International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development Kathmandu, Nepal Mandira Singh Shrestha New strategy of ICIMOD and water related activities CORDEX South Asia science workshop Kathmandu, Nepal th August 2013

Presentation outline  Water security in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region and climate change impacts  About ICIMOD  Introduction  New strategy  Regional Programmes and Thematic Areas  River basin programme at ICIMOD  Challenges, goals and objectives  Examples: Flood disasters in the HKH region (HKH HYCOS), Koshi basin, HICAP, Satellite rainfall estimate application  Summary

Mountains matter  Mountain ecosystems – a global resource Vital for water, food, energy, forests, biodiversity  Mountains are under pressure  Mountain people offer solutions

Largest body of ice outside the Polar caps, the “Third Pole” Himalayan glaciers are sources of freshwater reserves which provide headwaters for major river systems in Asia Sustenance to about 1.3 billion people Himalayan region: Source of 10 major river systems –the “water tower” of Asia 4

Water security in HKH region There is high spatial and temporal variability in precipitation and development of water resources  Pakistan: lowest per capita water availability in Asia  India: World’s largest consumer of ground water  Bangladesh: Geographically, the south asian state most vulnerable to water insecurity  Bhutan and Nepal: water rich but with spatial variation  Afghanistan: Arid, mountainous, poor water infrastructure

High natural vulnerability in mountains increased by:  Climate change and glacial retreat  Unplanned, inappropriate or inadequate infrastructure development  Unsustainable natural resource exploitation  Widespread poverty, marginalisation & conflict

Climate change impacts in the mountains  Rate of warming is higher in the mountains than in the plains (Shrestha et al., 1999) and five times faster than warming globally (Lau et al., 2006)  Glaciers and snow melt accelerated  Potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems  “Too much and too little”  Increased risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) due to increased volume of water in glacial lakes  Changing water availability downstream particularly during the lean flow season  Hydropower sector  Water supply and irrigation  Increased occurrence of floods and droughts

Role of snow and ice UNEP, 2007

How much has the glaciers retreated? The glacier outlines derived from different time series data (1980s, 1990s, 2000s and 2010)  Langtang (-25%)  Imja (-27%)  Jhelum (-21.4%)  Narayani (-26.2%)  Manas (-21%) Rate of change varies with each decade

Disasters in the Himalayas ( ) Source: "EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

One third of the disaster are floods Pakistan floods: 2000 killed, 20 million affected Uttarakhand disaster: >5000 killed, millions affected Most floods are transboundary which requires cooperation across borders

Intergovernmental, knowledge, learning and enabling centre

Vision, Mission, and Governance Vision Men, women, and children of the Hindu Kush Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a healthy mountain environment. Governance  Board of Governors (Government representatives and independent members)  Programme Advisory Committee  ICIMOD Support Group  Finance Committee Mission To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge and regional cooperation.

How does ICIMOD work?  Bridge science with policies and practice and provides a regional platform where policy makers, experts, planners, and practitioners can exchange ideas and perspectives towards the achievement of sustainable mountain development  Facilitates knowledge exchange across the region  Tailor international knowledge to the region’s needs  Brings regional issues to the global stage  Partnership with regional and international agencies.

ICIMOD’s strategic framework ( ) Responding to the challenges of global change: enhancing resilience and supporting adaptation of mountain communities.

ICIMOD’s regional programme focus Cryosphere – River basins:  Cryosphere Monitoring, field observation, customizing methodologies, regional cooperation. (Macro) Watersheds – Adaptation:  Hazards, resources, ecosystem services, adaptive research, training, networking. (Meso) Livelihood – Resilience:  Medicinal herbs, eco-tourism, livelihood options: Networking NGOs. (Micro)

River basin management programme  Challenges: To manage the problem of too much water in the wet season and too little water in the dry season and the consequences for water-related hazards and food, energy, and environmental security  Goal: Improved integrated river basin management to reduce physical vulnerabilities and improve food and energy security for mountain and downstream communities in the HKH region while recognizing upstream interests  Big question? How does climate change affect Himalayan glaciers, rivers, atmosphere and through these impacts, people of the Himalayas

World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) WMO Global framework  improve the basic observation activities  strengthen international cooperation  promote free exchange of hydrometeorology data and increase scientific cooperation WHYCOS's ultimate objective is to promote and facilitate the collection, analysis, exchange, dissemination and use of water-related information, using modern information technologies.

HKH-HYCOS: Setting up monitoring stations and establishment of real-time flood information systems ‘Making Information Travel Faster Than Flood Waters’ Establishment of a Regional Flood Information System in the HKH-Region - Timely exchange of flood data and information through an accessible and user friendly platform HYCOS is a vehicle for technology transfer, training, and capacity building

Designing end-to-end flood information system

Real time data acquisition and transmission

Rainfall validation: CPC-RFE2.0: 23 July 2002 Bagmati

Modified RFE

Comparison of satellite products Observed RFE2.0 Modified GSMaP CMORPH TRMM 3B42 CPC_RFE2.0

Satellite rainfall estimates: 16 June in and around Kedarnath

HICAP: Integrated policy and user-relevant research  The Himalaya Climate Change Adaptation Programme (HICAP) is one of the collaborative, policy relevant project focused on knowledge from and for local communities and for on the ground impact.  HICAP is an example of integrated research across the sciences dedicated to identifying credible, legitimate, and salient adaptation challenges and opportunities in the Hindu-Kush-Himalaya region.

HICAP: Key research questions 1.What are the potential impacts (positive and negative) of climate change and other drivers of change, and how can we enhance the capacity to monitor them? 2.What are the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the socio- economic systems? 3.What evidence based information on the potential, risks and opportunities can be provided to the decisions makers in order to increase the adaptive capacity of mountain people, especially women?

Koshi basin programme  Objective 1: Development of new policy relevant knowledge on how climatic and socio-economic drivers impact on ecosystem services and livelihoods of dependent populations.  Objective 2: Develop and test actionable adaptation pilots and livelihood strategies considering their efficacy and acceptability by various socio-cultural and gender groups  Objective 3: Contribute to developing an enabling environment for policy and decision makers to create integrated, innovative, equitable, inclusive and effective responses to protect and manage river basin ecosystems and to reduce poverty in the frame of integrated natural resources

Summary  ICIMOD works in partnerships with regional and international organizations  Facilitates knowledge exchange and a platform for regional cooperation  The new strategy aims to improve science quality and demonstrates impacts through its regional programmes  ICIMOD is a member of the SC of MAIRS and takes the lead of the mountain group  Joint workshops and conferences – June 2012 meeting in Pokhara, CORDEX South Asia workshop in August 2013  Knowledge sharing and joint publications  Improve linkages and synergize with other global and regional initiatives  Strengthened partnerships and promotion of regional and international cooperation.

Thank you

Workshop modalities  WCRP CORDEX provide global coordination of regional climate downscaling for improved regional climate change adaptation and impact assessment  Part 1: Science workshop (Day 1 and Day 2)  Part 2: Training (Day 3 and Day 4)

Workshop themes  Evaluation of monsoon climate simulation in HKH and Tibetan Plateau region from multiple climate models (onset and withdraw, seasonal and intra-seasonal variability, flood, drought, heat wave etc.).  Assessment of downscaling techniques and their products in HKH and Tibetan Plateau region to understand uncertainties accompanying the regional climate projections and examine the feasibility of climate model results.  Bridging the gaps between end users’ needs and climate modeling communities, and meeting the requests of end-users (hydrology, agriculture, water resources, land cover and ecosystem, human health etc.) on downscaled products, with definition of data types, formats and resolutions, for vulnerability, impacts and adaptation analysis.  Training of operational departments and local policy makers in South Asia and supporting local/regional policy making by providing user friendly regional downscaling products for South Asia.