Workshop on MDG Monitoring Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Francesca Perucci United Nations Statistics Division DESA, New York

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline 1.Global monitoring and the work by the Inter- agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) 2.Compilation of international sources 3.Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies 4.Next steps

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline 1.Global monitoring and the work by the Inter- agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) 2.Compilation of international sources 3.Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies 4.Next steps

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 IAEG on MDG Indicators  The Inter-Agency and Expert Group (IAEG) on MDG Indicators (2 meetings per year)  Coordinated by UN Statistics Division/DESA  Composed of representatives from: Over 25 specialized agencies, UN Regional commissions, National Statistical Offices  Thematic sub-groups of the IAEG  Gender  Employment  Health  Poverty and hunger  Environment  Slums

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 IAEG and MDG monitoring IAEG is responsible for: ● Compiling data and undertaking analysis to monitor progress towards the MDGs at the global and regional levels; ● Reporting on status of annual progress through printed reports, progress charts, databases, etc.; ● Reviewing and preparing guidelines on methodologies and technical issues related to the indicators; ● Helping define priorities and strategies to support countries in data collection, analysis and reporting on MDGs.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline 1.Global monitoring and the work by the Inter- agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) 2.Compilation of international sources 3.Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies 4.Next steps

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Revised MDG monitoring framework: proposals by the IAEG ● To ensure comparability across countries and regions, data used for the global monitoring are compiled by international agencies within their area of expertise ● For each indicator, one or more agencies were designated to be the official data providers and to take the lead in developing appropriate methodologies for data collection and analysis. ● Data are typically drawn from official statistics provided by governments to the international agencies responsible for the indicator, through periodic data collection from ministries and NSOs (ex. ILO)…. ● or collected through surveys sponsored and carried out by international agencies (ex. MICS, DHS)

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Data provided by the international agencies

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Data compilation: from national sources to the MDG database International agency country office Agency Headquarters eg. UNICEF Line Ministry in the country National Statistical Office in the country Agency Headquarters eg. UNESCO Agency Headquarters eg. ILO MDG Indicators database 60 MDG indicators + background/additional indicators 192 Member States mdgs.un.org

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Data availability in international sources Indicator Countries with at least 1 data point Countries with at least 2 data points Number% % Population below $1 (PPP) per day Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight Total net enrolment ratio in primary education Literacy rates Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births People living with HIV, years old Condom use at last high-risk sex, women Contraceptive use Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population Proportion of the population using improved sanitation Slum population as percentage of urban Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 But where are the data from? Indicator Countries with at least 1 data point Countries with at least 2 data points Number% % Population below $1 (PPP) per day Children under 5 moderately or severely underweight Total net enrolment ratio in primary education Literacy rates Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector Children under five mortality rate per 1,000 live births Maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births People living with HIV, years old Condom use at last high-risk sex, women Contraceptive use Tuberculosis death rate per 100,000 population Proportion of the population using improved sanitation Slum population as percentage of urban Source: MDG Indicators Database, at mdgs.un.org Modelled for 68 countries Modelled for 16 countries

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Different types of data in international data sources

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Indicator 11. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3 Estimated values vs. Predicted values a)Estimations based on auxiliary variables i.Total paid employment ii.Total employment in non-agriculture iii.Employees iv.Total employment v.Economically Active Population in non- agriculture Empirical analysis shows that strong correlation exits between the indicator and the auxiliary variables.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Indicator 11. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector An example: ILO, Indicator for Goal 3 Estimated values vs. Predicted values b)Predictions based on statistical models 1.Only in order to produce regional and global aggregates 2.A separate two-level model is developed for each of the 5 regions, considering: i.between-countries variation over time, ii.within-country variation over time. 3.Based on the assumption that available data are representative of a country’s deviation from the average trend in its region, across time.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline 1.Global monitoring and the work by the Inter- agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) 2.Compilation of international sources 3.Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies 4.Next steps

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Improving international sources ● Recommendations of the friends of the Chair to improve further the compilation of the indicators used in the monitoring of the MDGs. ● In July 2006, the Economic and Social Council adopted its resolution 2006/6 on strengthening statistical capacity in countries and included a set of recommendations to improve the coverage, transparency and reporting on all indicators. ● Since then, the Inter-Agency and Expert Group has been working to implement the recommendations of the friends of the Chair and those contained in the ECOSOC resolution.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Work of the IAEG ● Improve data quality and transparency of methods ● Work with countries to identify priorities in national statistical capacity building ● Work with countries to identify best practices for coordination within national statistical systems and for reporting mechanisms to the international statistical system ● Address key methodological issues, including the use of population figures, in the computation of the indicators ● Develop improve training tools on the compilation of the indicators

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Resolving data discrepancies ● Improve consistency and transparency in reporting and presenting data and metadata for the international monitoring. –adoption of the common platform for data exchange, the Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX) –continue to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the tools available on the mdgs.un.org website ● The IAEG also recommended: –To investigate the reasons for discrepancies between national and international data, and for data gaps – To hold expert group meetings to establish strategies for dealing with data discrepancies and data gaps at the national and international levels. –To provide technical assistance to countries in the use of international definitions. –To improve the process of consultation by international agencies with countries before publishing their data.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Improve transparency in the MDG Indicators Database ● UNSD MDG database to present more detailed metadata – details on methodology used to calculate indicators – contacts for users to contact to obtain additional information Revised structure of metadata for MDG Indicators in the IAEG MDG Database CONTACT POINT in international agency DEFINITION METHODS OF COMPUTATION COMMENTS AND LIMITATIONS SOURCES OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GLOBAL AND NATIONAL FIGURES PROCESS OF OBTAINING DATA TREATMENT OF MISSING VALUES DATA AVAILABILITY REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ESTIMATES EXPECTED TIME OF RELEASE

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring Outline 1.Global monitoring and the work by the Inter- agency and Expert Group on MDGs indicators (IAEG) 2.Compilation of international sources 3.Improving international sources and resolving data gaps and discrepancies 4.Next steps

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Work of the IAEG ● The main objectives of the work of the group remain: a) improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities; and b) ensuring data quality and transparency, and reduce data gaps.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Work of the IAEG ● Improving the effectiveness of capacity building activities The group brings together international agencies, regional commissions and representatives of national statistical systems to set priorities and identify ways to improve the delivery of capacity building programmes and promote the scaling-up of resources.

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Work of the IAEG ● Ensuring data quality and transparency Priority areas:  Implement the recommendations by the friend of the Chair on MDG Indicators and those in the ECOSOC resolution  Implement the recommendations by IAEG member countries in 2006 on coordination and reporting mechanisms ( Survey to countries and agencies on coordination and reporting)  Address some key methodological issues, including the use of population figures in the computation of the indicators and regional aggregates.  Continuing to improve the content and structure of the metadata and the tools available on the website. SDMX task team to develop the data structure for MDG Indicators revision of the handbook for country reporting revision of the metadata on international series and upgrading of the database

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Work of the IAEG ● Reducing data gaps The group has developed a plan to involve more extensively regional commissions in data checking purposes (discrepancies between national and international data series) and in channelling and following-up on specific queries on data and metadata between national statistical systems and international agencies The plan also involves identifying underlying causes for data gaps and make specific recommendations for improvement

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Next steps ● Continue to develop the data structure for SDMX –International agencies –Countries ● Develop new methodologies for the assessment of progress –Global and regional level –Country level ● Continue the work to assist countries develop their system of coordination and reporting to the international statistical system –Revise questionnaire –Expand the survey –Workshops and EGMs on coordination practices

Workshop on MDG Monitoring, Kampala, Uganda, 5-8 May 2008 Reconciling international and national sources for effective global monitoring THANK YOU Visit mdgs.un.org