On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Philip Pegion, Randal Koster and Julio Bacmeister Global Modeling and Assimilation.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

VEGETATION FEEDBACK AND DROUGHTS Russell Bird – 3 rd Year Atmospheric Science.

Advertisements

An Investigation of the Spring Predictability Barrier Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Michele Rienecker, Augustine Vintzileos* and Nicole.

1 Trend and Year-to-year Variability of Land-Surface Air Temperature and Land-only Precipitation Simulated by the JMA AGCM By Shoji KUSUNOKI, Keiichi MATSUMARU,

The Perfect Ocean for Drought, Martin Hoerling & Arun Kumar On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl, Siegfried D. Schubert, Max J. Suarez, Philip J. Pegion,

Proposed Model Simulations The idea is for several modeling groups to do identical (somewhat idealized) experiments to address issues of model dependence.

Suzana J. Camargo Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University ANALYSIS OF 20 TH CENTURY ATLANTIC HURRICANE POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND TROPICAL CYCLONE.

Indian Monsoon, Indian Ocean dipoles and ENSO Pascal Terray LOCEAN/IPSL, France Fabrice Chauvin CNRM/Météo-France, France Sébastien Dominiak LOCEAN/IPSL,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

Drought Modeling Experiments Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas & Sumant Nigam University of Maryland 12 th Annual CCSM Workshop Breckenridge, CO June 19-21, 2007.

Analysis of Seasonal to Decadal Variability in a Coupled General Circulation Model Sonya K. Miller 1, Michele M. Rienecker 2, Max J. Suarez 2, Siegfried.

Amplification of the 'Dust Bowl' drought through human induced land degradation Benjamin I. Cook 1,2 Richard M. Seager 1, Ronald L. Miller 2 1 Lamont-Doherty.

Influence of local and remote SST on North Atlantic tropical cyclone potential intensity Suzana J. Camargo, Mingfang Ting and Yochanan Kushnir LDEO, Columbia.

Protecting our Health from Climate Change: a Training Course for Public Health Professionals Chapter 2: Weather, Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate.

A Link between Tropical Precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Matt Sapiano and Phil Arkin Earth Systems Science Interdisciplinary Center, University.

Pacific vs. Indian Ocean warming: How does it matter for global and regional climate change? Joseph J. Barsugli Sang-Ik Shin Prashant D. Sardeshmukh NOAA-CIRES.

Tropical Pacific Ocean forcing of the decadal shift in global precipitation Lyon, Barnston, DeWitt, Climate Dynamics (revised)

Impact of common SST anomalies on global drought and pluvial frequency Kirsten Findell and Tom Delworth Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton,

Diurnal and semi-diurnal cycles of convection in an aqua-planet GCM

Potential Predictability of Drought and Pluvial Conditions over the Central United States on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales Siegfried Schubert, Max.

© Crown copyright Met Office CLIVAR Climate of the 20 th Century Project Adam Scaife, Chris Folland, Jim Kinter, David Fereday January 2009.

Current Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction System and On-going Activities at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Myong-In Lee, Siegfried Schubert,

EUROBRISA Workshop – Beyond seasonal forecastingBarcelona, 14 December 2010 INSTITUT CATALÀ DE CIÈNCIES DEL CLIMA Beyond seasonal forecasting F. J. Doblas-Reyes,

Changes of Seasonal Predictability Associated with Climate Change Kyung Jin and In-Sik Kang Climate Environment System Research Center Seoul National University.

1 Hadley Centre The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate Jeff Knight,

Climate Change in the Yaqui Valley David Battisti University of Washington 1.Climatological Annual Cycle –Winter vs. Summer 2.Variability(Winter) –ENSO.

Improved ensemble-mean forecast skills of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic model-error model of an intermediate coupled model Jiang Zhu and Fei Zheng.

How much do different land models matter for climate simulation? Jiangfeng Wei with support from Paul Dirmeyer, Zhichang Guo, Li Zhang, Vasu Misra, and.

Model Intercomparison Discussion Fred Kucharski (Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy) and Adam Scaife (MetOffice, Exeter, UK) as discussion leader.

C20C Workshop ICTP Trieste 2004 The Influence of the Ocean on the North Atlantic Climate Variability in C20C simulations with CSRIO AGCM Hodson.

Page 1© Crown copyright 2006 Matt Huddleston With thanks to: Frederic Vitart (ECMWF), Ruth McDonald & Met Office Seasonal forecasting team 14 th March.

© Crown copyright Met Office Decadal predictions of the Atlantic ocean and hurricane numbers Doug Smith, Nick Dunstone, Rosie Eade, David Fereday, James.

Status of the Sea Ice Model Testing of CICE4.0 in the coupled model context is underway Includes numerous SE improvements, improved ridging formulation,

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone structure change with a 20-km-mesh high-resolution global model Hiroyuki Murakami (AESTO/MRI, Japan) Akio.

Diagnostics, Special Projects and Phenomena of Interest Review of 2 nd C20C Workshop for 3 rd C20C Workshop ICTP, Trieste, Italy, 21 April 2004.

Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,

The European Heat Wave of 2003: A Modeling Study Using the NSIPP-1 AGCM. Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA/GSFC Philip Pegion (1), Siegfried.

Mechanisms of drought in present and future climate Gerald A. Meehl and Aixue Hu.

Dynamical MJO Hindcast Experiments: Sensitivity to Initial Conditions and Air-Sea Coupling Yehui Chang, Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez Global Modeling.

Understanding Eastern Africa Rainfall Variability and Change (Towards Improved Prediction of Seasonal Precipitation) Brant Liebmann University of Colorado,

Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder Dynamical.

Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.

2010/ 11/ 16 Speaker/ Pei-Ning Kirsten Feng Advisor/ Yu-Heng Tseng

The GEOS-5 AOGCM List of co-authors Yury Vikhliaev Max Suarez Michele Rienecker Jelena Marshak, Bin Zhao, Robin Kovack, Yehui Chang, Jossy Jacob, Larry.

Northwest European High Summer Climate Variability, the West African Monsoon and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Jim Hurrell, NCAR, & Chris Folland,

PAPER REVIEW R Kirsten Feng. Impact of global warming on the East Asian winter monsoon revealed by nine coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs Masatake.

Modes of variability and teleconnections: Part II Hai Lin Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada Advanced School and Workshop on S2S ICTP,

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office NASA/GSFC GMAO Merger of NSIPP and the DAO offices at GSFC Science areas: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal-to-Decadal Prediction.

Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction Experiment with the NCEP CFS CGCM Lindsey Long and Jae Schemm Climate Prediction Center / Wyle IS NOAA/NWS/NCEP October.

Alex Jovich- Atmospheric Sciences The Perfect Ocean for Drought On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl Martin Hoerling Science Vol Jan Siegfried.

Climate Variability and Basin Scale Forcing over the North Atlantic Jim Hurrell Climate and Global Dynamics Division National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Application of T382 CFS Forecasts for Dynamic Hurricane Season Prediction J. Schemm, L. Long, S. Saha and S. Moorthi NOAA/NWS/NCEP October 21, 2008 The.

Effects of trends in anthropogenic aerosols on drought risk in the Central United States Dan H. Cusworth Eric M. Leibensperger, Loretta J. Mickley Corn.

Advances in Fundamental Climate Dynamics John M. Wallace et al.

Multidecadal simulations of the Indian monsoon in SPEEDY- AGCM and in a coupled model Annalisa Bracco, Fred Kucharski and Franco Molteni The Abdus Salam.

Relationship of U.S. Summer Droughts with SST and Soil Moisture: Distinguishing the Time Scale of Droughts Renguang Wu Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

Analysis of Typhoon Tropical Cyclogenesis in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Suzana J. Camargo and Adam H. Sobel.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

The role of Atlantic ocean on the decadal- multidecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon Observational and paleoclimate evidences Observational and.

The Great 20 th Century Drying of Africa Ninth Annual CCSM Workshop Climate Variability Working Group 9 July 2004, Santa Fe Jim Hurrell, Marty Hoerling,

ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Suryachandra A. Rao Colloborators: Hemant, Subodh, Samir, Ashish & Kiran Dynamical Seasonal Prediction.

Summer Monsoon – Global Ocean Interactions Ben Kirtman George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Acknowledgements: Randy Wu and.

Principal Investigator: Siegfried Schubert

The Impact of SST and Vegetation Changes on Long-Term Drought

Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, and Sumant Nigam

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO, is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The PDO pattern [is] marked by widespread.

Interactions between the Responses of

20th Century Sahel Rainfall Variability in IPCC Model Simulations and Future Projection Mingfang Ting With Yochanan Kushnir, Richard Seager, Cuihua Li,

Decadal prediction in the Pacific

Combined Effect without Soil Moisture Feedback

Presentation transcript:

On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Philip Pegion, Randal Koster and Julio Bacmeister Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Earth Sciences Directorate 28th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop Reno, Nevada October 2003

The Dust Bowl I.What is the role of SSTs? - different ocean basins - extratropical versus tropical II. Are land/atmosphere feedbacks important? III.How is it different from other Great Plains droughts of the 20th century? IV. Can we predict the next one?

AGCM: NSIPP-1 (NASA S-I Prediction Project) Climatology and Skill (Bacmeister et al. 2000, Pegion et al. 2000, Schubert et al. 2002) Global grid point dynamical core, 4rth Order (Suarez and Takacs 1995) Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert Convection (Moorthi and Suarez 1992) Shortwave/Longwave Radiation (Chou et al. 1994, 1999) Mosaic interactive land model (Koster and Suarez 1992, 1996) 1 st Order PBL Turbulence Closure (Louis et al. 1982) AGCM runs with Specified SST (C20C project) HadISST and sea ice dataset ( ) 14 ensemble members - same SST, different ICs Model resolution: 3 degree latitude by 3.75 degree longitude (34 levels)

The Dust Bowl

Other Droughts

Corr=0.57 ?

PPP ENSO Trend Low Pass EOF 1 (Trend)Low Pass EOF 2 (PPP) Residual EOF 1 (ENSO)PC Time Series

Correlation between PPP and Great Plains Precipitation (low frequency -> 6 years and longer) Individual ensemble member precipitation Min = 0.31 max = 0.70, Ensemble mean precipitation (= 0.74) Observed precipitation (= 0.41)

1970s Dust Bowl?

Borchert, John R. “The Dust Bowl of the 1970s”, AAAG, vol 61, March 1971 ABSTRACT: Major droughts in the Grassland region of the central United States have occurred rhythmically during the period of the instrumental record. The time for the next one may be near. ….

“By mid February of 1977 the midwestern US was experiencing one of the most severe droughts in its recorded history … dramatic dust storms blew up in eastern Colorado and western Kansas and Oklahoma …drought was actually most severe in Minnesota and Dakotas …” “By the fall of 1977 the general drought picture …. had changed significantly” Symposium on North American Droughts - February (Introduction by Norman Rosenberg, AAAS Selected Symposium 15)

Conclusions based AGCM Results Tropical SST anomalies and land/atmosphere feedbacks caused the 1930s dust bowl All three tropical ocean basins played a role –Cool Pacific and Indian (remote response - upper level flow) –Warm Atlantic (local response - upper and low level flow) –Extra-tropical SSTs acted to extend the drought to the east The SST forcing of the Dust Bowl differs from that of other major droughts (1910s and 1950s where the Pan Pacific Pattern of SST is the main driver) Predicting future Dust Bowls/droughts: need better coupled models with improved simulation of decadal ocean variability, and reduced uncertainty in land/atmosphere coupling; also need better understanding of role of ENSO and global warming