1 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey Climate System Monitoring and Research Needs Thomas C. Peterson Chief Scientist, National Climatic Data Center, NOAA Asheville, NC, USA and Chair, OPAG on Monitoring and Analysis of Climate Variability and Change Commission for Climatology World Meteorological Organization

2 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 2 Outline State of the art in climate system monitoring Research needs – Essential Climate Variables – Turning data into Climate Data Records – The quest for more in situ data Key first step is increasing local understanding Cross-border verification

3 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 3 Climate Monitoring State of the Art Annual review 196 pages 280 authors from 42 countries Peer-reviewed Published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society NOAA/NCDC led with WMO collaboration

4 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 4 Inclusive (new authors welcome)

5 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 5 Synthesizes many different sources of data

6 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 6

7 7 From the top of the atmosphere to the bottom of the ocean. Sections of dissolved inorganic carbon (μmol kg −1 ) nominally along 105°W in (top) 2008 and (middle) The bottom section shows the DICchange between the two cruises (2008–1994). Black dots show sample locations. Inset map shows cruise track in red.

8 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 8 Both long-term trends and detrended information.

9 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 9

10 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 10 Regional analyses Tropical storms in the Northern Indian Ocean

11 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 11

12 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 12 (a) Ozone hole area, 1979–2008. (b) Temperature at 50 hPa from 60° to 75°S during Sep 1979–2008. The vertical bars represent the range of values from the individual days of Sep.

13 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 13 Research Needs Monitor all GCOS Essential Climate Variables

14 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 14 GCOS ECVs Not all GCOS Essential Climate Variables are currently being monitored BAMS State of the Climate 2008

15 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey Atmospheric ECVs (no changes) Surface – Air temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Pressure, Precipitation, Surface radiation budget. Upper-air – Temperature, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties, Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance). Composition – Carbon dioxide, Methane, and other long-lived greenhouse gases. Ozone and Aerosol, supported by their precursors

16 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey Oceanic ECVs Surface – Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Surface current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity Sub-surface – Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Oxygen, Tracers, Phytoplankton; Marine biodiversity and habitat properties

17 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey Terrestrial ECVs River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lakes, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, Soil moisture, Terrestrial biodiversity and habitat properties

18 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 18 Research Needs Turning data into Climate Data Records

19 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 19 Climate Monitoring Not as simple as launching a satellite or exchanging some data Data must be rigorously quality controlled to account for potential errors in data entry, transmission or instrument malfunction. Data must be processed to remove time-dependent biases – Such as the jump from one satellite to the next – Or changes in sea surface temperatures from ships to buoys Peer-reviewed article describing data set creation approaches taken – But still no guarantee that it is accurate Helps to compare to other data sets

20 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 20 Data set agreement Surface temperature data agree very well – With very different approaches to address time-dependent biases Upper air data vary considerably – Both satellite and radiosonde data – A measure of structural uncertainty

21 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 21 Research Needs Quest for more in situ data – Key first step is increasing local understanding Or data aren’t appreciated

22 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey Global Historical Climatology Network-Monthly Greatest coverage during 1960s and 1970s Primarily relies on CLIMAT data for real-time updates

23 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 23 Climate Extremes Workshops Coordinated by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices Will be discussed shortly Hands-on teaching of data processing Quality control, homogeneity testing Calculation of the indices Analysis of how extremes are changing Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2008

24 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 24 Climate Extremes Workshops Key outcome: Increased appreciation for data Daily Maximum Temperature Berberati, Central African Republic Before Brazzaville Workshop After Workshop Aguilar et al., 2009

25 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 25 Research Needs Quest for more in situ data – Cross-border verification Key step towards sharing data

26 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 26 Sharing Indices and Data Behind Them Most countries released their indices Thanks to the workshops Updating the indices is still a challenge. Sharing the data themselves, necessary to make the analyses reproducible, is still very limited

27 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 27 Cross-border Analysis and Verification A key part of the process Fostered by the annual State of the Climate report a) Annual mean temperature anomalies for South America for 2008 (°C); (b) annual total precipitation anomalies (% normal).

28 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey 28 Summary Real-time global climate monitoring poses tremendous challenges. But international collaboration is continually improving our understanding of how the world’s climate is changing. New authors welcome for the BAMS State of the Climate report Society needs this information to help guide adaptation to climate change

29 Climate Monitoring Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services, 18 February 2010, Antalya, Turkey See for more information on climate monitoring, including pdfs of the annual Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society’s State of the Climate