1 What If… The Washington Region Grew Differently? February 2005 Public Meeting on Alternative Transportation and Land-Use Scenarios National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

2 Study of “What If” Scenarios  What if job and housing growth were shifted? What if new roads or transit were built?  How would 2030 travel conditions change?  Not looking at “how to,” just “what if.”

3 Historical and Forecast Trends

4 The Washington Region  Approximately 3,000 square miles  Includes 4.5 million people and 2.8 million jobs  The National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) prepares a financially constrained, 30-year transportation plan for the region

5 Employment is Growing Faster than Population 1970: 3 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 1970: 1.5 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2000: 4.5 Million 2030: 6.2 Million 2000: 2.8 Million 2030: 4.2 Million

6 The Highway System Won’t Keep Pace 2000: 109 Million 2030: 150 Million 2000: 15,300 Miles 2030: 17,600 Miles

7 Most Transportation Dollars Are Needed for Maintenance Little money is available for new transportation projects 23% 77% New Roads and Transit* Operations & Preservation* * Based on region’s 2003 Constrained Long-Range Plan

8 Most of the Beltway Will Be Stop and Go Evening Highway Congestion 2000 and 2030 Congested Flow (Average Speed 30 to 50 mph) Stop and Go Conditions (Average Speed < 30 mph)

9 Land Use Scenarios What are the key issues?

10 Issue #1: Job Growth is Outpacing Household Growth The region must “import” workers from as far away as West Virginia and Pennsylvania Forecast Job Growth Forecast Household Growth Additional Households Needed to Balance Jobs Growth 2010 – 2030 (Thousands) Assumes 1.5 Workers/Household

11 What if more people who worked here lived here? VA WV Balt. Scenario #1: “More Households”  Increase household growth to balance forecast job growth  Locate households in regional “Activity Clusters” Regional Activity Cluster Increase household growth by 200,000

12 Issue #2: Workers are Living Farther Away from Their Jobs  Inner jurisdictions – most job growth  Outer jurisdictions – lion’s share of household growth The average commute is more than 30 minutes.

13 What if people lived closer to their jobs? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 84,000 households Scenario #2A: “Households In”  Shift household growth to inner jurisdictions (to get people closer to jobs)

14 What if jobs were located closer to where people live? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 82,000 jobs Scenario #2B: “Jobs Out”  Shift job growth to outer jurisdictions (to get jobs closer to new housing)

15 Issue #3: East-West Divide Job Growth Rate 1990 – 2000 A 1999 Brookings Institution report highlighted disparities between the eastern and western parts of the region

16 Issue #3: East-West Divide West-bound travel clogs the roads during morning rush hour Average Commute Time Morning Rush Hour Up to 30 minutes Up to 40 minutes Over 40 minutes

17 What if there were more development on the eastern side of the region? Regional Activity Cluster Shift 57,000 households and 114,000 jobs Scenario #3: “Region Undivided”  Shift job and household growth from West to East

18 Issue #4: Most Growth Located Outside Transit Station Areas Household Growth 2010 to 2030 Inside Transit Station Areas Outside Transit Station Areas Employment Growth 2010 to % 70% 20% 80%

19 What if people lived and worked closer to transit? Metro Rail Commuter Rail Bus Shift 125,000 households and 150,000 jobs Scenario #4: “Transit Oriented”  Locate job and household growth around transit stations

20 Analyzing the Scenarios

21 Vehicle Miles of Travel Per Person Forecast Change in VMT per capita, VMT per capita in 2010: 23.4 miles per person per day

22 Under the “More Households” Scenario, the average person would drive two miles less per day Baseline: 24.2 miles/ person 2030 Scenario #1: 22.1 miles/ person

23 Transit Use Forecast percentage-point change In transit mode share, Transit mode-share in 2010: 16%

24 Morning Congestion Forecast change in lane-miles of peak-period AM congestion, Lane miles of congestion in 2010: 1,700 miles

25 What do the scenarios tell us?

26 The scenarios show some favorable trends.  Transit trips would increase.  The growth in morning congestion would be slowed.

27 Why aren’t the impacts greater?

28 Most jobs and housing for 2030 are already in place. Households in 2000 Growth by 2010 Growth by 2030 Affected by scenarios 2030 Households 72% 13% 15% Underway or in the pipeline Already in place (Of course, some of this might be rezoned or redeveloped in the future…)

29 Significant change takes time. Courtesy of WMATA  Scenarios only look out to 2030, but impacts may be greatest in 2040, 2050, and beyond  For example, just look at how long it took to get Metro in place...

30 Scenario impacts may be large locally, but small regionally. Before After

31 Is there a way to magnify the impacts?

32 = ? + New roads, bridges, transit Future stages of the study will include transportation scenarios… The impacts might be greater if transportation improvements were added. For example:

33 Impacts might be even greater if we combined scenarios. For example, what if we combined: Scenario #3 (Region Undivided) Scenario #4 (Transit Oriented Development) and transportation improvements ? + = ? Future stages of the study will look at such combinations… New roads, bridges, transit +

34 Next Study Phase  Alternative transportation scenarios  New rail lines?  New bus routes?  New roads?  New bridges?  Combining transportation and land use scenarios Baseline Alternative Land Use Scenarios 3 Alternative Transportation Scenarios 4 Combining Scenarios

35 For more information, contact the Transportation Planning Board: (202)