Outlook for 2007 As Seen Through the Eyes of the Buyers Tom Stundza Executive Editor Purchasing Magazine Steel Manufacturers Association Annual Board of.

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for 2007 As Seen Through the Eyes of the Buyers Tom Stundza Executive Editor Purchasing Magazine Steel Manufacturers Association Annual Board of Directors Meeting Pointe Hilton Tapatio Cliffs Phoenix, Arizona February 16, 2007

2007, the year of the pig bad ‘feng shui’ for steel It’s a year of fire & water – two elements that don’t mix

Gross domestic product (annual, % change from year before*) * Chained 2000 dollars 2007: Watch for slow growth

Gross domestic product (quarterly, annualized rate, $, trillions*) * Chained 2000 dollars Trending up, gradually

Purchasing managers’ index (monthly, diffusion index) Purchasing managers’ index (monthly, diffusion index) Less than 50 = falling; greater than 50 = rising Business Conditions 61.1

Buying plans index (monthly, diffusion index) Buying plans index (monthly, diffusion index) Less than 50 = falling; greater than 50 = rising 90-day purchasing plans 69.4

Steel buying plans index (monthly, diffusion index) Steel buying plans index (monthly, diffusion index) Less than 50 = falling; greater than 50 = rising 30-day purchasing plans 62.5

Steel buying plans (monthly, % expanding buys) Steel buying plans (monthly, % expanding buys) 30-day purchasing plans 40%

Purchasing price index (monthly, 100 = January 1992) 177.3

Steel prices-paid index (monthly, diffusion index) Steel prices-paid index (monthly, diffusion index) Less than 50 = lower; greater than 50 = higher 59.5

Steel price indexes (monthly, 100 = January 1992) carbon stainless

Forecasts of key indicators (U.S., % change) ‘ 04‘05’06’07 old ’07 new ‘ 04‘05’06’07 old ’07 new Gross domestic product GDP price index Consumer price index Consumer spending Capital spending Industrial production Residential starts4.94.6(13.0)(16.4)(15.0) Motor vehicle sales1.80.0(13.0)(2.4)(2.4) Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Energy prices-paid index (monthly, diffusion index) Energy prices-paid index (monthly, diffusion index) Less than 50 = lower; greater than 50 = higher 69.7

Industrial production index (monthly, seasonally adjusted, 100 = 2002) 2006: Still strong after all these months

Capacity use, manufacturing (monthly, seasonally adjusted, % capacity) 2006: Robust production year 80.4

Durable goods output (monthly, seasonally adjusted, $ billions) 2006: Rebound is evident 212

Motor vehicle sales (annual, millions of cars, trucks, SUVs) : Why assembly is sliding 16.3

Appliance shipments (annual, millions of cars, trucks, SUVs) 2007: Why steel demand will slip 76

Office furniture shipments (annual, $ billions) 2007: A possible sales growth arena 11.8

Machinery shipments (annual, $ billions) 2007: A possible sales growth arena 338

monthly, diffusion) Housing market index (monthly, diffusion) 35 Less than 50 = falling; greater than 50 = rising

Purchasing managers’ indexes (monthly, diffusion index) Stock-Building Plans Less than 50 = falling; greater than 50 = rising 29.5

Steel marketplace update (annual, million net tons, rounded) ‘03‘04‘05‘06 Mills to U.S. buyers Net imports Inventory change2(2) 3(4) Apparent supply Calculated use* * Supply x metalworking activity calculated by Federal Reserve Board

Service center steel inventories (monthly, U.S., million tons) 16.5

U.S. steel consumption (annual, million net tons) 2006: strongest year this decade 100

Steel mill product imports (annual, million net tons) 2007: huge slippage unlikely 32

Questions? Questions? Tom Stundza Executive Editor, Purchasing magazine, Purchasing. COM and Purchasingdata.com Author, Steel Flash Report, Energy Flash Report, Chemicals Flash Report Author & Narrator, MetalsWatch! audiotapes 225 Wyman Street Waltham, MA 02451–1209 Phone: Fax: Mobile: Thank you for your attention