Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals N EWMONT January 2002.

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Presentation transcript:

Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals N EWMONT January 2002

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 1 Improving Market Fundamentals Primary Bullish Factors Outlook for Declining Gold Supply Strong Physical Demand Opportunities & Trends è Coordinated Industry Marketing Program Reduced Incentives for Hedge-Related Selling è Gold Market Dynamics Overview Promising Investment Environment

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 2 Outlook for Declining Gold Supply Significantly Slowing Production Growth New mine supply has slowed sharply in recent years Source: Gold Fields Mineral Services & USB Warburg. Year on Year % Change

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 3 Declining Leading Production Indicators Substantial reductions in capital programs and projects Significant cut-backs in exploration budgets CAPEX/Oz Produced for Large N.A. Producers Source: Goldman Sachs,GFMS, Metals Economics Group & Company Annual reports Outlook for Declining Gold Supply (continued) Exploration Spending & Average Gold Price

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 4 Sharpest Decline Expected Since 1976 Consolidation & fewer credible gold projects Little additional production for the next 5 years ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4, e Tonnes Mine production Central bank sales Old gold scrap Net hedging Implied disinvestment Source: Goldman Sachs outlook ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4, e2003e2005e2007e2009e Mine productionCentral bank sales Old gold scrap Net hedging Implied disinvestment Tonnes Global Gold Supply ( ) Global Gold Supply (10-Year Outlook) Outlook for Declining Gold Supply (continued)

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 5 Central Bank Agreement on Gold September 1999 Agreement between 15 European Central Banks termed the “Washington Agreement” è Austria, Germany, France, Italy, Holland, Belgium, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, European Central Bank Source: GFMS & JP Morgan Research Agreed to limit sales to 400 tonnes annually through 2004 Removed much of the uncertainty over future Central Banks sales & lending activities U.K. Central Bank 20 tonne bimonthly sales will be completed in 2Q 2002 Outlook for Declining Gold Supply (continued) Composition of C.B. Gold Holding

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 6 Strong Physical Demand Opportunities Solid Jewelry Demand Backed by Unprecedented Marketing Initiative Strong Physical Demand Growth Trends Initiation of Global Marketing Campaign è Estimated additional tonnes of gold jewellery demand by 2006 è Possible $30-$40/oz increase in spot price *McKinsey modelled changes in demand for gold jewellery as functions of changes in gold price, income per capita and population. There are very high correlations for most countries between actual recorded volumes and the model between 1980 and Source:Murenbeeld & Associates; GFMS; WGC; McKinsey analysis US Jewelry Demand

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 7 Reduced Incentives for Hedgers “To Hedge or Not to Hedge?” Views of Non-Hedgers è Preserve gold equity’s embedded option value –Maintain unlimited upside appreciation potential è Reduce the “supply acceleration” impact of hedging Views of Active Hedgers è Take advantage of gold’s contango to enhance revenues –Significantly reduced contango during 2001 è Reduce cash flow volatility & downside risk –Requires the sale of some gold upside optionality

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 8 Significantly Compressed Contango Declining US$ interest rates è + Stable to higher gold lease rates è = Lower contango At 1.0% contango, 1-year forward gold prices are less than $3 higher than spot prices Reduced Incentives for Hedgers Source: JP Morgan Research

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 9 Gold Market Dynamics Overview Central Bank Lending & Producer Hedging Overview Gold Players Central Bank Lending è Facilitates short selling Bullion Banks & Speculative Investors è Borrow gold & sell short è Require future gold flow to repay borrowed gold Gold Producers è Sell gold forward è Provides source of liquidity for short sales

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 10 Weakening US$ Could Improve Gold Price Gold Behaving as Currency è US$ trading at 16 year highs è Gold stocks can hedge against US$ weakness Source - JP Morgan US Trade Weighted Dollar versus Gold Price Strong Inverse Correlation USTW$ & US$ Gold Promising Investment Environment

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 11 Hedge funds less active in shorting gold Increasing US equity market uncertainty Increasing global economic uncertainty Gold Stocks Up 25% YTD, S&P500 Down 14% Source - M. Murenbeeld Associates Inc. Promising Investment Environment S&P 500 Index/Gold Price (1871–2001)

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 12 Changing Real Interest Rate Environment 90-Day T-Bill less 12 Month Inflation Rate Promising Investment Environment US$ Gold Prices Potential negative real interest rates The last time real interest rates were negative… è US$ gold prices rose from $330 to $410 per oz.

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 13 Gold Poised for Significant Upside Appreciation Mine output set to decline Industry marketing initiative holds significant potential Hedging market fundamentals deteriorating Central bank sales stabilizing World economic & political uncertainty increasing Improving Fundamentals - Conclusions

Newmont Mining Corporation January Gold Market Update Improving Fundamentals Page 14 Safe Harbor Statement PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT These materials include forward-looking information and statements are intended to be covered by the safe harbor for "forward-looking statements" provided by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions; statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services; and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements are generally identified by the words "expect," "anticipates," "believes," "intends," "estimates" and similar expressions. The forward-looking information and statements in these materials are subject to various risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of Newmont, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) made by Newmont. Such risks include, but are not limited to, gold price volatility, increased production costs and variances in ore grade or recovery rates from those assumed in mining plans.