An Update on the Colorado Regional Haze SIP Process and Outcomes Presented at: WRAP – Implementation Work Group San Francisco, CA March 2005

Purpose Present an overview of SIP development process in Colorado with special attention to “what’s next” source category attribution analysis; 2. strategy assessment; and, 3. demonstrating Reasonable Progress

Major Topic Areas Background Summary of current activities/issues Overview of likely technical approach – Using Attribution of Haze and 2018 modeling Questions and discussion

SIP Requirements Section 308 Establish reasonable progress goals for each area (2018) considering: Cost, time, energy/non air impacts, remaining useful life of affected sources Apportionment Identify areas each jurisdiction may affect Identify jurisdiction’s share of emission reduction obligations Control measures Must achieve the jurisdiction’s obligation Must include BART or superior alternative

Regional Haze Background Staff involvement with WRAP Commission opted for 308 over 309 Colorado RH SIP submittal must be approved by Legislature before formal transmittal to EPA

Colorado Regional Haze SIP A Compressed Timeline for Decisions Determine current Levels and presumptive Reasonable progress Colorado’s share of emission reductions including: - BART or superior alternative - Construction and fire - All other sources Regional-scale modeling of base cases for 2002 and 2018 and control scenarios testing Develop SIP Develop TSD SIP Hearings “Official” Submittal SIP date- Dec./Jan Determine state-by-state contributions to Class I areas

SIP Technical Activities Attribution of Haze 2018 Base Case and Control Scenarios

EPA Framework Draft “Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for PM2.5 and Regional Haze”, January 2001 Living document - may be revised as needed and posted on EPA’s website draft_pm.pdf Will finalize guidance as part of PM2.5 implementation rule- 2005?

Regional Haze SIP Modeling The 2018 Base Case will define the amount of additional reductions still needed to meet Reasonable Progress EPA has indicated the Weight of Evidence approach will be used to demonstrate RP goal is met The 2018 control scenarios will establish estimates of number of tons of emissions and deciview improvement needed to meet Reasonable Progress Goal Specific source reductions and how achieved will be a state role

Attribution of Haze Enhancements to Phase I RMC training for states/tribes on AoH methods and tools States/tribes run control scenarios

Used for comparison of TSSA and TRA results Used for comparison of TSSA and TRA results Boundary states (inner circle) Boundary states (inner circle) U.S. regions (outer circle) U.S. regions (outer circle) International (Can., Mex.) International (Can., Mex.) Other (ocean, gulf, boundary conditions, unknown or not able to attribute) Other (ocean, gulf, boundary conditions, unknown or not able to attribute) Source Region Grouping - Example

Rocky Mountain National Park Tagged Species Source Apportionment Apportionment and, Trajectory Regression Analysis

A Class I Areas – A Step-by Step Analysis Needed 1. Click on the COHA Site Assessment link ( 2. Go to the last link at the bottom of the page, Trajectory Regression Results ( s.html) This page will show the attributions in graphical form for all regions, including the 4 quadrants of Colorado. 3. Click on Tabular Regression Results to get a tabular listing of the information ( s_tables.html)

Use AoH information to develop the RH SIP control options 1.Concise definition of the problem for each Class I area in state – identify source categories contributions 2. Use with other tools (modeling, statistical models) make case for reductions and develop strategies 3. Develop draft SIP document to frame issues for policy and planning discussions (see our handout)

Questions…