CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA National Weather Service Climate Services Marina Livezey (Timofeyeva) OFCM 2nd Mini-Workshop on Hydrometeorological Products, Services and Supporting Research December 10, 2008

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Outline Needs and requirements Programs and initiatives Product suite and services (current and any experimental products/services) Potential benefits Challenges and gaps in products and services Research opportunities underway and planned to meet identified gaps Process for transitioning research into operational applications Related training, education and outreach activities

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Needs and Requirements “Past weather” data Climate guidance to national and local decision makers Information of climate variability and change physical mechanisms, predictability, predictions, and impacts Timely, continuous and reliable climate data Timely, continuous and reliable national and local climate forecasts Outreach activities, materials and trained staff

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA NOAA and NWS Climate Services NOAA Climate Program Office Interagency Climate Office Climate Board NCEP NMFS EMC NOSOARNESDISNWS Focal Points CPCCSD WFOs/ RFCs/WSOs Regional Manager RCCs ARSCOs OCWWSRegions RISAs IRI Matrix Link CSC, OCM, CWISE FY 2001 FY 2003 NCDC NCO,ESRL GFDL

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Needs and Requirements NWS: provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure.... CSD: Ensure NWS is equipped to develop and deliver an end-to- end suite of climate variability and change products through strategic planning, user engagement, data stewardship, policy development, integration of research and assessments, partnerships, outreach, and training. CPC: Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Needs and Requirements

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Programs and Initiatives National Climate Programs and Initiatives oMonitoring climate variability oClimate assessments and diagnostic discussions oClimate forecasts oClimate Test Bed Regional and Local Climate Programs and Initiatives oBridging climate user needs and product requirements oClimate observing system and data records oLocal climate data and forecast products oLocal climate outreach oTraining climate services staff

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Product Suite and Services: National Extended Range Outlooks: (6-10 and 8-14) Long Range Outlooks (Monthly and 3-Months) Assessments: Hazards, Drought, MJO, Global Ocean Special Outlooks: Hurricane, Winter, African Rainfall Bulletins: Climate Variability, Stratospheric Ozone, Weekly Weather and Crop

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Product Suite and Services: National Examples Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts 3-Month Outlooks released monthly with 0.5 month lead for 13 3-month periods (categories: Above, Below, Near Normal and Equal Chances) 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlooks released daily with 6/8 day leads (categories: Above, Below and Normal)

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Product Suite and Services: Local Public interactive access to ““past weather NOAA Online Weather Data (NOWdata): 9 products, 3900 sites, 9 variables, 3 time periods Other online data products: oLast 3 month daily data oLast 5 year monthly/daily oThis year record events oLast year monthly site, regional and state summaries

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Product Suite and Services: Local Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks: Local information Multiple user centric formats Dynamic text interpretation Benefits and limitations Long term forecast evaluation Trained staff support

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Product Suite and Services: Local NWS local climate services support: Standardized local offices web site: Online data stewardship tools: xmACIS, Datzilla, ThredEx, etc. Local Climate Forecast Products (L3MTO) online package and display Outreach materials: factsheets, brochures, standard presentations, etc. Defining a process of transition from climate user need to NWS climate product requirements

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA NWS mission does not include projections of climate change for the future decades: maximum lead of NWS climate outlooks is 12.5 months for 3 month average temperature or total precipitation NWS local staff is able to provides different educational materials on local customers: o oFact sheets on Climate Change o oComprehensive summary on science of Global Climate Change o oIPCC report facts NWS is committed to provide the best quality climate observation that can be used in local climate change assessments. Besides the raw data, available local and regional climate change products include: o oRange of climate variability for climatology period and full records o oCurrent rate of trends in climate variables o oImpacts of other climate phenomena on trend adjusted climate variables Other NOAA line offices that provide information on climate change: o oNational Climatic Data Center o oEarth System Research Laboratory o oNational Oceanographic Data Center o oGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab Product Suite and Services: Climate Change Issues

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Potential Benefits Seamless suite of climate products and services National and local climate information 24h 7days/week operational services Growing understanding of climate users and product usability and applications

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Challenges and Gaps in Products and Services Barriers on the way for climate outlook use: products misinterpretation, lack of verification information, confusing and inconsistent language (Hartmann, 2002) Skill is variable for different seasons, areas and forecast periods Growing need for Climate Change information Impacts and applicability of climate products

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Research Opportunities CSD activities bridging NWS user needs and product requirements Claes Fornell International (CFI) Group Surveys (2004, 2009) Annual Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop (CPASW): March 24-27, 2009, Norman OK Feedback option for local climate forecast products Annual NWS local offices reporting of local climate users needs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISAs) findings and reports American Association of State Climatologists (AASC) annual meetings

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Development Opportunities Regional Climate Services oClimate extensions initiatives oRegional user climate meetings and workshops Local Climate Services o Reactive outreach: responding to specific user requests oProactive outreach services: local meetings, media statements, workshops on special products, etc.

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Process for Transitioning Research into Operations

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Process for Transitioning Research into Operations Prototype is developed internally by science and outreach experts Informal WFO internal review, questionnaire of selected partners & customers Experimental product is developed and enhanced by “Feedback” form Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions Operational product is developed and enhanced by “Feedback” form Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions Adjustment Multi-tiered Approach in Incorporating Users Feedback

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA Training, Education and Outreach Climate Services Training includes 2 courses and ~30 online distance learning modules Local public education materials (factsheets, standard presentations, brochures) are available at any local offices