NOAA’s Contributions to the Aviation Community Regarding Volcanic Ash James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program June 21, 2004

2 NOAA’s Role in Volcanic Ash Hazards Mitigation Birth of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs) VAAC Information Sources (Satellite & Non-Satellite) Volcanic Ash Information Dissemination Reventador Eruption: Imagery & Sample Ash Products Example: Washington VAAC Activity in 2003 Future Challenges “Classic” example of volcanic ash detection from AVHRR, evidence of a hazardous ash cloud thousands of kilometers downwind from the volcano. The cloud was “intact” several days after the main eruption

3 Wellington Darwin Tokyo Washington Montreal London Anchorage Buenos Aires Toulouse International VAAC Boundaries 0

4 VAACs Pacific NW WFOs Other U.S. government agencies including AWC, DoD (AFWA), FEMA ACCs FAA Other VAACs Airlines, Aviation community MWOs Washington & Anchorage VAAC Customers VAAC = Volcanic Ash Advisory Center MWO = Meteorological Watch Office WFO = Weather Forecast Office AWC = Aviation Weather Center FAA = Federal Aviation Administration DoD = Department of Defense AFWA = Air Force Weather Agency FEMA = Federal Emergency Management Agency ACC = Area Control Center Abbreviations:

5 GOES, POES & Meteosat thermal IR GOES & POES PCI (Principle Component Imagery) GOES, POES Meteosat & MODIS Visible GOES, POES Multi-spectral Products TOMS SO2 (NASA) Satellite-Derived Sources of Information GOES, POES, Meteosat & MODIS shortwave IR Overlays Boundaries – Countries, Airspaces Winds – Cloud motion, models, & soundings Volcano locations GOES=Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite POES=Polar Operational Environmental Satellite TOMS=Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer CIRA=Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere MODIS=Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer VAACs Abbreviations:

6 FAA AFTN Airlines Cable TV Phone calls, Faxes News reports Other VAACs SIGMETs, MWOs GTS, FOS, Phone calls PIREPs Weather Observations GTS, FOS Volcanologists (Observatories, USGS, Smithsonian) , Phone calls GTS, Phone calls to GTS, FOS Internet Non-Satellite Sources of Information AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network ATC=Air Traffic Control FOS=Family of Services GTS=Global Telecommunication System PIREPS=Pilot Reports SIGMETs= Significant Meteorological Statements VAACs Forecast Models

7 WAFs Internet site FOS AFTN (FAA circuits) AWIPS & N-AWIPS (NWS systems) GTS Listserv VAACs Dissemination of Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAAs) AFTN=Aeronautical Fixed Telecommunications Network FAA=Federal Aviation Administration FOS=Family of Services GTS=Global Telecommunication System WAFs=World Area Forecast Satellite Broadcast System NWS=National Weather Service AWIPS=Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System Abbreviations:

8 Volcanic Ash Advisory (VAA) for Reventador Eruption

9 Sample VAFTAD

10 Case Study: Eruption in Equador Reventador Ecuador Pacific Ocean Dormant since 1976, El Reventador in northeast Ecuador erupted violently on November 3, 2002 sending ash as high as 60,000 feet above sea level. Ash was observed spreading in two directions due to sheering at different levels, threatening aviation routes for thousands of square miles around the volcano. Quito In the above GOES-8 visible imagery loop, ash can be distinguished from weather clouds due to the dark color of the ash.

11 Visible & Multi-spectral Signatures for Reventador Eruption Satellite imagery showing ash from the Reventador eruption.  Figure A shows ash (appearing as a smoky whitish area) in visible imagery at 1615Z.  Figure B is a multi-spectral infrared satellite image taken half an hour later (1645Z). The northeast edge of the ash (which appears in this multi-spectral algorithm as a dark gray/black area) has now extended into Colombia.

Volcanic Ash Advisories (VAA) & 814 graphical ash analyses were issued in the Year of In 2003, the number of VAA almost doubled (195%) & the number of graphics almost tripled (292%) compared to last year (2002). This year, VAA were issued for 11 volcanoes:  Anatahan in the Mariana Islands,  Soufriere Hills in the Caribbean,  Tungurahua & Guagua Pichincha in Ecuador,  Popocatepetl & Colima in Mexico,  Masaya in Nicaragua,  Chikurachki in the Russian Kurile Islands as well as,  Fuego, Pacaya & Santa Maria in Guatemala VAAs 2003 Graphics Washington VAAC Volcanic Ash Support

13 Future Challenges Meet the increasing requirements of aviation community through continued research & interagency collaboration in satellite-based volcanic ash detection including:  Accurate ash height assignments  Detection & tracking of SO2 emissions  Enhanced ash cloud forecasts  Improved timeliness of eruption notification  Graphical products for realtime cockpit use Leverage off future satellite data streams with improved capabilities for enhanced volcanic ash detection & monitoring (e.g. NPOESS)

BACKUP SLIDES

15 Infrared (channel 4) “Three channel product” or “Ellrod product” (channels 2, 4 & 5) Channel Differencing (channels 4 & 5) “Reflectivity product” or “CIRA product” (channels 2 & 4) AB CD

16 Satellite imagery of volcanic ash cloud at all heights.Satellite technique showing only high level thick ash. Eruption Volcanic ash in the Caribbean impacted holiday air traffic from Trinidad to Puerto Rico. Washington VAAC

17 Visible Image of Guagua Pichincha Eruption