EDAT 17 December 2014 Local demographic trends – An older and ageing population Andy Cornelius Corporate Research & Consultation Team.

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Presentation transcript:

EDAT 17 December 2014 Local demographic trends – An older and ageing population Andy Cornelius Corporate Research & Consultation Team

Presentation structure 1. The ‘current’ position Age structure / differences across district Characteristics of our older population 2. The future – according to ONS What the latest official population projections are showing

Part 1: The current situation What the census and other local data tells us…

Total population…262,800 Usual residents Latest estimate (2013) = 269,100 (+6,300)

Broad age structure (2011)…

…Compared to national average…

Age

Age yrs -2% average Age yrs +1% average Age yrs +0.5% average Age

Age yrs -2% average Age yrs +1% average Age yrs +0.5% average 65yrs + Age

South Gloucestershire Total pop: 262.8K Median age: 40 % 65yrs+ : 17% Age

Alveston (parish) Total pop: 3,000 Median age: 51 % 65yrs+ : 30% Age

Bradley Stoke (parish) Total pop: 21,000 Median age: 32 % 65yrs + : 5% Age

Some characteristics of our older population… Accommodation and living arrangements Health and care

Accommodation and living arrangements…

Accommodation… 97% Of people aged 65yrs+ live in households

Living arrangements… 44,400 % population Age

Living arrangements… 44,400 % population Age 20,400

Living arrangements… 12,300 people aged 65+ live alone QS110EW

Living arrangements… 11.4% of houses* are occupied by a single person aged 65+ QS110EW & KS401EW *household spaces

% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs (older lone person HH) QS110EW & KS401EW % households Ward

% households occupied by lone person aged 65+yrs QS110EW & KS401EW 17.3% 2.6% % households Ward

Health & care….

The likelihood of being disabled and receiving care increases with age …..

Long-term health problem or disability by general health by ethnic group by sex by age (DC3201EW)

Carers…. 27,639 Residents provide unpaid care* for someone % of total population (national average 10.3%) * Help or support to family members, friends, neighbours or others because of either: Long-term physical or mental ill-health / disability? Problems relating to old age?

% total population

Part 2: Looking forward… What the latest official (ONS) population projections suggest….

ONS Sub-National Population Projections (SNPPs) Produced by ONS every two years Long term (25yr horizon) Official government population projections for local authority areas Used for wide range of purposes ‘Policy-off’ projections - based on recent trends in Births Deaths Migration

2012 SNPPs for South Gloucestershire….

Total population change….

Pop Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

2012 Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

(+20%) Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

By local authority…..

Total population change (%) –

East Midlands East London N E North West South EastSouth West West Mid.York & Humber Total population change (%) –

City of London (+45%) Isles of Scilly (- 13%) Total population change (%) –

South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Total population change (%) –

South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k Total population change (%) –

South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Bristol (+22%) +95.6k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k Total population change (%) –

South Glos. (+20%) 52.3k Bristol (+22%) +95.6k North Som. (+24%) +48.6k BANES. (+12%) +21.5K Total population change (%) –

218,000 more people living in the West of England by 2037 There will be:

Population aged 65+…

Total population change (%) –

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) –

Milton Keynes (+129%) Isle of Scilly (+0%) Population age 65+ yrs change (%) –

South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k BANES. (+53%) +17.3K

Population age 65+ yrs change (%) – South Glos. (+69%) 32.0k Bristol (+49%) +27.9k North Som. (+71%) +31.8k BANES. (+53%) +17.3K

101,000 more people aged 65yrs + living in the West of England by 2037 There will be:

What’s projected to drive population change…

Components of change Natural Change Births minus deaths Migration International Internal (to and from other areas of England) Cross-border (to and from other countries in UK – Wales, Scotland, N. Ireland)

For South Gloucestershire (total population)….

(+20%) Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

(+20%) Population trends – South Gloucestershire Population Year

Total annual population increase (net) + persons per year Year

2,300 PA + persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

2,300 PA 1,900 PA + persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

+ persons per year Year Total annual population increase (net)

Natural change (Births – deaths) + persons per year Year

Migration: International migration + persons per year Year

Migration: Cross-border flows (moves to / from other UK countries) + persons per year Year

Migration: Internal (moves to / from English LAs) + persons per year Year

Total annual (net) change + persons per year Year

Changes in age structure (South Glos.)….

25 years ago (1987)

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 213,700 Population Age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 12%21% 67% 213,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 12%21% 67% TDR: 47% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 47 ‘dependents’) 213,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 18%19% 64% TDR: 57% ( Eng.56%) 266,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 57% 266,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 58% 268,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 58% 271,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 56% 273,300 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 59% 275,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 60% 277,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 61% 280,100 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 62% 282,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 62% 284,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 63% 286,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 64% 289,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 64% 291,200 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 65% 293,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 65% 295,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 66% 297,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 67% 299,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 68% 301,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 69% 303,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 69% 305,900 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 70% 307,800 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 71% 309,600 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 72% 311,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 72% 313,200 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 73% 315,000 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 73% 316,700 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. TDR: 74% (for every 100 ‘workers’ 74 ‘dependents’) Eng.72% 318,400 Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs. 318,400 Population Age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs Population Age

+6,400 (+12.9%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs Population Age

+13,800 (+8.1%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs Population Age

+32,000 (+68.7%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs Population Age

Older people 80+ yrs. +15,200 (+126%) Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs Population Age

Children 0-15 yrs. Working aged yrs. Older people 65+ yrs TDR: 74% England: 72% 2012 TDR: 57% England: 56% Population Age No adjustment made for future changes in the state pension age

An update…

2013 MYE:

269,100

2013 MYE: 269,100 (+3,000 on 266,100 )

Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

,100 PA Annual change (total) MYE v 2012 SNPPs

Limitations of ONS population projections… Only available at local authority level All ONS population projections are ‘policy off’ No assumptions for future levels of housing development

In summary… By 2037, South Glos’ population projected to rise to 318.4k (+52K / +20%) Higher rate of growth than national average but lower than (long-term) historic growth Drivers of population change: Natural change + internal migration are projected to be the largest components of change Age structural changes: Flatter population structure projected in k more residents 65+yrs 15.2K more residents 80+yrs Dependency ratio projected to rise from 57% to 74% Official population projections are generally plausible, but, More recent (2013 MYE’s suggest actual growth is higher than projected) – economic recovery? : Official projections ‘policy off’

Conclusion An ageing population will have implications for all council services Issues are not unique to South Gloucestershire Projected changes broadly in-line with national averages Changes will be gradual But we should start to plan for them now