1. Dulles Metro Extension Phase I: Tyson’s Corner Martene Bryan Luis Serna Matt Zarit

2. Dulles Metro Extension Phase I: Tyson’s Corner Introduction Cost Benefits Sensitivity Analysis Conclusion

3. Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) WMATA was created by an Interstate Compact to plan, develop, build, finance and operate transportation system in the region. 1967 Construction begins 1969 First phase of Metrorail began operation 1976 Original 103-mile network is completed 2001 Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf

4. The Current Metrorail System Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm

5. Metrorail is a crucial part of the DC region Source: http://wmata.com/about/metrofacts.pdf Serves 3.5 million people 195 million trips were taken in 2005 Creating $522 million in passenger revenue According to WMATA, 42% of those working in the center core, which includes DC and parts of Arlington County use mass transit.

6. WMATA receives funding from various sources in the region Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm

7. Metrorail serves a 1,500 square-mile area Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm

8. The Dulles Metro Extension will connect the western part of Fairfax County and Loudoun County to the rail system Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm 23 miles extension would extend from West Falls Church Metro station to a new line to the airport in two phases. Our analysis focuses on Phase I of construction to Tyson’s Corner, VA

9. The New Metrorail System Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/Dec8/project_overview/images/5_systemMap.jpg

10. Partners of Phase I Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/about/partners.cfm WMATA Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation Dulles Transit Partners, LLC Federal Transit Administration Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Virginia Department of Transportation Fairfax County Loudoun County

11. Phase I: Silver Line Source: http://wmata.com/metrorail/systemmap.cfm Design Build Agreement May 2006 Full Funding Agreement October 2006 Construction Starts December 2006 Revenue Operations Begins 2011

12. Phase I: Tyson’s Corner Source:http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/tysons_map_large_mar06.pdf

13. Costs Capital costs Operating costs Funding Government revenue lost Lack of consistent funding

14. Projected Capital Costs (in millions) Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

15. Projected Operating Costs Projected at $47.47 million per year Assumption: 3.0% inflation (in millions) Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.

16. Funding Sources Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.

17. Federal Funding Section 5309 Federal Grants Program: Designated for transit projects in urban areas with a population over 50,000 The federal money must be matched by local and/or state funds Source: NCDOT “Section 5309 Grant Program” http://www.ncdot.org/transit/transitnet/PublicInfo/TransitFinance/Grants/5309.html.

18. State Funding $74.3 million of taxpayer money Revenues from the Dulles Toll Road are estimated to bring in $161.2 million $145 million in bonds Source: Federal Transit Administration. “Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project – Extension to Wiehle Avenue. Nov 2004. www.fta.dot.gov/documents/VA_Dulles_Ext_2006.doc.

19. Local Funding Fairfax County Transportation Improvement District Temporary tax area in Fairfax County and the Town of Herndon on commercial and industrial properties Landowners will be charged between 22 and 29 cents for every $100 of assessed property Expected to produce $380.5 million Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

20. Lost Revenues Increased use of public transit will decrease the amount of cars on the road Gas taxes: Virginia: 18% District of Columbia: 20% Federal: 18% Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx & http://www.gaspricewatch.com/usgastaxes.asphttp://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspxhttp://www.gaspricewatch.com/usgastaxes.asp

21. Lost Revenues Estimated net reduction in vehicle miles traveled: 251,600,000 in 2011 Decreasing to 153,800,000 by 2025 Assumptions: 20 miles per gallon 2/3 of people get their gas in Virginia 1/3 of people get their gas in D.C. Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdfhttp://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf

22. Estimated Losses Average losses per year Virginia: $1,467,548 District of Columbia: $405,400 Federal government: $1,864,840 Total government loss from reduction in revenues: $3,737,788 Source: http://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspxhttp://www.virginiagasprices.com/tax_info.aspx

23. Other Funding Problem No dedicated source of funding for operating costs Federal money cannot pay for operating costs About half of operating costs are paid for by fares, parking and advertising The shortfall is made up by affected jurisdictions in Maryland, Virginia and DC on a year-by-year basis Source: Puentes, Robert. “Washington Metro: Deficits by Design.” The Brookings Institute June 2004. http://www.brookings.edu/urban/publications/20040603_puentes.htm.

24. The Benefits of riding the metro Commuter Savings Social Benefits Jobs to the Region

25. To calculate commuter savings, we used some assumptions Each new rider would have driven The avg. # of miles traveled per day (20) – The distance from Tyson’s Corner to L’Enfant The avg. miles per gallon (20) – The average between a 4 cylinder sedan and an SUV Opportunity Cost ($30.43/hour) – The average wage in the DC Metro area Sources: http://www.mapquest.com; http://www.toyota.com/4runner/specs.html; http://www.toyota.com/images/vehicles/2007/camry/specs.pdf; Arlington VA June 2005 Employment & Wages Reporthttp://www.mapquest.comhttp://www.toyota.com/4runner/specs.html http://www.toyota.com/images/vehicles/2007/camry/specs.pdf

26. Assumptions for commuter savings are based on the avg. # of miles traveled & hours driven per year

27. The average new metro rider saves more then $10k/year in driving cost Source: Metro Cost Caculator http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

28. The metro costs to the average new rider are considerably less Source: Metro Fares & Hours: http://www.wmata.com/riding/hours_fares.cfm

29. The total benefit for each commuter in saved driving cost is enormous 10,370 – 2,593 = $7,777 per new rider # of projected new riders in year 2011 = 31,400 Total Benefit in 2011 = 31,400* 7,777  244.2 million This benefit increases every year as ridership of the metro extension increases Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 3, Appendeix C.” Summary of Effects http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/EA_Feb2006/DullesEA_AppendixC.pdf

30. To calculate social benefits, we looked at 3 quantifiable variables Crash Avoidance Pavement Deterioration Social Cost of Automobile Pollution

31. To determine social benefits, we examined net vehicle miles traveled reduced Projected net reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2011 is 251.6 million (FTA, 2004) Projected net reduction in vehicle miles traveled in 2025 is 153.8 million The average reduction in vehicle miles traveled during this time was 6.99 million per year Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 10: Evaluation of Alternatives Carried Forward.” Final Environmental Impact Statement http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_10.pdf.

32. To determine social benefits, their monetary value per automobile mile traveled Social benefit per mile of crash avoidance is 1.19 cents Social benefit per mile of pavement deterioration is.1 cents Social cost per mile of auto pollution is 1.33 cents Source: Federal Highway Administration.” 1997 Federal Highway Cost Allocation Study, 2000 Addendum http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/hcas/addendum.htm.

33. The combined social benefits are not substantial, but are significant

34. Assumptions were also necessary for determining job increase benefits Jobs without rail for 2025 Job Increase rate with rail at metro stations only for 2025 Average Salary for new jobs - $12/hour assuming most will be service jobs Employment is full time non-seasonal

35. The job benefit toward to the regional economy is significant, but is only calculated for 2005 Source: Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project “Chapter 8: Financial Analysis.” Final Environmental Impact Statement and Section 4(f) Evaluation http://www.dullesmetro.com/community/impact_report.cfm.

36. Our Sensitivity Analysis adjusts for inflated numbers and different discount rates Commuter savings inflation of 10 and 20 percent Capital costs increases of 10, 20, and 30 percent Discount Rates for each scenario of 5,6,7,8,9, & 10 percent

37. Silver Line CBA with no assumed errors looks very favorable

38. If capital costs were 10% more, rail is still beneficial

39. If capital costs were 20% more, rail is still beneficial

40. If capital costs were 30% more, rail is still beneficial

41. Even if capital costs increased by 40% and commuter benefits decreased by 20%, rail extension is favorable

42. Conclusion Regional Strengths Net Present Value of Silver Line Recommendations

43. Fairfax County and Loudoun County will continue to grow Source: http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_Chapter_3.pdf

44. Employment in Fairfax County Area Source: http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/wash_tech.htm and http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/fortune500.htmhttp://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/wash_tech.htm http://www.fairfaxcountyeda.org/fortune500.htm 25 of the Top 100 Federal Contractors General Dynamics Booz Allen Hamilton Bearing Point Six Fortune 500 companies Nextel Capital One Financial Sallie Mae

45. Net Present Value We recommend the construction of the Silver line The project creates a positive net benefit in the region The area can support this project because of regional stability