Biobased Products Value Chain - Feedstocks, Products & Markets - Update: 4.3.2015 Rainer Busch, T+I Consulting Dietrich Wittmeyer, ERRMA

Bio-based products‘ value chains

OIL SEEDS & VEGETABLE oils

Feedstock Raw Materials Inter- mediates (Platform) Chemicals Products Markets Oil seeds Animals Oils Fats Fatty acids Fatty alcohols Glycerine Surfactants Paints & Inks Lubricants Detergents

Oilseeds: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

Vegetable Oils: European Production & Trade EU-27 Source: Fediol

Vegetable Oils: European Consumption per Sector Source: Fediol

Global production of Palm & Palm Kernel oil Also available: Global production of Palm & Palm Kernel oil Global production of Soybean oil Global production of Rapeseed oil Global production of sunflower oil Source: FAO

ANIMAL FATS

Animal Fats

SALES of VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL OILS AND FATS

SALES of VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL OILS AND FATS

Sugar

Sugar: European Sugar Crops Production & Trade

Source: CEFS, FAOSTAT, EU Commssion (DG Agri), EUROSTAT Sugar: European Sugar Production and Trade EU-27 Source: CEFS, FAOSTAT, EU Commssion (DG Agri), EUROSTAT

Sugar: European Sugar Consumption per Sector

StarchES & SWEETENERS

Starch: European Starch Plants Production & Trade EU-27 Source: DG Agri, provided by Starch Europe, EUROSTAT

Starch: European Starch Production & Trade

Starch: European Starch Consumption per Sector

Cellulose (PULP)

Cellulose: European Lignocellulose Feedstock Consumption EU-27 Source: CEPI

Cellulose: Production of Cellulose EU-27 Source: CEPI

Cellulose: European Consumption of Cellulose EU-27 Source: CEPI

PRODUCTS & Markets

Platform Chemicals

Polymers

Surfactants - not updated in 2015

Surfactants - not updated in 2015

Lubricants – not updated in 2015 Source: FUCHS AG

Composites – not updated in 2015

Solvents – not updated in 2015 2013 bio-based solvents market Total European solvents market is estimated with 5 million tonnes yearly. Different sources (Dechema, Fraunhofer Institute, ESIG) estimate today’s bio-based solvents volume with 50 to 100 KT (1 to 2%) JRC Report 2013 (EUR 25743 EN) gives a market of 630 KT bio- based solvents. Difference is identified to be related to the ethanol supply chain. An European market of 630 KT bio-based solvents can be confirmed considering bio-ethanol used directly as a solvent or as a feedstock for other solvents.

Solvents – not updated in 2015 Solvents and the Ethanol case (source NNFCC and industry): Ethanol global production 2008: 61 million tonnes (> 90% bio-based) Most applications in fuels and food & beverages Ca. 6 million tonnes for the industry Part of ethanol is used directly as a solvent, part blended with other solvents (e.g. ETOH/ETAC blend for inks), part used for downstream products (solvents like ETAC or non-solvents like ethylene, acetic acid…) Applications may switch back and forward considering market conditions The solvents application of ETOH, being bio-based or not, is very low compared with biofuel but as well industrial applications considering for example the chain ethanol  ethylene  polyethylene Bio-ethanol from biomass is a mature market being highly impacted by policies and incentives.

Solvents – not updated in 2015 Prediction (what can we reasonably say today) Main solvents application are ethanol and downstream products or blends Development of ethanol will remain highly affected by regional and local policies Other bio-based solvents (alcohols, acetates) are mainly oxygenated solvents and have very low volumes representing no more than 1% of the market Their development will depend on competitive production conditions Today, it is not possible for the solvents industry to give serious fact based prediction of bio-based solvents market.

Solvents – not updated in 2015 Some additional considerations in the bio-based solvents context Feedstock availability at competitive conditions Competitive production process Pull from downstream users Long term predictability of legal and incentives conditions Standardization will give the frame for companies and downstream users to develop their own bio-based strategies