APNIC Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool – IPv6 deployment The day after!! 8 August 2008 Queenstown, New Zealand In conjunction with APAN Cecil Goldstein, Training Manager

Acknowledgements This presentation includes material and information from Geoff Huston (APNIC Chief Scientist)

IPv4 countdown

Let us imagine that today is the day after!!! 22 December 2011 And...you need IP address space What happens?? What will the Internet look like ? What will you do?

Well, that will depend on what happens between now and 22 Dec 2011

So let us consider then where we are NOW and how we may move to THEN…….

IP Addresses – what makes the internet The Internet IPv4 \IPv6 Allocation Assignment end user * In some cases via an NIR such as KRNIC *

The address infrastructure today 2004: Number Resource Organization

What is APNIC? Regional Internet Registry (RIR) for the Asia Pacific region Responsible for distributing Internet resources throughout the AP region Industry self-regulatory body Consensus-based, open, and transparent decision-making and policy development Meetings and mailing lists Open to anyone – –

RIR policy development process OPEN TRANSPARENT‘BOTTOM UP’ Anyone can participate All decisions and policies documented and freely available to anyone Internet community proposes and approves policy Need DiscussEvaluate Implement Consensus

Global policy coordination NRO APNIC ARIN RIPE NCC LACNIC AfriNIC ASO ICANN The main function of ASO: ASO receives global policies and policy process details from the NRO ASO forwards global policies and policy process details to ICANN board

APNIC address policy

[prop-050] IPv4 address transfers [prop-055] Global policy for the allocation of the remaining IPv4 address space [prop-062] Use of final /8 [prop-063] Reducing timeframe of IPv4 allocations from twelve to six months [prop-066] Ensuring efficient use of historical IPv4 resources Policy proposals for APNIC 26

The growth of the Internet and IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion

IPv4 Address Pool – June % available source: Central Registry RIPE NCC AfriNIC ARIN LACNIC APNIC Other

IPv4 IANA address pool – March % available source: Central Registry RIPE NCC AfriNIC ARIN LACNIC APNIC Other

18 Projected lifetime of remaining IPv4 addresses Current free pool 41 x /8 IANA pool depletition: 1st Half of 2011 RIRs pool depletion: 2nd half of 2011

IPv4 address space issued - RIRs to customers First quarter (to March ) (First Quarter 2008) /8s

IPv4 address consumption prediction Assumptions –Tomorrow is a lot like today –Trends visible in the recent past continue into the future This model assumes that there will be: –no panic –no change in policies –no change in the underlying demand dynamics –no rationing –no withholding or hoarding! No really! Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007

So what will happen after the exhaustion? The Internet will not stop but its growth will be impacted Who will be impacted? –ISPs Sustaining their business models will become more difficult unless you have huge IPv4 address blocks –End users Cost of access to the Internet will increase

Some possible scenarios What will happen after the IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion? –Persist in IPv4 networks using more NATs –Address markets emerging for IPv4 –Routing fragmentation –IPv6 deployment/ transition Ref: IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by Geoff Huston, Sept 2007

Address market ?

IPv6 deployment Issues and concerns

IPv6 current deployment status Not many cases of production networks –Not many business cases –Quite a few research and experimental networks Some statistics to review

26 IPv4 IPv6 ASN IPv6 IPv4 ASN 250,00027, ,000 IPv4 vs IPv6

APNIC IPv6 delegations by year 27 As of this date

Issues Obviously not many production networks deployed –Gap in understanding between front line network engineers and decision makers CEOs and CIOs do not seem interested or aware enough to make investments not making tangible profit Commercial value

Where are we heading? We should look to preserve the functionality and integrity of the Internet as a service platform –Functionality of applications –Viability of routing –Capability to sustain continued growth –Integrity of the network infrastructure

But this is not all…..  We are running into exhaustion of the 16- bit AS Number pool –Estimated exhaustion time: 1200 UTC 1 November 2010 –See

RIRs and 32-bit AS Numbers From 1 January 2007 the RIRs are allocating 32-bit AS numbers (upon specific request) From 1 January 2009 the RIRs will be allocating 32-bit AS numbers by default (leaving some 16-bit AS numbers available upon specific request)

Conclusion Plan Compare Prepare Test Deploy IPv6 is not a new product to sell…..it is a means to sustainability

Thank you!