David Cahen How do Materials Affect Energy Sustainability ? Energy Limits Materials Availability esp. Sustainable Availability ✔ but …. Do Materials Limit Energy Availability, esp. Sustainable Availability ? with Igor Lubomirsky

David Cahen but what about the inverse i.e., does sustainable materials availability affect sustainable energy availability ? How will transitioning to new energy technologies affect materials production and consumption? Do we have the technological abilities to adapt? If yes, how? Sustainable Energy availability defines the range of Materials that can be used sustainably

David Cahen World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

David Cahen More than 90% of coal is used for three purposes only: Electricity Steel Cement

David Cahen If a technologically and economically viable energy alternative exists, can it be implemented and if it can, to what extent* and how fast?** * ≤ few %, or 10  few 10s of % of global energy use ? ** weeks, months, years, decades ? Why do we have to consider these questions ?

David Cahen Questions: 1.How much energy can be diverted without major disruptions to living standards? how flexible is energy consumption structure? 2. Can limitations on materials availability affect (energy) technology transitions ? Postulate Transition to new technologies requires diversion of materials and energy

David Cahen Well.. what is energy used for? ( = most of the “industry” part) 2010 Why do we have to consider these questions ? Because energy consumption is highly specialized.

David Cahen Can some of this energy be redirected? Consider Transportation (nearly 30% of total)? Only ~8% of personal fuel consumption is “ purely ” recreational (~1.6% of all transportation, 0.5 % of total) ! “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010) Energy usage in transportation in the US 2010

David Cahen Residential? (~ 25 % of total) Major fraction (>85%) is for heating and air conditioning. Commercial services? (~ 10 % of total) Energy consumption can be cut … at expense of important services From past* experience ~10% (  3.5% of total) *: e.g., 2008/9 Can some residential or commercial services energy use be redirected? “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

David Cahen Can some of the energy for materials processing be redirected? “Hidden costs of energy; Unpriced consequences of energy production and use”, The National Academies press, Washington DC (2010)

David Cahen Production of 5 materials requires > 50% of all energy for industry / materials processing (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult) % (6%) 1.4% (7%) 2% (10%) 6% (30%) > 4% (> 30%) 3% (15%) Because these 5 materials are vital, only a small part of the energy used for industry can be really diverted

David Cahen Can energy expenses for materials processing decrease with time? YES, but it takes time…* * e.g., 3-D Printing

David Cahen Decreasing energy cost of material extraction from ore pig iron Al smelting energy intensity (MJ/kg) production (x 10 6 tonnes) TD limit TD limit 2009 from :

David Cahen embodied energy (MJ/kg) Price of material (US$/kg) From: The importance of “embodied energy” of materials embodied energy (MJ/kg) Dilution (1/concentration)(x10 6 tonnes) embodied energy (MJ/kg) world production/consumption (x10 6 tonnes)

David Cahen Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase. WHY? because improved extraction technology is offset by decreased quality and ore exhaustion Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials.. Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006) COPPER Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase,

David Cahen and because of increased energy cost of extraction with decreasing ore quality Energy and greenhouse gas implications of deteriorating quality ore reserves; T.Norgate and S. Jahanshahi; CSIRO Minerals/Centre for Sustainable Resource Processing; URL : Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, COPPER

David Cahen Still, the fraction of materials in the total energy balance is likely to increase, Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials.. Gordon, R. B., Bertram, M., and Graedel, T. E.: Metal stocks and sustainability, PNAS, 103(5), 1209 (2006) COPPER because discovery of new ores does not compensate for exhaustion

David Cahen Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use?

David Cahen Material intensity * decreases steadily * quantity of materials per unit of product decreases) USA UK Japan Does it mean that materials consumption will decrease? F.Krausmann et al. The socio-metabolic transition. Long term historical trends...

David Cahen Mineral/fossil Biomass Well,…materials consumption / capita INCREASES because … living standards rise Krausmann at al… 2009 Domestic Materials Consumption

David Cahen and, thus, absolute materials consumption accelerates exponentially F. Krausmann, …., M. Fischer-Kowalski, Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics, 68(10), (2009). also per capita !!

David Cahen Can materials consumption be restricted by increased efficiency of their use? Maybe, but it’ll take time…

David Cahen Availability of materials Can supply of materials be increased rapidly if technological need arises?

David Cahen Natural Abundance of Elements in Earth’s Crust can be misleading

David Cahen Price scales as a power law with abundance John R. Boyce, Biased Technological Change and the Relative Abundance of Natural Resources

David Cahen from Cu from Zn from Cu-Mo Low price relative to abundance from Zn from Zn, Cu, Pd Price scales as a power law with abundance

David Cahen Production volumes should also scale with abundance Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

David Cahen Can the supply of materials that are (mining) by-products* be increased rapidly if technological need arises? by-products * contrast Se, Te, Ga, Cd,In,with primary (mining) products such as Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Sn, Pb, cement, phosphate Availability of materials produced as

David Cahen How does the need for materials that use mining by-products affect abilities to switch to renewable energy sources?

David Cahen materials for solar cells (valid until we pro-/re-gress[ed] to Pb…) Let’s look at

David Cahen L. Peter, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 1840–1856 doi: /rsta Data for some thin film “PV elements” ppm $ / tonne Material’s availability for (thin film) PV: CdTe, CIGS tonnes/yr Annual production of some “PV elements” ABUNDANCE in earth’s crust COST

David Cahen Annual production of Te in 2010 is 150 tonne (from Cu refinement) Current recovery rate is 33–40% Increasing installed CdTe PV capacity from current 0.01 TW p e to 0.1 TW p e requires a few times increase in Cu production. In 2008 Cu production used 0.08% of world energy. Increasing production by a few times will not be possible (quickly). Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) and Fthenakis, V.: Sustainability metrics for extending thin- film photovoltaics to terawatt levels, MRS Bulletin, 37(4), 425 (2012).

David Cahen ResourceAvailability, in metric tonsYears to exhaustion with the current consumption rate and technology Annual production including recycling Known resources Indium (Zn,Al) N/AProbably <10 Gallium (Al, Zn) N/AProbably <10 Tellurium (Cu) , Selenium (Cu) 2009 (US declined to disclose) 2,28088,00039 Cadmium (Zn) ,000660,00030 Similar calculations can be done for other materials Increase in Ga (or In) production requires increase in Al production Data from Minerals Yearbook ( US Geological survey) How large can the increase be? Only 10% of Al producers extract Ga Seems practically impossible But Si, Ti, Pb and organics… are available in really large quantities

David Cahen Approximate energy cost production (GJ t -1 ) Primary products Aluminum188 Steel29 Copper135 Cement6 Iron ore3 Lead31 Zinc76 Phosphate0.35 Secondary products Gallium50 Germanium40 Indium40 Selenium116 Tellurium116 Cadmium Listed energy cost of the byproducts (excluding price of primary product) Gupta and Hall.. Energy cost of materials..

David Cahen (large) increase in by-product production requires (large) increase in production of corresponding primary product maybe possible (or find alternatives), but not on short time* scales So, where does this leave us? * weeks /months/few years

David Cahen Can recycling help? Yes, at least partially Current recycling Apparent Extraction Level (%)Efficiency (%) Pb >90 2 Fe Al Sn >50 12 Mg >40 7 Cu >25 3 Asphalt >75 -- (in USA) Ammonia (fertilizer) none -- Cement (  concrete) minor

David Cahen But sizeable fraction of materials (still) can’t be / aren’t recycled Recycled already >50% (Haber-Bosch) (Hall-Héroult)

David Cahen We will need time to have flexibility in our ability to divert energy resources to new technologies. 2.Whether or not we can increase production of materials will depend on abundance and on if they are by-products. 3.Recycling can provide partial relief for a lot, though not all “major” materials. Conclusions: Sustainable energy availability  sustainable materials availability?Sustainable energy availability is not exactly or always sustainable materials availability So, here is your challenge: We need new ideas