1 Evaluating climate model using observations of tropical radiation and water budgets Richard P. Allan, Mark A. Ringer Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

WGCM CFMIP/IPCC Climate Sensitivity Meeting, Exeter, April 2004 Decadal Variability in Water Vapour Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems Science.

Advertisements

Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Initial tendencies of cloud regimes in the Met Office Unified Model Keith Williams and Malcolm Brooks Met Office, Hadley Centre.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 Constraining the range of climate sensitivity through the diagnosis of cloud regimes Keith Williams 1 and George Tselioudis.

© University of Reading Richard Allan Department of Meteorology, University of Reading Thanks to: Jim Haywood and Malcolm.

© University of Reading Chapman Conference on Atmospheric Water Vapor and Its Role in Climate Tropospheric Water Vapour and.

University of Reading 2007www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~rpa Monitoring satellite observations and model simulations of changes in the atmospheric.

Figure 1: Using GERB and SEVIRI data to evaluate the Met Office NWP model in near-real time; example SINERGEE comparisons for 8 th March 2006 at 1200 UTC.

IRS2004, Busan, August 2004 Using Satellite Observations and Reanalyses to Evaluate Climate and Weather Models Richard Allan Environmental Systems Science.

© University of Reading 2009 EUMETSAT Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and.

3) Empirical estimate of surface longwave radiation Use an empirical estimate of the clear-sky surface downward longwave radiation (SDLc) to estimate the.

1 Evaluating water vapour in HadAM3 using 20 years of satellite data Richard Allan, Mark Ringer Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.

Changes in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling in the atmosphere Richard Allan Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading,

Evaluating the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems.

Evaluating the Met Office global forecast model using GERB data Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading.

1 Using Reanalyses in combination with Earth Radiation Budget data to evaluate climate model simulated cloud radiative properties Richard P. Allan, Tony.

EUMETSAT 2006 Helsinki Exploitation of GERB/SEVIRI data for evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental.

Comparisons between GERB and the Met Office NWP model Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading Sean Milton,

RMS 18 th June 2003 Evaluating moisture in the Hadley Centre Climate Model using 20 years of satellite data Richard Allan Environmental Systems Science.

Atmospheric clear-sky longwave radiative cooling and precipitation Richard Allan Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading, UK.

Robin Hogan (with input from Anthony Illingworth, Keith Shine, Tony Slingo and Richard Allan) Clouds and climate.

Trends in Water Cycle meeting, Paris, November 2004 Cloud and water vapour variability: models, reanalyses and observations Richard P. Allan and Tony Slingo.

University of Reading 2007www.nerc-essc.ac.uk/~rpa Observed and simulated changes in water vapour, precipitation and the clear-sky.

© University of Reading Radiative effects of persistent aircraft contrails: a case study Richard Allan Environmental Systems.

1 03/0045a © Crown copyright Evaluating water vapour in HadAM3 with 20 years of satellite data Richard P. Allan Mark A. Ringer Met Office, Hadley Centre.

SYSTEMATIC BIASES 3-hourly comparisons of top of atmosphere radiation from GERB and the Met Office global forecast model Systematic biases in model fluxes.

Changes in Water Vapour, Clear-sky Radiative Cooling and Precipitation

IPCC Workshop on Climate Sensitivity, Paris, July 2004 Exploiting observations of water vapour to investigate simulations of water vapour feedback processes.

1 Changes in low-latitude radiative energy budget - a missing mode of variability in climate models? Richard P. Allan, Tony Slingo Hadley Centre for Climate.

GERB/CERES Meeting 2006 Exeter Evaluation of clouds and radiation in the Met Office global forecast model using GERB/SEVIRI data Richard Allan, Tony Slingo.

1 Dynamical Polar Warming Amplification and a New Climate Feedback Analysis Framework Ming Cai Florida State University Tallahassee, FL 32306

TOA radiative flux diurnal cycle variability Patrick Taylor NASA Langley Research Center Climate Science Branch NEWS PI Meeting.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2007 The influence of land use changes on pre-industrial and 20 th Century climate Richard Betts With thanks to Simon Tett (Hadley.

Anthropogenic Aerosol – A Cause Of The Weekend Effect? A significant weekly cycle has been found in diurnal temperature range (DTR). A candidate for causing.

The importance of clouds. The Global Climate System

Climate Change: Moonshine, Millions of Models, & Billions of Data New Ways to Sort Fact from Fiction Bruce Wielicki March 21, 2007 University of Miami.

Applications and Limitations of Satellite Data Professor Ming-Dah Chou January 3, 2005 Department of Atmospheric Sciences National Taiwan University.

© Crown copyright Met Office Evaluation of cloud regimes in climate models Keith Williams and Mark Webb (A quantitative performance assessment of cloud.

Radiation Group 3: Manabe and Wetherald (1975) and Trenberth and Fasullo (2009) – What is the energy balance of the climate system? How is it altered by.

Synoptic variability of cloud and TOA radiative flux diurnal cycles Patrick Taylor NASA Langley Research Center Climate Science Branch

CE 401 Climate Change Science and Engineering solar input, mean energy budget, orbital variations, radiative forcing January 2012.

3 May 2007 GIST May Professor John Harries, Professor John Harries, Space and Atmospheric Physics group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College,

Overview of the “Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB)” Experience. Nicolas Clerbaux Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB) In collaboration.

THE NOAA SSU STRATOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE CLIMATE DATA RECORD Cheng-Zhi Zou NOAA/NESDIS/Center For Satellite Applications and Research Haifeng Qian, Lilong.

Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,

The diurnal cycle in GERB data Analysis of the diurnal cycle of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) One month of GERB top of atmosphere OLR flux data from.

1 Hadley Centre Using Earth radiation budget data for climate model evaluation Mark Ringer Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK GIST 19: Aug 27-29, 2003.

Yuying Zhang, Jim Boyle, and Steve Klein Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jay Mace University.

The diurnal cycle in GERB data The diurnal cycle represents one of the most significant modes of atmospheric forcing OLR provides information about surface.

Investigations of Artifacts in the ISCCP Datasets William B. Rossow July 2006.

ISCCP Calibration 25 th Anniversary Symposium July 23, 2008 NASA GISS Christopher L. Bishop Columbia University New York, New York.

ESTIMATION OF SOLAR RADIATIVE IMPACT DUE TO BIOMASS BURNING OVER THE AFRICAN CONTINENT Y. Govaerts (1), G. Myhre (2), J. M. Haywood (3), T. K. Berntsen.

ISCCP SO FAR (at 30) GOALS ►Facilitate "climate" research ►Determine cloud effects on radiation exchanges ►Determine cloud role in global water cycle ▬

CLARREO Science Briefing 11/14/08 1 Reflected Solar Accuracy Science Requirements Bruce Wielicki, Dave Young, Constantine Lukashin, Langley Zhonghai Jin,

RT5, WP5.2 : Evaluation of processes and phenomena Objectives : Analyse the capability of the models to reproduce and predict the major modes of variations.

Using GERB and CERES data to evaluate NWP and Climate models over the Africa/Atlantic region Richard Allan, Tony Slingo, Ali Bharmal Environmental Systems.

Interannual Variability and Decadal Change of Solar Reflectance Spectra Zhonghai Jin Costy Loukachine Bruce Wielicki (NASA Langley research Center / SSAI,

© Crown copyright Met Office Predictability and systematic error growth in Met Office MJO predictions Ann Shelly, Nick Savage & Sean Milton, UK Met Office.

Overview of Climate Observational Requirements for GOES-R Herbert Jacobowitz Short & Associates, Inc.

Evaluating the Met Office global forecast model using GERB data Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading.

1 Changes in global net radiative imbalance Richard P. Allan, Chunlei Liu (University of Reading/NCAS Climate); Norman Loeb (NASA Langley); Matt.

© University of Reading 2011www.reading.ac. uk Tracking Earth’s Energy since 2000 Richard Allan University of Reading/NCAS climate Collaborators: Norman.

Radiative biases in Met Office global NWP model

Cloud Validation: The issues

Eumetsat conference 2004, Praha

Improvement of Cloud Cover Fraction parameterization in Chemistry Transport Model(CTM) Zhenzhen Yin.

Observed and Simulated Decadal Variability in Clouds and Water Vapour Richard Allan, Tony Slingo Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading.

Project Title: The Sensitivity of the Global Water and Energy Cycles:

Richard Allan ESSC, Reading University Mark Ringer

Environmental Systems Science Centre, University of Reading

Presentation transcript:

1 Evaluating climate model using observations of tropical radiation and water budgets Richard P. Allan, Mark A. Ringer Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, U.K. Tony Slingo (ESSC, Reading University) 1) Are the unexpected observed changes in the tropical radiation budget real? 2) Using cloud forcing ratio to infer cloud properties 3) Radiance simulations within the climate model

2 Are the large observed decadal changes in the tropical radiation budget artefacts of the instrumentation? [ Wielicki et al. (2002) Science, 295, ]

3 Total Channel Offset ERBS orbit drift Offset increase expected Jump in offset due to power-off - also expected. Deep-space checks in calibration over 15 years suggest uncertainty < 0.5 Wm -2 Are the changes in semi-annual SW flux cycle artefacts of orbit? Yes. Combination of 36-day precession cycle AND drift in ERBS orbit:

4 Decadal variability still appears robust and significantly larger than climate models predict Updated seasonal flux changes Updated interannual time-series

5 Multi-spectral evaluation of simulated cloud properties (!) Ratio of cloud albedo effect to cloud greenhouse effect. Removes to first order dependence on cloud fraction Improves interpretation of cloud properties from radiation budget Sub-sample dynamic regime

6 Analysing cloud radiative effect in tropical convective regime (a) ERBS radiation + ERA40 vertical velocity + ISCCP cloud (f) New dynamics model (atmos) (h) New dynamics, coupled Not enough cloud cover, too bright?

7

8 Conclusions Unexpected changes in semi-annual cycle of top of atmosphere albedo is an artefact: combination of, –Drift in orbit of ERBS satellite –Mismatch between 72 day precession cycle and monthly means Still believe decadal variation in tropical radiation budget which climate models cannot reproduce Cloud forcing ratio and dynamic regime analysis - techniques to evaluate the climate model 20-year radiance simulations completed - how reliable is the Bates et al. HIRS data?