1 Overview Community Health Modeling Working Group Meeting Planning and Technical Support Division August 27, 2003 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency A_Overview_ ppt

2 Overview of the Day Morning:Morning: –Overview of Current Efforts –Wilmington Protocol –Statewide Protocol  Afternoon:Afternoon: –December 2003 Board Item –Open discussion Your feedback Your feedback Peer Review Peer Review

3 Overview of Current Efforts

4 Recap ARB Policy Specific Actions Regional maps showing estimated cancer health risksRegional maps showing estimated cancer health risks –ASPEN for now Develop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level.Develop tools for assessments of cumulative emissions, exposure, and health risk on a neighborhood scale and provide maps showing the results at the neighborhood level. –Regional maps showing air pollution emission sources (I.e, CHAPIS) –New Statewide Risk Modeling and Maps

5Plan Conduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative sourcesConduct refined, neighborhood-scale air quality modeling studies of toxic emissions for cumulative sources –Barrio Logan –Wilmington Extend neighborhood-scale experience to approach that is applicable to any location in the StateExtend neighborhood-scale experience to approach that is applicable to any location in the State –Statewide Protocol

6 Micro-scale Neighborhood-Scale(Wilmington)

7Statewide

8 Modeling Approach and Tools Emissions and Meteorology Microscale Modeling Regional Modeling Integrated Results Risk Assessment Mapping and Visualization Updated Modeling Protocol Modeling Framework Statewide Modeling Protocol Wilmington Modeling Protocol Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol HARP CHAPIS Updates & Improvements

9 External Review Working Group EvaluationsWorking Group Evaluations Independent ScientificIndependent Scientific Peer Review Panel Peer Review Panel –Mr. John, Irwin, US-EPA –Dr. Michael J. Kleeman, UC Davis –Dr. Christian Seigneur, Atms. and Env. Research, Inc. –Dr. Steve Hanna, George Mason University Statewide Modeling Protocol Wilmington Modeling Protocol Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol

10 Challenges Objective is NewObjective is New Prior protocols based on regulatory applicationsPrior protocols based on regulatory applications Regional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP) Regional Ozone Modeling (e.g. SIP) Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc) Local Scale Single Sources (e.g. NSR, AB2588, etc) No established metrics for model performance for annual toxicsNo established metrics for model performance for annual toxics New Protocols Currently Under DevelopmentNew Protocols Currently Under Development Cumulative Source Modeling Analyses Cumulative Source Modeling Analyses Workshops & Peer ReviewWorkshops & Peer Review

11 Challenges (Continued) EmissionsEmissions –Stack Characterization and Activity Data for key sources –Higher Resolution for Areawide Sources (e.g. Offroad Diesel) –Consistency of Microscale and Regional Inventories MeteorologyMeteorology –Microscale Input Availability and Representativeness –Consistency of Microscale and Regional Met (e.g. years) –Regional Met Model Run Times (~months) ModelingModeling –Performance Metric ‘Rigor’ not yet established –Regional and Microscale Model Choices –Mobile Source Input Data: Spatial and Temporal Resolution –Regional AQ Model Run Times (~months at 4km x 4km) –Interest in Finer Grid Resolutions IntegrationIntegration –Double Counting of Emission Sources 

12Status Barrio Logan (Pilot Study #1)Barrio Logan (Pilot Study #1) –Peer Reviewed Protocol (Complete) –Field Study (Complete) –Modeling (Nearing Completion)  Wilmington (Pilot Study #2)Wilmington (Pilot Study #2) –Protocol In Progress –Field Study In Progress StatewideStatewide –Protocol Development In Progress

13 Schedule October 2003October 2003 –CHAPIS November 2003November 2003 –Final Barrio Logan Report –Final Statewide Protocol –Final Wilmington Protocol December 2003December 2003 –Board Hearing Regional Modeling Results:Regional Modeling Results: –Southern California – 1 st Quarter 2004 –Northern California – 3 rd Quarter 2004 Microscale Modeling ResultsMicroscale Modeling Results –Southern California – 1 st Half 2004

14Next…. Neighborhood-Scale ProtocolNeighborhood-Scale Protocol –Wilmington Statewide Modeling ProtocolStatewide Modeling Protocol –Regional Modeling –Microscale Modeling –Integration