GEOENGINEERING – WHY AND THE NEXT STEPS DENVER CLIMATE STUDY GROUP NOVEMBER 10, 2009 SOL SHAPIRO

WHY? – AND THE NEXT STEPS THE PLANET IS WARMING THREATENING INCREASED CLIMATE CATASTROPHES IN AN UNCERTAIN TIME FRAME REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS AS A SOLUTION ISN’T HAPPENING (IF CAUSED BY FOSSIL FUEL) –THIS PLACES MORAL RESPONSIBILITY ON US IF WE HAVE ANOTHER SOLUTION AND DO NOT ACT WE NEED A “PLAN B” (WHATEVER THE CAUSE) –TO UNDERSTAND WHAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO DO WITH GEOENGINEERING – BENEFITS AND RISKS –AND TO BE READY TO DEPLOY UNDER INTERNATIONAL TREATY CONTROL

GEOENGINEERING – DEFINITION AND HISTORY GEOENGINEERING IS THE INTENTIONAL LARGE-SCALE MANIPULATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT, THAT IS INTENDED TO REDUCE UNDESIRED CLIMATE CHANGE HISTORICALLY AN EARLY DISCUSSION OF ANTHROPOGENIC WARMING WAS IN 1905: ARRHENIUS SPECULATED ABOUT A VIRTUOUS CIRCLE IN WHICH CO2 EMISSIONS FROM A GROWING FOSSIL FUELED CIVILIZATION WOULD WARM THE CLIMATE SOME OF MY “EARLY” KEY REFERENCES FOR GEOENGINEERING –A HOOVER INSTITUTE PAPER BY EDWARD TELLER IN 1998 –AN EXCELLENT STANFORD LAW REVIEW PAPER IN 1998 BY JAY MICHAELSON –A NEW YOUR TIMES ARTICLE BY WILLIAM BROAD IN 2006 –PAPER IN CLIMATE CHANGE JOURNAL OF 2006 BY NOBEL LAUREATE PAUL CRUTZEN WITH ENDORSEMENT FOR STUDY BY RALPH CICERONE, PRESIDENT OF NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS: SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT AND CARBON REMOVAL SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT REFLECTS ABOUT 1 ½ TO 2% OF SOLAR RADIATION TO OFFSET ABOUT DOUBLE CO2 – POSSIBLE APPROACHES ARE: –SULFITES IN THE STRATOSPHERE – ABOUT 5% OF CURRENT WORLD SULFITE ANNUAL EMISSIONS –CLOUD SEEDING OVER OCEANS –SURFACE ALBEDO ENHANCEMENT – ABOUT 4 MILLION SQUARE MILES FROM “BLACK” TO “WHITE” CARBON REMOVAL USES SUCH PROCESSES AS: -BIOCHAR -AIR CAPTURE -OCEAN FERTILIZATION

RECENT RELEVANT CALLS FOR STUDY AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY POLICY STATEMENT TO GEOENGINEER CLIMATE OF JULY 2009 –CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS THAT GEOENGINEERING IS A “LAST RESORT” –DEFINES 3 APPROACHES – REDUCING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVELS, REFLECTING SUNLIGHT AND OTHERS – SUCH AS TRANSPORT CO2 TO OCEAN DEPTHS “Therefore, the American Meteorological Society recommends: Enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential for geoengineering the climate system, including research on intended and unintended environmental responses. Coordinated study of historical, ethical, legal, and social implications of geoengineering that integrates international, interdisciplinary, and intergenerational issues and perspectives and includes lessons from past efforts to modify weather and climate. Development and analysis of policy options to promote transparency and international cooperation in exploring geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless efforts to manipulate the climate system.”

THE ROYAL SOCIETY – GEOENGINEERING THE CLIMATE; SCIENCE, GOVERNANCE AND UNCERTAINTY – SEPTEMBER 2009 “KEY RECOMMENDATIONS PARTIES TO THE UNFCCC SHOULD MAKE INCREASED EFFORTS TOWARDS MITIGATING AND ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND IN PARTICULAR TO AGREEING TO GLOBAL EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS OF AT LEAST 50% OF 1990 LEVELS BY 2050 AND MORE THEREAFTER NOTHING NOW KNOWN ABOUT GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS GIVES ANY REASON TO DIMINISH THESE EFFORTS FURTHER RESEARCH AND DEVLOPMENT OF GEOENGINEERING OPTIONS SHOULD BE UNDERTAKEN TO INVESTIGATE WHETHER LOW RISK METHODS CAN BE MADE AVAILABLE - IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY TO REDUCE THE RATE OF WARMING THIS CENTURY THIS SHOULD INCLUDE APPROPRIATE OBSERVATIONS, THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE MODELS, AND CAREFULLY PLANNED AND EXECUTED EXPERIMENTS”

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AMERICA’S CLIMATE CHOICES PROGRAM HEAR INPUTS ON GEOENGINEERING FROM SUMMIT MEETING OF MARCH 30/31: SESSION 9: 53:00, SESSION 5 34:30-38:00, 13:20, 1:09:00, SESSION 9 12:00 PAPERS FROM GEOENGINEERING WORKSHOP OF JUNE SOCOLOW – A SUMMARY OF WHERE I THINK THE ACC REPORT TO BE PUBLISHED IN EARLY 2010 WILL GO - OTHER PAPERS ARE AVAILABLE INCLUDING SOME MINIMAL STUDIES

HOUSE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COMMITTEE HEARING ON GEOENGINEERING NOVEMBER 5 WITNESSES INCLUDED CHAIR OF THE BRITISH ROYAL SOCIETY STUDY AND NATIONAL ACADEMY PARTICIPANTS IN GEOENGINEERING WORKSHOP GEOENGINEERING VIEWED AS “PLAN B” RESEARCH FUNDING NEEDED HOUSE WORKING WITH HOUSE OF COMMONS MORE HEARINGS ARE PLANNED s.aspx?NewsID=2668 FOR ARCHIVED VIDEO, ETC. s.aspx?NewsID=2668

IPCC AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY VIEW OF GEOENGINEERING TREATED LIKE THE “CRAZY AUNT IN THE ATTIC ABOUT WHOM WE DON’T TALK” BY THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY FROM EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OF IPCC MITIGATION REPORT OF 2007 – ON PAGE 15: Geo-engineering options, such as ocean fertilization to remove CO2 directly from the atmosphere, or blocking sunlight by bringing material into the upper atmosphere, remain largely speculative and unproven, and with the risk of unknown side-effects. Reliable cost estimates for these options have not been published. FROM AN INSIGHT ARTICLE BY STEVE SCHNEIDER OF THE IPCC AND STANFORD UNIVERSITY As a member of that panel, I can report that the very idea of including a chapter on geoengineering led to serious internal and external debates. Many participants (including myself) were worried that even the thought that we could offset some aspects of inadvertent climate modification by deliberate modification schemes could be used as an excuse to continue polluting.

GEOENGINEERING CAN PLAY A ROLE IN US ENERGY SECURITY THE TUNNEL VISION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL COMMUNITY THAT THE ONLY SOLUTION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IS REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSIONS –IS TODAY BLOCKING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION OF LIQUID FUEL FROM COAL – THE 2005 ENERGY BILL REQUIRES THAT “WELL TO WHEEL” OF CTL IS 20% LESS THAN CRUDE –EFFORTS IN CONGRESS TO UNBLOCK THIS LAW HAVE BEEN STYMIED –IN THE MEANTIME CHINA IS BRINGING CTL PLANTS ONLINE –A RECOGNITION THAT WE CAN USE GEOENGINEERING COULD HELP OUR LIQUID FUEL ENERGY SECURITY USING CTL AS A BRIDGE – ONE MILLION BBL/DAY OF CTL WOULD INCREASE THE WORLD’S CO2 EMISSIONS BY ABOUT 0.4% WITHOUT CO2 SEQUESTRATION! SEE PRESENTATION ON UNITED STATES FUEL CONSUMPTION MODELING SEE PRESENTATION A COHERENT ENERGY POLICY FOR THE UNITED STATES