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Jan 20, 2011 Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum Henry Curra, ACM Shipping.

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Presentation on theme: "Jan 20, 2011 Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum Henry Curra, ACM Shipping."— Presentation transcript:

1 Jan 20, 2011 Is Tanker Demand Growing Fast Enough? 2nd Annual Marine Money London Ship Finance Forum Henry Curra, ACM Shipping

2 2 VLCC Panamax Crude / DPP tanker spot earnings ($/day) Aframax 5 Yr Average 2009 2010 2011 Suezmax

3 3 LR2 MR West CPP MR East CPP LR1 CPP tanker spot earnings ($/day) 5 Yr Average 200920102011

4 4 Newbuilding prices & freight earnings

5 5 Current global oil demand forecast 2.7m b/d 1.4m b/d

6 6 Floating Storage – Million barrels

7 7 Crude tonnage supply PHASE 1: MARKET SUPPORT PHASE 2: AGGRAVATED OVERSUPPLY PHASE 3: RETURN TO NORMALITY

8 8 Product tonnage supply

9 9 Oil in storage Million barrels

10 10 Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand *Top 6 Tonne-mile demand

11 11 Earnings Vs. tonnage oversupply

12 12 Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule 25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years Tonne-mile demand

13 13 Non-OPEC oil production

14 14 Non-OPEC oil supply outlook

15 15 Oil import forecast for 2011 ‘apparent’ oil import demand oil demand oil supply Annual change

16 16 Oil import forecast for 2011 ‘apparent’ oil import demand oil demand oil supply Annual change

17 17 Oil import forecast for 2011 ‘apparent’ oil import demand oil demand oil supply Annual change

18 18 OPEC oil supply +3.4m b/d +6.0m b/d Spare production capacity

19 19 Current global oil demand forecast

20 20 Monthly crude oil imports

21 21 Monthly crude oil imports

22 22 Monthly crude oil imports

23 23 Monthly crude oil imports

24 24 Monthly crude oil imports

25 25 Crude tanker supply Vs. tonne-mile demand all NB’s deliver as per today’s delivery schedule 25% of 2011 and 10% of 2012 don’t deliver in those years X Tonne-mile demand

26 26 Fleet growth outlook assumptions

27 27 Fleet growth outlook assumptions

28 28 Fleet growth outlook assumptions Projected at start of year 16% 23% 32%25% 10%

29 29 Tanker fleet growth Forecast

30 30 Slide 30 ACM Research & Consulting ACM Shipping Limited Kinnaird House, 1 Pall Mall, London SW1Y 5AU Email: research@acmshipping.co.uk Head of Research: Henry Curra hcurra@acmshipping.co.uk Tel: +44(0)207 484 6369

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