NOAA Research Supporting Hydrometeorological Science & Services: The NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Timothy Schneider NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Boulder, CO December 10, Contact:

Outline I.An Introduction to HMT II.An HMT Requirement i.Observations ii.Modeling III.Research to Operations Projects i.An Underlying Principle: Atmospheric Rivers IV.A Broader Context: Integrated Water Resource Services December 10, 20082http://hmt.noaa.gov/

I. An Introduction to HMT December 10, 2008http://hmt.noaa.gov/3

 A critical element: engaging local, state and federal stakeholders…  Will evolve as HMT evolves: Smaller panel with national scope Form Regional Implementation Teams December 10, Building Partnerships Marty Ralph NOAA/HMT

HMT: A National Testbed Strategy with Regional Implementation Dabberdt et. al., 2005: Multifunctional Mesoscale Observing Networks, BAMS, pp Ralph et. al., 2005: Improving Short-Term (0–48 h) Cool-Season Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Recommendations from a USWRP Workshop, BAMS, pp Major Activity Areas Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) Snow level and snow pack Hydrologic Applications & Surface Processes Verification & Decision Support Tools  Enhancing & Accelerating Research to Operations  Building partnerships HMT WEST - Cool Season HMT Southeast – All Season, Including Hurricane Landfall HMT “Next” (TBD) December 10, 20085http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Level of effort / activity Field Work Analysis American River Tar-Neuse River Basins Key U.S. Watershed Fiscal Year HMT-West HMT-West Legacy HMT-Southeast HMT-SE Legacy HMT-Next Regions of Focus NOAA Hydrology Program (Water Resources Data Assimilation) NOAA Science and Technology Infusion Program (Hydrometeorology Testbed) West Coast/Russian River CaljetPacjet Proof of concept HMT Prototype ^^ Hydrometeorology Testbed Timeline CalWater EFREP December 10, 20086http://hmt.noaa.gov/

II. An HMT Requirement December 10, 2008http://hmt.noaa.gov/7

A Water Resource Driver (One Example)  Societal Need: Reservoir operators and water managers need to balance demands for flood control and water supply  They can achieve this through forecast-based operational techniques are being developed by reservoir operators  Stu Townsley: “NOAA products are essential to Corps flood risk reduction mission” “The Corps supports forecast product enhancement” Water Management Section, Sacramento District, US Army Corps of Engineers December 10, 20088http://hmt.noaa.gov/

December 10, 20089http://hmt.noaa.gov/

NowCast: QPE->24 hrs.(?) QPF: 0-3 days QPF: 3-5 days QPF: 5-14 days Reforecasting (Hamill & Whitaker): probabilistic downscaling analogues for various fields Observations Subseasonal Forecasting (Weickman & Berry): global synoptic dynamic model (GSDM) Assimilatoin & Downscaling (e.g. PRISM) HMT Requirement: Produce accurate hour+ forecasts of extreme precipitation (NWS) to enable forecast-based water resource management December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/ Deterministic Forecasts (McGinley et. al.): high resolution ensembles

III. Research to Operations Projects December 10, 2008http://hmt.noaa.gov/11

A New Paradigm for Understanding West Coast Storms: Atmospheric Rivers December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Research to Operations Projects  High-resolution ensemble QPF/PQPF Ensemble means Probabilistic fields  Moisture Flux Tools GPSMet Grids Moisture Flux Verification Tool  Snow Information Tools Gridded snow level from Q2/NMQ Point verification; model bias correction  Atmospheric River (AR) ToolsPacific Atmospheric River Threat Indicator, “PARTI” Water Vapor Flux Anomaly Observational-based AR intensity Reforecasting products (NWP) *HMT Mini-Workshop on FFMP; Boulder, CO, November 2008 December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Research to Operations Projects  FFMP Alpha Tests Water vapor flux tools: Guidance QPE bias correction QPF Grids  EFREP: An HMT Legacy Network of Snow-level Radars Enhanced GPSMet Network Enhanced Soil Moisture Network Dedicated High-resolution ensemble modeling system Decision Support Tools and Advanced Display System (ALPS) *HMT Mini-Workshop on FFMP; Boulder, CO, November 2008 December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

IV. A Broader Context: Integrated Water Resource Services December 10, 2008http://hmt.noaa.gov/15

NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services Priority Area Task Team: FY 2009 Activities  Too Little Water: National Integrated Drought Information System  Too Much Water: Hydrometeorology Testbed West Carry out winter season field operations for the Carson and American River basins Deploy advanced observational technology to support NOAA/USGS Debris Flow Warning pilots for San Diego, Los Angeles, and Monterey Bay areas Soil moisture demonstration for monsoon season flash flood support in San Pedro Basin in Southern AZ Southeast Conduct two workshops to identify operational needs and research priorities Develop project implementation plan for Tar/Neuse watersheds  Water Quality (Delaware River Basin/Estuary & Great Lakes  Coast Estuary River Information System (CERIS) & Coastal and Inland Flooding Observation and Warning (CI-FLOW) December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Towards An Integrated Approach NOAA Integrated Water Resource Services  Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) Southeast Deploy and install advanced observing systems Conduct intensive observational periods Initiate research projects Transition tools/findings into NWS operations  Coastal-Estuary-River Information System (CERIS) Implementation (Tar/Neuse/Pamlico) CI-FLOW Demonstration (Sea Grant Sponsored R&D Effort) Provide routine access to HMT Southeast data Migrate coupled water forecasting system to NOAA operations Develop, deliver, evaluate and enhance new products and services  THORPEX Medium Range QPF research supporting HMT Ensemble numerical modeling for QPF Strengthens University partner engagement December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Thank You! December 10, Contact: Backup Slides

Demonstration GPRAs in Testbeds “Infusion” Performance Measures “Science” Performance Measures “Technology” Performance Measures Linking Science, Technology & Infusion Performance Measures to NOAA GPRA Measures Service GPRA (e.g., QPF) Performance measures for “service” programs (e.g., LFW) Performance measures for ST&I (an enabling program) Today’s predictive services exist on a foundation of earlier innovation in science and technology December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/

 HMT introduced a real-time, wind profiler- derived, snow-level product that is updated hourly on the internet.  This new capability prompted NWS staff at the CNRFC to ask ESRL to quantify operational snow level forecast performance.  Lundquist et al. (2008) in J. Hydrometeor. documented the relationship to snow at ground level  15% of the freezing level forecast errors were greater than +/- 1,000 ft.  When predicted snow level is below what is observed, this translates to underestimates in stream flow, e.g., a 2,000 ft snow-level error can cause a factor of 3 runoff error (White et al., J. Tech. 2002) On Developing a Performance Measure for Snow Level Forecasts snow rain Results courtesy of Dr. Allen White and Dan Gottas (ESRL/PSD) 20

 HMT has worked with forecast users to identify critical needs for extreme event prediction.  The existing performance measure for QPF (1 inch “threat score”) does not address this need.  17 sites were used to assess QPF performance for events exceeding 1 inch, 3 inches, and 5 inches in 24 hours, at 1, 2 and 3-day lead times. On Developing a Performance Measure for Forecasting Extreme Precipitation  Of 16 events with >5 inches in 24 hours, the QPF bias was low (1-day lead) (2-day lead) (3-day lead)  Of 16 events with >5 inches of rain in 24 h, 2 were predicted 1 day ahead - 5 inch POD = 0.06 NWS California-Nevada River Forecast Center Prototype QPF performance measures for extreme precipitation events are being developed and baselines are being created by HMT -Probability of Detecting (Forecasting) a >5 inch event -Bias of QPF in events with >5 inches rain observed 21

The HMT Concept Testbed as a Process  HMT is about “too much water”… But is intertwined with broader water resource management, climate & drought issues  Objectives: To advance our understanding, monitoring and prediction of processes leading to extreme precipitation and associated flooding To demonstrate and evaluate new research and technology through a national strategy employing regional testbeds To accelerate and enhance research to operations December 10, http://hmt.noaa.gov/ Marty Ralph NOAA/HMT