Www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/ GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report Peter Oke 1 and Gilles Larnicol 2 1 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric.

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GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report Peter Oke 1 and Gilles Larnicol 2 1 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric.

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Presentation transcript:

GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report Peter Oke 1 and Gilles Larnicol 2 1 CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; 2 CLS November 2011 “The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’, but ‘That’s funny…’ ”, Isaac Asimov ( )

GOV OSEVal-TT organisation Co-Chairs:  Peter Oke (CSIRO)  Gilles Larnicol (CLS) Core Members:  Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)  Laurent Bertino (NERSC)  Gary Brassington (BoM)  Jim Cummings (NRL)  Yosuke Fujii (JMA/MRI)  Pat Hogan (NRL)  Villy Kourafalou (Univ. Miami)  Daniel Lea (UKMet)  Matthew Martin (UKMet)  Avichal Mehra (NOAA)  Pavel Sakov (NERSC)  Anthony Weaver (CERFACS) Associate members:  Mike Bell (UKMet)  Eric Dombrowsky (Mercator)  Fabrice Hernandez (Mercator)  Eric Lindstrom (NASA)  Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Framework for Ocean Observing: where GODAE OceanView fits Contributed by E. Lindstrom, OOPC Chair, NASA GOV OSEval-TT GODAE OceanView

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Capability building: GODAE and GOV OSEval Workshops 1 st GODAE OSE/OSSE workshop (November 2007, UNESCO, Paris)  OSEval-TT established 2 nd GOV OSEVal-TT workshop (June 2009, CLS, Toulouse)  Initiation of Routine Monitoring activities  OSEval-TT work plan (draft) GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR GSOP workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-comparisons (June 2011, Santa Cruz, CA, USA)  Extension and expansion of NRT OSEs (3 groups plan to participate; others may participate)  Concept of “Observation Impact Statement” introduced

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Example of an OSE (with-holding XBT) OSEs using HYCOM after the DWH Oil spill to assess the impact of XBT data Halliwell et al. (NRL & NOAA)

Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD

Impact of P-3 Observations on Ocean Analyses Collaboration between AOML and NRL-Stennis –NRL ran two experiments with the 1/25° regional HYCOM: 1. Assimilate all observations 2. Deny only the P3 observations Critical issues affecting this evaluation: –Results depend on choices of model and DA scheme –Impact of update cycle –Impact of relative weighting of synthetic T,S profiles derived from altimetry vs. in-situ T,S profiles Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD

RED: With P3 assimilation BLACK: No P3 assimilation Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD No assimilation ~ 4-5 degrees No assimilation < 0.5 No assimilation +- 1 degree

ExperimentBias (°C)RMS Diff. (°C) Skill Score P-3 Profiles Assimilated P-3 Profiles Denied No Data Assimilation Error Analysis, Nancy Foster T Profiles, 9 July ExperimentBias (°C)RMS Diff. (m) Skill Score P-3 Profiles Assimilated P-3 Profiles Denied < 0 No Data Assimilation < 0 20°C isotherm depth Temperature, 30 – 360 m Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD 8-10 July

Oke, P., and P. Sakov: Design and Assessment of the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System Simple method to assess the potential impact of data from moorings

Footprint of individual moorings Cabbage Patch Mooring Deep Slope Mooring

Footprint of individual moorings

SA-IMOS regional moorings array Intraseasonal SSH Intraseasonal SSV

Combined “footprint” for NRSs on interannual time-scales MODELObservations SSH SST

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments  Many examples of research in this area at the GODAE OceanView – CLIVAR GSOP workshop … refer to GOV-CLIVAR WS report

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Responses to “observing system events”  Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)  UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages Contributed by G. Brassington, BoM

NRT OSEs  Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and with-hold a different data each month:  Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts  Multi-system approach Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 XBT TAO Jason-2 All altims SST Argo Feb 2012 Mar 2012 Apr 2012 May 2012 Jun 2012 Jul 2012 SST Argo XBT TAO Jason-2 All altims

NRT OSEs  Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and with-hold a different data each month:  Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts  Multi-system approach Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 May 2011 Jun 2011 Jul 2011 XBT TAO Jason-2 All altims SST Argo Feb 2012 Apr 2012 Jun 2012 Aug 2012 Oct 2012 Dec 2013 SST Argo XBT TAO Jason-2 All altims

Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT) Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Routine Monitoring of the GOOS Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs for short-range and seasonal forecast systems Design and evaluation of new and future observation system components Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Provision and management of Observation Impact Statements (OIS) based on OSEval evidence Capacity Building

Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)  24

Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)

Summary  OSEval-TT Work plan completed (but living )  GODAE OceanView OSEval-TT are committed to supporting observation agencies/teams in demonstrating the impact of observations on forecast and analysis products  Many groups are undertaking research activities  Recent initiatives have motivated many developments at operational centers :  DFS, analysis sensitivity, forecast sensitivity  The OSEval-TT proposed the idea of NRT OSEs; and are promoting the idea of Observation Impact Statements (OISs) (fom C. Conlon)  Details of schedule, reporting, dissemination and engagement with GOV Patrons will be refined offline  Considering review article of OSEval achievements (expand on Oceanography special issue)  Resources for OSE / IV work ???