Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 1 The IPCC Special Report on Renwables and Climate Change Prof.

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Presentation transcript:

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 1 The IPCC Special Report on Renwables and Climate Change Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer Universität Flensburg Former Vice Chair WG III IPCC CISBAT 2011 EPFL, Lausanne, September 14 th -16 th 2011

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 2 Structure of the presentation Who or what is the IPCC? Man-made climate change Energy – the heart of the problem Renewable energy sources – the core of the solution The IPCC Special Report on Renewables Conclusions

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 3 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) UN organization with about 190 member states Founded 1988 as daughter of WMO and UNEP Objective: Regular reports on the latest state of the art in climate science Four subject areas and three working groups 100 – 200 scientists nominated and selected for each report (representing the best in the field and from all world regions) Multiple scientific and government review of each report Consensus decision by the IPCC plenary on each report Accepted basis for international climate policy

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 4 Man-made climate change

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 5 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM, p. 3) Anthropogenic influences on climate change CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 6 Increased global temperature change Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TS p, 37) Warmest 12 years since 1850: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 7 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I TSp.62) Anthropogenic and natural forcings

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 8 Time Left to Act

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 9 Source: IPCC 2007a (WG I, SPM p.14) Projections of future changes in climate

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 10 How much time is left to act? Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 19)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 11 Options for Action

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 12 Contributions to cumulated emission reductions until 2030 and 2100 Source: IPCC 2007 (SPM WG III, p. p17)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 13 Energy The Heart of the Problem

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 14 Global GHG emissions 1970 to 2004 Source: IPCC 2007 (TS WG III, p. 4)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 15 Fossil Fuels – the heart of the problem (The case of Germany) Source: BMU 2003, p. 32 und UBA 2002, p. 31 Share of GHGs in the FRG in 2000: CO 2 : 87% CH4: 6% N2O: 6% HFCS/PFCS: 1% SF6: 0,25% 97% of all CO2 emissions from energy conversion processes! Fossil fuels represent 85% of the problem Total GHG emissions in Mt CO 2 eq. GHG emissions in the FRG in 2000

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 16 Decarbonising the energy system Four options Nuclear energy Clean fossil fuels (CCS) Energy efficiency Renewable energy sources: –direct solar energy –wind energy –biomass –hydro power –geothermal energy –ocean energy

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 17 The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 18 The structure of the SRREN Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 2)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 19 The global potential of renewables Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 8)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 20 The cost of renewables Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 10)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 21 Price development or wind and solar energy Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 12)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 22 GHG emissions of electricity generation Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 17)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 23 The role of renewables for climate protection Source: IPCC 2011 (SPM, SRREN, p. 19)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 24 Renewables and mitigation costs Source: IPCC 2011 (TS, SRREN, p. 146)

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 25 Conclusions Climate change is developing faster than we thought GHG concentrations need to be stabilized at even lower levels (440 ppmvCO 2 ) to avoid serious damages Energy is the heart of the problem Renewable energy sources will be a major part of the solution Renewables can supply far more than the future world energy demand By 2050 they can supply up to 80%

Prof. Dr. Olav Hohmeyer The IPCC Special Report on Renewables and Climate Change Folie 26 Thank you for your attention!