ILLINOIS TOOL WORKS INC. APRIL 23, 2013 Kaushik Andra, Dan Ballantine, & Keaton J. Cervantes
Agenda Introduction Macroeconomic Outlook Industry Overview Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Recommendation
Illinois Tool Works Inc. Founded in 1912, headquartered in Glenview, Illinois Approximately 60,000 employees Manufacturer of industrial products and equipment across 40 different operating segments with operations in 58 countries Decentralized management structure: contains 8 separate business segments that operate independently Currently listed on RCMP Watch List Last reviewed in April 2005 Source: Illinois Tool Works K
Macroeconomic Outlook Industry trend to pursue “Southern Strategy” in the United States Moving operations to right-to-work states United States becoming more competitive globally Decrease in energy and input costs Foreign worker compensation rising, while US wages are stagnant Source: The Wall Street Journal
Macroeconomic Outlook Improving industrial output in the United States Industrial production nearing levels Source: The Wall Street Journal
Macroeconomic Outlook After strong increase, shipments abroad are decreasing Source: The Wall Street Journal
Global Industrial Machinery Overview Engine, Turbine, and Related is the largest segment of the global industrial machinery, accounting for 36.5% of total revenue Asia-Pacific accounts for 36.8% of total revenue Mitsubishi Heavy is largest player in the industry, generating 6.5% of market value Source: MarketLine
Industry Projection Source: MarketLine
Industry Forces Analysis Bargaining Power of Buyers: Moderate Low switching costs, but typically buyers opting for machinery best suited to their needs Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Low Commodity inputs with a large number of industry suppliers Threat of New Entrants: Low Highly capital intensive industry Requires high amounts of specific knowledge Threat of Substitutes: Moderate Machines expected to work in heavy duty environment Degree of Rivalry: High 4 largest players only own 14% of total market share Source: MarketLine
Company Overview Source: Illinois Tool Works 2012 Annual Report
Company Overview Source: Illinois Tool Works K
Current Financial Position Source: Illinois Tool Works 2012 Annual Report
Financial Highlights Source: Illinois Tool Works K
Business Risks Exchange Rates Ballooning pension costs Low employee morale Divestiture Failures Economic downturn globally Failure to realize 80/20
SWOT Analysis Globally diversified revenue base Strong dividend history Multiple end markets and product groups Strengths High number of operating segments and product lines Unproven track record of management team Very uncertain future due to current strategy Weaknesses Divest undesirable business segments to improve margins Efficient operations once 80/20 strategy is realized Opportunities Sensitive to a variety of macroeconomic factors Exposure to currency risk High industry competition Threats
Strategy 80/20 plan Focus on the 20% of business that is responsible for 80% of revenue Large divestiture planned ahead Reduce business from 800 to 120 business units Restructure or end industrial packaging segment Currently looking at alternatives Using more discipline when deploying capital in the future Source: Illinois Tool Works Q Earnings Presentation, Illinois Tool Works Barclays Investor Conference
Management Outlook Anticipated increase of revenues in 2013 by 3-5% Anticipated 2013 operating margin of % Focus on executing enterprise strategy of simplifying the business Improve operating margins to 20% by 2017 Increase future dividends and share buybacks Looking to divest up to 25% of its remaining revenue base Source: Illinois Tool Works Q Earnings Presentation
Recent News Former CEO David Speer passed away in 2012 New CEO named in November 2012 Sold 51% stake in Decorative Surfaces business unit in August 2012 Announced new strategy in August 2012 Q4 2012: Revenues down 2.3% from Q4 2011, operating income down 5.9% Source: Illinois Tool Works 2012 Annual Report, Q Earnings Presentation
Current Stock Information MetricValue Current Stock Price $60.50 Trailing P/E9.98 Forward P/E14.21 Dividend Yield 2.51% Market Cap ($ millions) $27,312 Source: Capital IQ, Yahoo Finance
Financial Analysis
Comparable Companies Source: Capital IQ CompanyRevenues ($ millions) Market Cap ($ millions) Operating Margin Cummins Inc.$17,334$19, % Danaher Corp.$18,389$43, % Honeywell International Inc.$37,686$61, % Ingersoll-Rand Plc$14,035$18, % Lincoln Electric Holdings Inc.$2,853$3, % Parker-Hannifin Corporation$13,086$14, % Stanley Black & Decker$10,191$15, % Illinois Tool Works Inc.$17,924$29, %
Stock Performance Source: Yahoo Finance
Comparable Company Analysis Source: Capital IQ
Comparable Company Analysis Source: Capital IQ
Discount Rate Source: Yahoo Finance
DCF Analysis
Decision Drivers Strengths: Improved operating margins Geographically diversified revenue base GICS diversification Strong dividend history Concerns: Management’s ability to execute restructuring plan Stagnating sales growth in key segments Exposure to a number of global macro factors
Recommendation Valuation Summary Current Stock Price: $60.78 per share Comparable Companies Valuation: $57.76 per share DCF Valuation: $46.33 per share Recommendation: WATCH LIST Place on RCMP Watch List Consider reviewing again in months after divestiture process is more complete