Cohort fertility trends across Europe: commonalities and anomalies Marion Burkimsher Affiliated to the University of Lausanne

The pros and cons of studying cohort v. period fertility It describes how many children women actually have, not distorted by timing effects (deflation from postponement) It gives the best assessment of how many women will ultimately end up childless It is much more stable than period fertility rates But we cannot know (for certain) how many children women will have until they reach ~45 (ie cohort with today’s data) This is an increasing problem as women are having babies later and later in their reproductive life

Data source and projection method Human Fertility Database ( Age-specific fertility rates by birth order for 15 countries: 6 in Western Europe; 7 in Eastern Europe Plus combined birth orders for UK, Germany, France ASTLE (age-specific trend with limited extrapolation) method for projecting completed cohort fertility, as proposed by Myrskylä, Goldstein and Cheng (2013) Focus on cohorts born , especially those born in 1970s: ‘emerging trends’, though some level of uncertainty

Netherlands asfrVHbo ASFR1 Cohort fertility rates by birth cohort, age and birth order (horizontal parallelograms, age in completed years (ACY))

Countries with decline and rebound in cohort fertility

Countries with relatively stable cohort fertility

Countries with ongoing decline in cohort fertility (although they saw rising period TFRs after ~2000)

Observations Family sizes are very different across Europe 2 children average seen in Scandinavian countries (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia) plus Britain and France Germanic countries have smallest family sizes, <1.6 children (Germany, Austria), now also Portugal, Hungary, Slovakia Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Rep seeing ongoing decline Rebound in fertility after ~1972 cohort across many countries; reflects period TFR rebound which happened ~2000 Range in 1960= ; 1970= ; 1980= Highest Slovakia>Norway>Britain | Lowest Germany>Portugal

Change in CTFR by birth order from cohort (grey bars for no birth order data)

Change in CTFR by birth order from cohort (grey bars for no birth order data)

Observations In most countries changes in birth order rates are all in the same direction Decline in family sizes across all countries between 1960 and 1970 cohort Changes in birth order 2 contributed most to the change (+ve or -ve) in fertility in most (but not all) countries In (almost) all Eastern European countries there has been an ongoing decline in first birth rates (= rise in childlessness). In the communist era marriage and childbearing was early and almost universal

CTFR and CTFR1 trajectories between 1970 & 1980 cohorts

CTFR and CTFR>1 trajectories between 1970 & 1980 cohorts

Observations Bulgaria and Portugal have lower levels of childlessness than would be predicted from their overall fertility rate Finland has a significantly higher level of childlessness than would be expected from it overall fertility rate (Britain is probably similar) Rises and falls in birth order fertility rates >1 are always associated with rises/falls in total fertility rates However, several ex-communist countries (Estonia, Russia, Lithuania, Slovenia) have seen an increase in childlessness (decline in CTRF1) but a rise in higher order births

Commonalities Most countries are seeing a bottoming out and then stabilisation or a rise in the total fertility rate of cohorts born after 1970 There was a universal decline in fertility between women born in 1960 and those born in 1970 in Europe All Eastern European countries have seen a increase in childlessness since the 1960 cohort An increase in higher order births (>1) is associated with an increase in total fertility, and vice versa

Anomalies Although most countries’ CTFR is stable or rising, Portugal, Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia are seeing ongoing decline Low childlessness does not always equate to higher fertility; Bulgaria and Portugal have lower childlessness than would be expected from their total fertility High childlessness (20%+) does not always equate to lower fertility; Finland has a higher level of childlessness than would be expected from its overall fertility rate (Britain is probably similar) A rise in childlessness is not always associated with a decline in total fertility; Estonia, Russia, Lithuania and Slovenia have seen a rise in childlessness at the same time as a rise in overall fertility

Papers Myrskylä, Mikko, Joshua R. Goldstein, and Yen ‐ hsin Alice Cheng (2013). ‘New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals.’ Population and Development Review 39(1): Burkimsher, Marion. Forthcoming. ‘Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates.’ Demographic Research.

Thank you!