Advanced Nowcasting Capabilities Richard L. Carpenter, Jr., Ph.D., CCM Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. MDSS Stakeholder Meeting – October 2005, Boulder, CO

About Weather Decision Technologies Founded by research meteorologists in Norman, OK, in 2000 Work with (and license technology from) research organizations Advanced uses of weather data and algorithms

Key Weather Questions When is the (snow, freezing rain, etc.) going to start? When is it going to stop? How much will accumulate?

Future Radar: MAPLE Developed at McGill University (Montreal) –Exclusively licensed by WDT

Future Radar: MAPLE Observed Predicted

Forecast of 2-hour Precip Accumulation Observed Predicted

Comparison of MAPLE with Numerical Model (WRF) Observed AccumulationWRF MAPLE Skill Map

Blending of MAPLE and Models During the first 4 hours, MAPLE performs better than models After 4-6 hours, model forecasts are more accurate than MAPLE WDT is working with McGill to optimally blend MAPLE and WRF Kilambi & Zawadzki 2005 MAPLE better   Models better Skill 

Operational MAPLE Forecasts Using NEXRAD Level II and Canadian radar mosaics 6 hour forecasts updated every 15 min 1 km grid

Conditional Precip Type Precip type (snow, freezing rain, etc.) overlay based on hourly updating numerical model (WRF)

MAPLE Precip Accumulation MAPLE NowcastMAPLE 4 h Precip Accumulation (also available by type)

Hazardous Weather Alerting 60 min threat of ¾ and 2 inch hail 60 min threat of lightning

ETA/ETD (onset/all-clear) for a given location Hazardous Weather Alerting

High-resolution Numerical Model Forecasts (WRF) National Forecast Regional/Statewide Forecasts of Temperature, Wind, Precip, and Weather Mesonet data (e.g., DOT sensors) 5 km grid