Lender Processing Services 1 ONE SOURCE. POWERFUL SOLUTIONS. : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : LPS Applied.

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Presentation transcript:

Lender Processing Services 1 ONE SOURCE. POWERFUL SOLUTIONS. : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing Presented to the Mortgage Bankers Association of Jacksonville

Lender Processing Services 2 August prepayment rates hit the highest levels since 2005

Lender Processing Services 3 High LTV non-government originations are up over 75% YTD

Lender Processing Services 4 In Florida, high LTV non-government originations have more than tripled

Lender Processing Services 5 High LTV prepayment rates in Florida are lower than national

Lender Processing Services 6 Fewer than 30% of 2007 and prior vintages remain active and current

Lender Processing Services 7 Despite historically low rates, origination activity is still limited

Lender Processing Services 8 Florida origination activity has increased over the last six months

Lender Processing Services 9 “30,000 foot view”: Delinquencies are improving, foreclosures still near highs House prices peak House prices drop 20% Over 3 MM loan mods Fed rate intervention

Lender Processing Services 10 From 2005 to 2009 the crisis spread nationwide, impacting all regions

Lender Processing Services 11 The State of the Union today: Regional improvement but still trouble spots Top 10 State Non Current% FL21.1% MS16.9% NV16.1% NJ16.0% IL13.6% NY13.2% MD12.9% LA12.7% RI12.7% ME12.6% Bottom 10 State Non- Current% ID7.8% VA7.2% NE6.2% MN6.2% CO6.0% MT5.4% AK5.1% WY4.9% SD4.7% ND3.6%

Lender Processing Services 12 Non-judicial states have experienced greater improvement Non-Judicial: Down 31% from peak Judicial: Down 13% from peak Few non-judicial states remain close to peak levels Washington, NJ and Vermont are still at historic highs

Lender Processing Services 13 Even where improvement is evident, magnitude varies Total non-current in Lee County was 1.4x of Jacksonville MSA at the peak

Lender Processing Services 14 On average, Jacksonville modification rates have been higher than FL & US

Lender Processing Services 15 Foreclosure starts still outnumber sales by more than 2:1

Lender Processing Services 16 Florida foreclosure starts outnumber sales by almost 3:1 over last 12 months

Lender Processing Services 17 Foreclosure start activity has increased in judicial states

Lender Processing Services 18 First-time starts lowest since ’08; repeat foreclosure rate at new high

Lender Processing Services 19 70% of FL foreclosure starts were “repeats”; first time at multi-year lows

Lender Processing Services 20 Foreclosure inventory in Florida has declined, but still extremely high

Lender Processing Services 21 The average loan in foreclosure is 622 days past due (ex FL, NY and NJ) Excluded from Average Florida = 932 New Jersey = 934 New York = 953

Lender Processing Services 22 Timelines are long nation-wide, but judicial states are 1.4x non-judicial

Lender Processing Services 23 Foreclosure timelines vary significantly within states Top 5 Counties County Days Delinquent For Foreclosure Inventory Monroe County1,074 Miami-Dade County1,058 Walton County1,044 Flagler County994 Palm Beach County989 Bottom 5 Counties County Days Delinquent For Foreclosure Inventory Lafayette County744 Holmes County744 Hardee County741 Alachua County717 Wakulla County695 Over 1 year timeline difference The average loan in foreclosure in Florida is over 2.5 years past due

Lender Processing Services 24 Foreclosure sale activity is driven by regional processes and restrictions

Lender Processing Services 25 Judicial and other legal actions have had significant effects on pipelines

Lender Processing Services 26 With more distressed homes on the market, price pressure may continue

Lender Processing Services 27 “30,000 foot view” (HPI Edition): Some signs of stabilization Home buyer tax credit expiration Fed rate intervention Easy credit, affordability products Collapse of non-agency market Long term trend?

Lender Processing Services 28 The FL bubble was muted in JAX; local home prices down more than US

Lender Processing Services 29 Even within zip codes price activity varies significantly

Lender Processing Services 30 National REO and short sales prices are about 75% of non-distressed

Lender Processing Services 31 REO discounts have improved in several states

Lender Processing Services 32 REO discount in FL was lower than that of short sale for the first time

Lender Processing Services 33 Nationally, 18% of current loans remain under-water Top 10 State Negative Equity % NV54.7% GA42.8% FL33.1% MI29.8% AZ28.4% IL27.4% ID24.1% CA23.7% MD23.4% WA22.2% Bottom 10 State Negative Equity % DC3.3% TX3.2% IN2.9% MT2.8% OK2.6% LA2.5% IA2.4% NE1.3% ND1.0% WY0.4%

Lender Processing Services 34 Negative equity and new problem loan correlation is clear by geography

Lender Processing Services 35 Relative price stability has supported improvement in new problem loans House prices peak House prices drop 20%

Lender Processing Services 36 Further house price declines could lead to more new problems

Lender Processing Services 37 What data are out there? LOAN BORROWER PROPERTY LOAN LEVEL DATA CREDIT BUREAU DATA PUBLIC RECORDS HPI LOSS MIT

Lender Processing Services 38 LPS Loan Data (McDash) DatabaseKey StatisticsDetails Core First Lien Data set 38+ million active loans (140+ million historically) 10 of the top 10 servicing portfolios 70% of market Data collected monthly directly from servicers. Full credit spectrum with updates released 15 days after month end. 80+ fields in core database including loan attributes and collateral characteristics with loan level edit checks. No non-public personal information. Home Equity Data set 7+ million fixed rate 2nds and LOCs Data collected monthly directly from servicers. Includes 2nds, HELOCs, and HE loans/lines. 50+ fields in home equity database including loan attributes and collateral characteristics with loan level edit checks. No non-public personal information.