______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO OUTLOOK FOR 20/ DWT PRODUCT TANKERS INTERTANKO 24.OKTOBER 2001 LORENTZEN & STEMOCO AS FINN ENGELSEN JR

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO HOW CAN YOU FORECAST ANYTHING DURING THESE UNCERTAIN TIMES ?

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO UNDERSTANDING THE PRESENT IS THE KEY TO FORECASTING THE FUTURE!

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO ELEMENTS OF FORECASTING The basic picture Trade generating factors Shipping consequential analysis

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO THE BASIC PICTURE THE WORLD POLITICAL SITUATION THE GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH.

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO THE BASIC PICTURE THE WORLD POLITICAL SITUATION THE GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH THE COST OF ENERGY OPEC’S MANAGEMENT OF THE OIL PRICE

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES TRADE ANALYSIS

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS DEVELOPMENTS IN WORLD OIL DEMAND TRENDS IN WORLD OIL REFINING ANALYSIS OF REQUIRED PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS REGIONAL CAPACITY STUDIES AND PRODUCT BALANCES TRADE ANALYSIS US IMPORTS GASOLINE EUROPE IMPORTS JET/KERO BOTH US/EUROPE IMPORT HEATING OIL ASIA IMPORTS NAPHTA ASIA REQUIRES NAPHTA FROM MEG, BUT IS SURPLUS LOWGRADE GASOLINE/GASOIL MEG EXPORTS LOW GRADE GASOIL+JET TO ATLANTIC BASIN

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TRADE GENERATING FACTORS US natural gas - low production and very tight stocks caused prices to rise sharply last winter Henry Hub Natural Gas USG 1 pct Fuel oil …..Recent high filling rates suggests a better balance

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND ARBITRAGE ANALYSIS AND INITIAL FREIGHT RATE ASSESSMENT

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND ARBITRAGE ANALYSIS AND INITIAL FREIGHT RATE ASSESSMENT

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______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND ARBITRAGE ANALYSIS AND INITIAL FREIGHT RATE ASSESSMENT

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF DEMAND ARBITRAGE ANALYSIS AND INITIAL FREIGHT RATE ASSESSMENT DETAILED KNOWLEDGE OF FLEETSTRUCTURE SIZE & AGE DISTRIBUTION OWNERSHIP FUTURE FLEETDEVELOPMENT NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES ANTICIPATED SCRAPPING

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS Current fleet size: 917 / 33,32 mill dwt. (12 OBO carriers) Newbuildings on order: 162 / 6,4 mill dwt There are 64 vessels / 2,4 mill dwt under US Flag. Nr. of units to be phased out by: 2003: : : : 59 Total vessels to be phased out : 281 vessels / 8,83 mill dwt.

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO SHIPPING CONSEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS ( CONTINUED ) MARKETBALANCE & RATEFORECAST

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO HANDY PRODUCT CARRIERS EVENT SHEET 1997 THE END OF THE ASIA BOOM 1998 VERY DRAB MARKET CAUSED BY COLLAPSE IN ASIAN DEMAND 1999 EVEN MORE DRAB MARKET CAUSED BY CONTINUED SLACK DEMAND AND OVERSUPPLY 2000 BIG RECOVERY DUE TO LOW PRODUCT STOCKS AND HUGE US GAS SUBSTITUTION DEMAND 2001 GLORIOUS START, MASSIVE ORDERING FOLLOWED BY DRAB END 2002 VERY WEAK DEMAND, SCRAPPING ACCELERATES BUT THE FLEET IS GROWING 2003 US/ASIA RECOVER CAUSING SWIFT UPSWING IN DEMAND AND RATES 2004 DEMAND STABILIZES AS THE FLEET CONTINUE TO GROW LETS HOPE ITS OK……..

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO OSLO TANK GAS DRY CARGO SALE & PURCHASE NEW BUILDINGS OFFSHORE / PROJECTS CONSULTING FUTURES HONG KONG DRY CARGO SINGAPORE DRY CARGO SHANGHAI NEWBUILDINGS SALE & PURCHASE

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO YOUR FUTURE OUR CHALLENGE

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ?

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST ANALYSIS OF FORWARD COVER

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST ANALYSIS OF FORWARD COVER EVALUATION OF SHIPBUILDING CURRENCIES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST ANALYSIS OF FORWARD COVER EVALUATION OF SHIPBUILDING CURRENCIES REGIONAL CAPACITY ANALYSIS

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST ANALYSIS OF FORWARD COVER EVALUATION OF SHIPBUILDING CURRENCIES FORECAST NEWBUILDING PRICES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO PROVIDE ADVISE INVESTMENT STRATEGIES BUY OR SELL TONNAGE NEWBUILDING OR SECONDHAND? CHARTER IN OR OUT TIMING HEDGING STRATEGIES

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______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO ARE JAPANESE BUILDERS GOING TO SUFFER MORE THAN KOREAN BUILDERS ? LET US LOOK AT THE CROSS YEN/WON...

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO FURTHER CONSEQUENTIAL SHIPPING ANALYSIS DO WE HAVE SUFFICIENT SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY ? PRODUCTION FORECAST ANALYSIS OF FORWARD COVER EVALUATION OF SHIPBUILDING CURRENCIES FORECAST NEWBUILDING PRICES

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO KOREAN YARDS MAINTAIN A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

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______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO INVESTMENT IN 5 YEAR OLD TONNAGE IS INTERESTING IF YOU ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE CYCLE……...

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO VESSEL DEMAND BUILDING CAPACITY LOCAL CURRENCIES USD BUILDING PRICE = THREE PREREQUSITES FOR STABILE BUILDING PRICES FORECAST ?

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO LORENTZEN & STEMOCO AS OSLO SINGAPORE SHANGHAI BROKERS AND CONSULTANTS FOR THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO THE BASIC PICTURE THE WORLD POLITICAL SITUATION THE GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH THE COST OF MONEY

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO WHY DO WE NEED SHIPPING ANALYSTS ?

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO “IF YOU ARE NOT A BUYER YOU ARE A SELLER”

______________________________________________ LORENTZEN & STEMOCO TO EXPLAIN WHY THINGS DID NOT DEVELOP AS THEY PREDICTED?