1. 1 Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling Community Health Neighborhood Assessment Program Working Draft Do Not Cite or Quote Tony Servin, P.E. October 10, 2001 Air Resources Board California Environmental Protection Agency

2. 2 Overview Local Emissions Only –Cars & Trucks CALINE –Facilities ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF Primary Emissions –no chemical reaction –no deposition Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

3. 3 Overview (cont.) Today’s results are predicted with –ISCST3 –CALINE Inhalation Risk is based on predicted concentrations from local emissions Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

4. 4 General Location Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Lindbergh Field North Island Shipping Lane Logan Memorial

5. 5 Closer Look Barrio Logan / Logan Heights Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Rail Line Shipping Lane Shipping Docks –B Street –10th Street Logan Memorial

6. 6 Aerial View of Barrio Logan Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Local Sources Facilities Point and Volume Sources Rail Line Volume Sources Shipping Lane Volume Sources Logan Memorial

7. 7 Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Lindbergh Field –Approach –Climb Out North Island –Approach –Climb Out Shipping Lane Logan Memorial Total 660 Point and Volume Sources Satellite View of San Diego

8. 8 Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Logan Memorial Wind Rose Nov 1, 1999 to Oct 31, 2000 Sea Breeze (predominately daytime) Land Breeze (predominately nighttime)

9. 9 Results - Concentration Examples of Concentration Plots –Perchloroethylene –Manganese ISCST3 results underpredict observed annual average concentration at Logan Memorial Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

10. 10 Perc local emissions Ann. Avg. Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

11. 11 Mn local emissions Ann. Avg. Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

12. 12 Motor Vehicle Links Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote Input to CALINE 991 Links from DTIM

13. 13 Risk Form local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

14. 14 Risk Benz local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

15. 15 Risk Cr(VI) local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

16. 16 Comparisons to Facility HRA Two facilities evaluated without diesel PM –Southwest Marine –NASSCO Predictions similar, not identical Differences likely due to: –Met. Data (Lindbergh/Logan Memorial) –Inventory (variations) –Model options (rural/urban, initial conditions) Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

17. 17 Risk Southwest Marine (w/o DPM) Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

18. 18 Risk NASSCO (w/o DPM) Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

19. 19 Risk - Facilities (w/o DPM) local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

20. 20 Risk DPM local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

21. 21 Risk Summary local emissions Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

22. 22 Risk at Logan Memorial Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

23. 23 Further Analysis Simulations with –AERMOD –CALPUFF Evaluation of the tracer studies and model performance Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote

24. 24 Conclusions Diesel PM is the major contributor to inhalation Risk Facility risk similar to HRA risk ISC/CALINE generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote