An Integrative Approach to Assess Externalities: Combining Ecological-Economic Modelling and Choice Experiments – the Context of On-Shore Wind Energy Supply Cornelia Ohl*, Jürgen Meyerhoff # * Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig # Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin) Grant No 01UN0601A, B

Overview 1.The Project 2.First Results 3.Outlook

The Project: Background Impacts on Nature CO2-emmissions and running out of resources Global Climate Change Not in my backyard positive Windenergy negative

The Project: Goals Quantifying externalities of wind energy supply with the help of Choice Experiments (CE) and an Ecological-Economic Modelling (EEM) procedure. Identification, Evaluation and Visualisation of alternative land use options. Support site selection for the installation of wind power plants

The Project: Modelling procedure Data on: Wind speed, Impacts on nature (esp. collision risk red kite) and humans (noise, shadow etc.). 3 representative wind mills (2MW, 3 MW, 6 MW) For each technology calcula- tion of: energy output, land consumption, collision risk red kite etc. Display of GIS – Maps Visualisation of e.g. Energy output (here: classified according to German EEG) (1km grids) red – low energy output green - high energy output

The Project: Identification of sites Red: Suitable sites from a nature conservation point of view Grey: Sites elected by regional planning bodies Green: Potential sites for a specific wind mill erection

The Project: Choice Experiments Characteristics of wind energy production are defined as attributes of environmental changes Focus is on: –Height of the turbines –Seize of a wind farm –Impacts on local wildlife (collision risk red kite) –Distance to settlement areas –Cost of allocation patterns (surcharge monthly power bill) Setting options presented to German public Survey includes statements concerning attitudes toward wind power generation, etc. and Choice Experiments –Two representative studies (West Saxony; Northern Hesse) –Nationwide online-survey (Accessible: June to July 2008)

First Results: Online-Survey Presentation of Attributes and levels

First Results: Online-Survey Self selection bias Respondents were gained through press releases and announcements on various web pages Thus, sample is not representative for German population, e.g.: –only 20% women in sample (nationwide around 51%) –44% of respondents buy green energy (nationwide around 5%)

First Results: Online-Survey Consistency of choices Each respondent was presented 4 choice cards during interview plus a fifth card with a dominant alternative Programm A presents status quo for wind power production in 2020

First Results: Online-Survey Choice of dominant alternative Respondents were randomly presented one of two choice cards with a dominant alternative, i.e., all attributes were at least as good as in the other alternative and at least one was better DomAlt1 Programm C dominates B DomAlt2 Programm B dominates C Programm A (Status quo 2020) 624 / 62.4 %623 / 62.5% Programm B 39 / 3.9 %331 / 32.7% Programm C 337 / 33.7%48 / 4.8 %

First Results: Online-Survey Effect of attribut level - Conditional logit Apart from “Ab_150” all variables are significant at 5% level Apart from “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” signs are as expected, e.g., price: “prei” is negative Negative sign for “Hei_110” and “Hei_150” indicates that people do not prefer a move from wind mills of 200 meter height to smaller ones

First Results: Online-Survey Implicit prices based on CL Implicit price (IP) indicates WTP for movement from one attribute level to another IP is given by: WPmid0.74 (0.32 / 1.16) WPsma-0.57 (-0.98 / -0.16) Hei_ (-2.19 / -1.19) Hei_ (-0.79 / -0.01) Natlow5.18 (4.29 / 6.07) Nathigh-6.82 (-7.98 / -5.65) Ab_ (0.21 / 1.01) Ab_ (-0.04 / 0.74)

Outlook: Evaluation of Sites Integration of Survey Results in the EE-Model Goal: Sustainable Site Selection Natur impact green = low Energy output green = high Social impact green = low S e a r c h f o r c o m p r o m i s e !

Outlook: Site Selection with MULBO Compromise 1: Equality of goals Green: Potential sites for wind power generation as selected by MULBO Blue: Sites selected by regional planning bodies Red: Wind mill erection (Typ I) not allowed by legislation

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