PACS 4500 Senior Seminar in Peace and Conflict Studies Section 001 Guy Burgess

Incarceration Rates

Incarceration Rates y%20and%20the%20Rise%20in%20US%20Imprisonment.pdf

Predictability?

Failed States

Internal Conflict

Recurring Conflict

Terrorism

Per Capita GDP / Civil War

D2L

Definition of Intractable Conflict?

Definition by Example  International: Israel/Palestine, Tibet, Kashmir,  Public Policy: Taxes, climate change, homosexual marriage, abortion, affirmative-action, unionization  Interpersonal: Innumerable conflicts between individuals in family, workplace, and community settings

Intractability Continuum Tractable Intractable Individual conflicts all at various points along a continuum from tractable to intractable

Coleman’s Definition: The Five Percent

SPIDR Best Practices

No Zone of Possible Agreement (ZOPA) Party A Winning Outcomes Party B Winning Outcomes Party A Winning Outcomes ZOPA Party B Winning Outcomes Intractable Tractable

Simplified to “Us vs. Them” “Intractability happens,” according to Coleman, “when the many different components of a conflict collapse together into one mass, into one very simple “us versus them” story that effectively resist change.”

Polarization Alliance Formation, Coalition Building Cold War Alliances

Attractors  Like a black hole, everything nearby is pulled into them, and escape is very difficult, if not impossible.

Conflicts and Disputes  Conflicts – underlying, long-running, tensions between the parties based on differing interests with respect to distributional issues, moral questions, status, and identity.  Disputes – episodes within the context of the larger conflict that may be resolved by agreement or various types of legal, political, military or other power contests.

Conflicts and Disputes  The underlying conflict is intractable and cannot be resolved in the near (or even long) term.  Dispute episodes within the context of that conflict are, however, routinely resolved by power contests (or, sometimes, agreement).  The cumulative effect of these resolved disputes determines the “outcome” of the larger conflict for the moment.  The underlying conflict is only “resolved” when there is no significant challenge to the prevailing situation (outcome) for an extended.

The Football Analogy Disputes are the plays and conflict is the game with special rules: 1) the game never ends, and 2) the goal is to keep the ball at your end of the field.

Abortion Dispute History A partial list of major abortion-related disputes in the United States and associated shift in aggregate social policies. Pro-ChoicePro-Life Abortion prohibition laws Abortion legalization efforts (state-level) Roe v. Wade GOP decision to focus on the abortion issue Pro-Choice interest group organization Pro-Life interest organization Pro-Life Supreme Court appointments Pro-Choice Supreme Court appointments Threats abortion providers State-level abortion restriction legislation Many other disputes in various arenas

Climate Change Dispute History Kyoto Protocol – 1997 IPCC Gore Nobel Prize – 2007 Copenhagen Conference – 2009 US Stimulus/Alternative Energy – 2009 Climategate Controversy – US CAFE Negotiations – 2011 CAFE Agreement – Summer 2011 ? Keystone XL Pipeline Permits – 2013 ? More Favorable to Environmental Interests More Favorable to Pro-Fossil Interests

Overlay / Core Overlay Core

Overlay Problems Escalation Relationship Communication Collaboration Core

Core Issues Distributional Moral Status Identity Overlays

Resolution of Intractable Conflict?

Justpeace  War stops because the underlying issues of injustice have been resolved and human needs have been met  Critiques: Gary Stahl effect Revolutions of rising expectations Boundless greed problem

Stable Peace Stable peace is a situation in which the possibility of war is so remote that it does not enter into anyone's calculations Stable war Unstable war Unstable stable peace Stable peace

Inverted Clausewitz "War is the continuation of diplomacy (peaceful approaches to conflict) by other means." "Peace is the continuation of war (violent approaches to conflict) by other means."

The Demise of Dueling

Regions of Stable Peace

The Fitzduff Debate (Which Side Do You Favor?) Peace Movement Fight the System Pacifism – Violence never acceptable Justpeace – “If you want Peace fight for Justice” Progressive Liberal Base Favors the Department of Peace Advocates for the Culture of Peace Peace Work Work Within The System (Including The Military) Violence Sometimes Necessary Justice Not A Precondition For Peace – Inverted Clauswitz Bi-partisan Favors The United States Institute Of Peace Cultivates Peaceful Aspects Of All Cultures

Conflict: The Engine of Social Learning Basic Conflict Interaction Party A: “Plaintiff” “Things Would Be Better If You’d Change” Party B: “Defendant” “I Do Not Want to Change” Conflict processes are the mechanisms through which society decides whether or not Party B will be compelled to change. Goal Constructive Confrontations NOT Suppression of Conflict Criteria for Assessing Constructiveness Wise Decisions Equity Timeliness Efficiency (Low Transaction Costs) Nonviolent Process Relationship Preservation Stress Reduction

Readings Reflections?  How are "intractable conflicts" different from other conflicts?  Why does this distinction matter? (Or doesn't it?) Is the concept a useful one-- or not?  What are the specifications of an intractable conflict "solution?"

Post-It Notes / Arrows X leads to an increase in Y X leads to a decrease in Y

Addressing the Inequality Problem Problems at the Top – Assortative Mating – The Super Star Effect – Money Addiction/Boundless Greed – Others? Problems the Bottom – Single Parenting – Criminal Behavior – Unemployment History – Low Educational Expectations – Scarcity-Afflicted Thinking – Others? Systemic Problems – Automation – Kludgeocracy – Reserve Army of the Unemployed – Zero-Some Mentality – Matthew’s Law – Stress Limits on Compassion – Under-Performing Schools – Lance Armstrong Effect – Prison Industrial Complex – Others

What positive steps did you identify for dealing with the inequality problem?

Draft a mission statement for an organization focused on a comprehensive effort to address the inequality problem?

Draft a mission statement for an organization focused on a comprehensive effort to address the intractability problem?