Saudi Arabia Business Optimism Index – Q Presented by Dun & Bradstreet South Asia Middle East Ltd. (D&B) National Commercial Bank (NCB)

The D&B Business Optimism Index is recognized world over as an indicator which ascertains the pulse of the business community Provides insight into the short-term outlook of the business units on sales, profit growth, investment etc Provides analysis of major trends, outlook and issues concerning the business units Business Optimism Index

Survey Sample of business units representing Saudi Arabia’s economy was selected 500 business owners and senior executives across different industry sectors were surveyed Survey conducted during March 2010 for the 2 nd quarter of 2010 Respondents are asked questions about their expectations on relevant business parameters Survey also captures respondent feedback on current business conditions

Composite Business Index The Composite Business Index is calculated separately for the hydrocarbon and non hydrocarbon sector For the non hydrocarbon sector, the Composite Index captures the weighted aggregate behavior of five individual indices For the hydrocarbon sector, the Index takes into account the weighted aggregate behavior of three individual indices

World Economic Outlook Real GDP GrowthGlobal composite manufacturing & services PMI Source: JP Morgan and markit economics Global economy expected to grow 4.2% in 2010, emerging economies to expand 6.0% US economy registered 5.6% growth in Q4 2009, fastest since third quarter of 2003 Global composite PMI indicates continued expansion of manufacturing and services industry activity world over; April reading at 34-month high Source: IMF

Economy of Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia’s growth for 2010 is projected at 3.7%; led by government spending and higher oil production The Saudi government has announced its biggest ever budget for year 2010, with planned expenditure of SAR 540 bn, up 13.7% from 2009 Source: Ministry of Planning Sector-wise GDP growthFiscal & Trade balance

Composite Business Optimism Indices Non hydrocarbon sector outlook stabilizes at last quarter’s level Weak selling price outlook drags the hydrocarbon sector optimism lower Hydrocarbon sectorNon-hydrocarbon sector

Business Optimism Indices Trends : Non Hydrocarbon Sector

Manufacturing Sector The global manufacturing sector continued to expand in April for the tenth consecutive month, indicating sustained recovery in the sector Saudi manufacturing sector optimism mostly stable as compared to the previous quarter Raw material costs continues to be a leading cause of concern for the sector Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index Source: JP Morgan and markit economics GDP12.1%

Construction Sector Global construction sector currently driven by infrastructure spending as commercial property undergoes correction Saudi’s construction sector optimism mixed as optimism for sales volume stays intact (q-o-q) but that for new order sees a slight dip Selling prices expected to rise amid high commodity prices in the international markets 6.9% GDP

Trade & hospitality Sector Global trade sector showing early signs of demand revival Saudi’s trade & hospitality sector registers a drop in demand outlook for Q2 as sales volume and new orders optimism declines substantially 8.3% GDP

Transport & Communications Sector World trade volumes are expected to grow at 9.5% in 2010, after suffering a sharp drop of 12.2% during 2009 Saudi transport & communications sector optimism broadly stable at last quarter’s level 6.6% GDP

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services Sector The global service sector is exhibiting renewed strength. At 56.8 in April, the reading is at a 33-month high Saudi service sector also showing similar trend with continuous improvement in demand outlook and consequently profitability expectations GDP 12.5% Global Services Purchasing Managers’ Index Source: JP Morgan and markit economics

Business Optimism Indices Trends : Hydrocarbon Sector Oil prices have stayed consistently above USD 70 per barrel mark for the last seven consecutive months A majority, 72% of the respondents expect prices to remain unchanged in Q2 GDP 26.9% OPEC Monthly Price Basket

Manufacturing sector continues to face pressure due to rising cost of raw materials 43% of the respondents in the non hydrocarbon sector are expecting borrowing conditions to improve in the second quarter Nearly half of the non-hydrocarbon firms plan to invest in business expansion Project delays cited as the key factor that might impact business units in the hydrocarbon sector Other Key Highlights

Conclusion Business outlook in Saudi Arabia broadly stable for the non hydrocarbon sector The BOI for selling price parameter continues to rise for the fourth consecutive quarter Despite turbulence witnessed in the international financial markets during the last quarter, optimism level in finance & business services sector has improved Hydrocarbon sector optimism suffers due to weak selling price outlook

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