SHARE WP 3 Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates INGV, NORSAR Salvatore Barba Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Rome

Task 3.3 European crustal strain-rates Deliverables: D3.5. Reference strain rate models for the Euro-Mediterranean region (INGV, Month 24) Comments: - Results from national efforts already available - A robust alternative to observed slip rates (almost non-existent throughout most of central and northern Europe) Problems: - Will not be able to resolve the entire study area - Procedure is not standardized NEW! - Kinematic models will benefit areas with sufficient GPS data

Model properties Thickness of Moho and LithosphereThickness of Moho and Lithosphere Average DensitiesAverage Densities Heath flowHeath flow Calibration datasets GPS velocitiesGPS velocities Strain axesStrain axes Fault kinematicsFault kinematics Blind tests Slip ratesSlip rates Earthquake ratesEarthquake ratesOutput Slip and strain ratesSlip and strain rates Earthquake ratesEarthquake rates Data

Months Update literature search XX Talk to partners XXXX Data Collection XXX Build models XXXX Run Models XXXX ChecksXX Time plan

Composite Source (CS) Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted) Unsegmented (no rupture ends identified/predicted) No assumption on recurrence model No assumption on recurrence model

Slip rates from Finite Element Modeling: Italy Barba [INGV-DPC Report, 2007] Barba et al. [GRL, 2008]

Slip rates and strains from GPS: Germany & S. Scandinavia Kaiser et al. [2005] based on GPS data

Slip rates and strains from thin shell modeling: Alboran Sea Jimenez-Munt et al. [2001]

Slip rates from thin shell modeling: Ibero-Maghreb Negredo et al. [2002]

Crustal velocities from thin shell modeling: Aegean Sea Bird [2003]

Available crustal strain rate models Italy & Central Med. Barba et al., 2008 Ibero-Maghreb region Negredo et al., 2002 Alboran Sea Jimenez-Munt et al., 2001 Aegean Sea Bird, 2003 Germany & S. Scandinavia Kaiser et al., 2005

Based on: Seismogenic Areas and 2/3 average slip rates from DISS Time-independent probabilities (100 years) Steven Ward, UC Santa Cruz

Time-independent probabilities (100 years) Steven Ward, UC Santa Cruz Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, slip rates from FEM

Time-dependent probabilities (30 years, Polya trees) Renata Rotondi, CNR, Milan Based on: Seismogenic Areas from DISS 3.0.2, CPTI04, macroregions