® ®® ® IRP Workshop Feb 9, 2015. ®  February 9, 2015 - Workshop - Review of 2014 IRP Order - December 30 and 31 Weather Event - Demand Forecast and 65%

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
1 Intra-Day Nominations through a Posted Point of Restriction Kathryn Burch Project Manager – Standards and Regulatory Compliance Spectra Energy Transmission.
Advertisements

© 2009 The Williams Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. ______________ WECC November 12, 2012.
Natural Gas Market Conditions and Unisource Natural Gas Bills Bob Gray, Arizona Corporation Commission Staff February 24, 2004.
BG&E’s PeakRewards SM Demand Response Program Successful Approaches for Engaging Customers August 20, 2014.
© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA No Indian Point Case Results June 26, 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak ( ) Vice President,
© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Much Colder Than Normal Weather Combination Case Results December 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak.
Analysis of Demand Charge and Other Natural Gas Pricing Issues.
ERS Update Presented to: Demand Side Working Group December 5, 2014.
Shelley A. Wright Wyoming Pipeline Authority January 27, 2004 Expansion Projects Update.
ECO 436 Natural Gas. ECO 436 David Loomis Pipeline regulation 25 pipelines account for 90% of volume (1987) Most LDCs served by 3 or fewer.
OVERVIEW OF LOAD FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Northeast Utilities Economic & Load Forecasting Dept. May 1, 2008 UConn/NU Operations Management.
G 200 L 200 ISO NEW ENGLAND T H E P E O P L E B E H I N D N E W E N G L A N D ’ S P O W E R. COLD SNAP Overview of Proposed Options for Winter 2004/2005.
2011 Long-Term Load Forecast Review ERCOT Calvin Opheim June 17, 2011.
Nominations and Scheduling Questar Gas Company Annual Account Management Customer Meeting Will Schwarzenbach Director, Gas Supply.
© 2008 ICF International. All rights reserved. NYSERDA Much Colder Than Normal Weather Case Results November 2009 Contacts: Kevin R. Petak (
Progressive Energy Solutions, LLC July 28, 2010 NYMEX N. Illinois Hub Electric Prices 12-Month Forward Prices Through July 15, 2010 * NEU Electric and.
The Commonwealth of Virginia 2015 State Contracts Meeting – Compass Energy Placeholder.
Risk of Infrastructure Failure in the Natural Gas Industry Aileen Alex Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy.
Big Sandy Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis.
Farmers Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department.
Regulatory Update Questar Gas Company Annual Account Management Customer Meeting Barrie L McKay September 16, 2014.
®® QUESTAR GAS Transportation Balancing Susan Davis, Director, Account & Community Relations February 28, 2014 We develop, transport and deliver clean.
UGI Choice Program Update Shaun Hart Thursday, February 23, 2012.
WYDOT – NWS – DayWeather, Inc. June 30, 2015 Photo Credit: Jeff Garmon, 2014.
Example of Revenue Decoupling Utah Committee of Consumer Services Witness: David Dismukes Docket No T01 CCS Exhibit 1.1 Allowed Revenue per Customer.
NGEIR Technical Conference Presentation May 16, 2006.
DSM Incentive Returns Proposal – Benefit/Cost Ratio Approach Utah Committee of Consumer Services Witness: David Dismukes Docket No T01 Supplemental.
Copyright 2010 – Johnson Controls, Inc. 1 A Day in the Life of a Smart Campus Clay Nesler VP, Global Energy & Sustainability Johnson Controls
Page 1 Schedule Experimental Energy Reduction (EER) updated 2005 Note: This program is available to qualified participants within the EntergyArkansas,
® July 30 th, 2014 Utah PSC Technical Conference.
Grayson Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department.
Washington’s Water Use Efficiency Rule May Require Increased Coordination for Many Utilities Dan Sander, P.E. Senior Engineer.
WINTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN ALLIANT GAS. Alliant Gas is the propane gas company that operates as a regulated utility in the towns of Payson and.
Electric/Gas Communications Workshop: Communications with Natural Gas Sector George Snyder Director, Capacity Services, Scheduling & Volume Management.
Questar Gas Company Customer Meeting Sept. 15, 2014 Stonebridge Country Club West Valley City, Utah Making lives better with natural gas.
Example of Revenue Decoupling Utah Committee of Consumer Services Witness: David Dismukes Docket No T01 Exhibit CCS-2.1 Allowed Revenue per Customer.
Blue Grass Energy Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department.
Licking Valley Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by : East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis.
TRANSMISSION CONSTRAINTS KENNETH A. DONOHOO, P.E. Manager of System Planning, Technical Operations
® February 25, ®  February 25 th - IRP Schedule - Review of IRP Order - December 5 th Weather Event - Wexpro II - Master Planning of System.
Craig Williams Market Interface Manager August 21, 2014 ISAS, Portland, OR.
November 22, 2015 Weather Update National Weather Service Spokane.
Developing Load Reduction Estimates Caused by Interrupting and/or Curtailing Large Customers By Carl L. Raish 2000 AEIC Load Research Conference.
California Gas System Overview
CEC Workshop January 24, 2003 January 24, 2003 Chris Price Market Development Wild Goose Storage Inc.
The Commonwealth of Virginia 2016 State Contracts Meeting – Compass Energy Placeholder.
Overview of the Contract Carriage Gas Markets in Eastern Australia James Mellsop Director 4 December 2012 Presentation to PEA.
Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) UPDATE F EBRUARY 8, 2011.
©2003 PJM 1 Presentation to: Maryland Public Service Commission May 16, 2003.
1 Gas Supply Preparations September 22, 2004 Columbia Gas of Maryland, Inc. Gas Supply Preparations September 22, 2004 Scott Phelps Director of Gas Procurement.
DN Interruption Reform Transmission Workstream Mark Freeman 5 th April 2007.
California Senate Energy, Utilities and Communications Committee Oversight Hearing May 10, 2016 Southern California Edison Colin Cushnie Vice President,
Nominations PEA Meeting October Why ask for Nominations? In a common carriage system gas flows must be approved in advance to keep them within pipeline.
What is the Outlook? Aggregation of IRPs and other planning docs.
Enterprise Resource Planning, 1st Edition by Mary Sumner
Gas Hedging – Do Low Natural Gas Prices Support Scaling Back Hedging Programs at Local Distribution Companies? Kara Brighton, Commissioner Wyoming Public.
Fuel Cost Components in the Fuel Adder
Customer Select Supply/Storage
Natural Gas –generation intersection
Fuel Cost Components in the Fuel Adder
Fuel Cost Components in the Fuel Adder
Atmos Energy Corporation
Customer Select Supply/Storage
Chapter 3 Supply Chain Drivers and Obstacles
Enterprise Resource Planning, 1st Edition by Mary Sumner
Behavior Modification Report with Peak Reduction Component
System Operational Update and Review December 4, 2018
Commissioner Anne C. George
Manager, Supply Resource Planning
Manager, Resource Planning
Presentation transcript:

® ®® ® IRP Workshop Feb 9, 2015

®  February 9, Workshop - Review of 2014 IRP Order - December 30 and 31 Weather Event - Demand Forecast and 65% Calculation - Calculating COS Gas Prices  March 25, Workshop - Wexpro Drilling and Compression Plans - Review of Upstream Gathering and Transportation Contracts 2

®  May 4, 2015 – Workshop - Heating Season Review - Management of COS Gas for 2014 IRP year - Storage Update - Energy Efficiency Impact on Peak Day - Review of RFP  June 24, 2015 – Technical Conference 3

®  Energy Efficiency Impact on Peak Day  TIMP/DIMP Inspection and Expenses  Demand Forecast and 65% Calculation  Shut-in and Exhibit Reporting  Calculation of COS Gas Price 4

® ®® ® December 30 and 31 Weather Event

® 6

® 7

®  Due to Christmas, gas supply purchases and nominations were made on Dec 24 th for gas days  On Dec 26 th Questar Pipeline warned that nominations were expected to exceed pipeline capacity  On Dec 26 th Questar Gas restricted customers to a 5% +/- tolerance effective Dec 28 th until further notice (“OFO”)  Temperatures were near normal for this entire period with snow on Dec 25 th 8

®  Temperatures dropped beginning on Monday Dec 29 th  Weather forecasts continued to predict extreme cold temperatures and high winds for the next few days  The increase in demand for gas day 29 was met with increased withdrawals from Clay Basin and the aquifers  The Cycle 2 scheduled quantity report showed reductions for numerous transportation customers - This report now shows reductions by customer due to changes Questar Pipeline made to the nominations process - These reductions occurred because the agent was utilizing interruptible capacity on Questar Pipeline which had a constraint through the Coalville scheduling point - The agent was able to resolve the situation and no customers were contacted 9

®  Temperatures were extremely cold throughout the Questar Gas service territory - Demand exceeded the morning estimates due to colder temperatures and high winds - Demand correlated well with the model used to forecast peak-day demand  Questar Gas used Clay Basin and aquifer storage along with Intraday purchases to manage the increased demand on the system  The Cycle 1 scheduled quantity report showed significant reductions to supply for transportation customers represented by four agents ▪The reductions ranged from near 50% to 80% for agents based on nominations 10

®  Questar Gas notified agents with reductions to fix their nominations for Cycle 2 or customers would be instructed to reduce usage starting at 8:00 am December 31, Notifications were made through s, instant messages and phone calls  The Cycle 2 scheduled quantity report indicated that reductions remained unresolved for two agent’s customers for gas day 31 - At 9 pm, customers of these two agents were instructed to restrict their usage to match their reduced nomination for December 31 st, starting at 8:00 am - One of these agents had their reductions resolved by morning and their customers were notified their supply was available - The other agent did not have their reductions resolved until later the next day, and then those customers were notified their supply was available 11

®  Extreme cold weather continued throughout the service territory and producing regions - Cold temperatures were now impacting multiple production facilities  By 7:00 am, based on system concerns expressed by QGC Gas Control, the decision was made to call an interruption of all interruptible customers along the Wasatch Front and Wasatch Back - Customers were notified using the “rapid notify” system prior to 9:00 am - Agents were notified on an individual basis that interruptible customers were being asked to reduce usage to match their firm amount - Nominating parties were then notified that the restriction for packing the Questar Gas system had been lifted  By afternoon, system concerns were subsiding and the decision was made to allow interruptible customers to resume normal usage at 8:00 am January 1, Customers were notified using the “rapid notify” system at 5:00 pm 12

® 13 Gas Day Total System (Dth) Transport (Dth) Total Sales (Dth)Mean ( º F) 12/30/20141,280,215276,3461,003, /31/20141,148,547217,969930,57811  December 30, Highest daily total system demand ▪Previous high was 1,225,730 Dth on 1/14/ Highest daily total Sales demand ▪Previous high was 997,135 Dth on 2/1/2011  System Interruption - Many customers complied with the interruption - Over 100 customers exceeded their firm amount and will be billed accordingly

® 14

®  Paragraph12 (a) “The Company and Wexpro will manage the combined cost- of-service production from Wexpro I properties and Wexpro II Trail Unit Acquisition Properties to 65% of Questar Gas’ annual forecasted demand identified in the Company’s Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).” - Settlement Stipulation Docket No

®  Paragraph12 (b) “The IRP plan year starting with the June 2015 through May 2016 IRP will be used to determine the initial annual forecasted demand.” - Settlement Stipulation Docket No

® 17 IRP Forecast Demand

® 18 Firm Sales Firm Sales Statistical Time Series Statistical Time Series Dynamic Regression Dynamic Regression End-use Modeling End-use Modeling

® 19

® 20

® 21

® 22

® 23

® 24

® 25

® 26

® 27

® 28

® 29

® 30

® 31 Distributes housing by size and shell quality (year built, insulation grade) Distributes housing by size and shell quality (year built, insulation grade) Distributes end-use segments by appliance efficiency Distributes end-use segments by appliance efficiency

® 32 IRP Forecast Demand IRP forecast demand is shown in section 3 and exhibits 3.10 and 3.11 of the IRP

® 33

® 34

® 35 Actual Company Production IRP Forecast Demand IRP Demand is shown in exhibits 3.10 and 3.11 of the IRP

® REDACTED

® 37 Processing “Into Pipe”City Gate Well Head IRP Year Dth = 65% Actual Well-head Production Volumes Transportation