Using Entity Resolution to Enhance Criminal Network Disruption by Targeting Appropriate Offenders Dr Rick Adderley A E Solutions (BI) Ltd

Typical Crime House Burgled Crime Reported Command & Control System Updated Crime Recording System System Updated Forensic Recording System System Updated Officer Attends the Crime Scene CSI Attends the Crime Scene

Typical Crime Stop & Search System System Updated Intelligence System System Updated Stop & Search NIM T&C Gathering Intelligence

Typical Crime Custody System System Updated Crime Nominals System System Updated Offender Arrested Crime Solved

Linking Data Custody System Crime Nominals System Stop & Search System Intelligence System Command & Control Crime Recording System Forensic Recording System Person Reference Number Crime Number

Typical Crime URNSurnameForenameDOBAddress TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/ High Street GH734569/11SmytheBilly12/04/ High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly04/12/ High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/ High Street ZZ765833/10SmithBilly12/04/ High Street All Names and Data are Synthetic

Ref. Nos Entity Resolution Gold Standard Crime Recording System 1002 Crimes for Analysis Crime Nominals System Names Addresses Dates of Birth Offences Crime Info

Gold Standard Set IDRef NumSurnameForenameDOB CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOF25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOVR25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : MCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : KCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : CCHASSMILKOV25/03/ : QCHASSMILKOV18/03/ : QCHASSMILKOV18/03/ : DCHASSMILKOV15/09/ : YCHASSMENKOV31/01/ : QCHASSMENKOV27/08/ : WCHASMENKOV25/03/ : WCHASSMENKOV25/03/ : LCHASSMENKOV16/04/ : LCHASSMENKOV16/04/ : LCHASSMENKOV16/04/ : JCHASSMENKOFF16/04/ :00

Entity Resolution URNSurnameForenameDOBAddress TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/ High Street GH734569/11SmytheBilly12/04/ High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly04/12/ High Street TY123456/09SmithBilly12/04/ High Street ZZ765833/10SmithBilly12/04/ High Street Crime Nominals System Data Extract List of Fields

Entity Resolution

Fields Relevance Probability Analysis Compared with Gold Standard

Entity Resolution Nominal_RefSurnameForenameDOBEntityIDEntityNameAESResultIDAESType NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec Offender6M NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec Offender6M NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec Offender6M XXTOLZMANNNONA03-Dec /05Intel6P 52ATOLZMANNNONA02-Dec-83DE1/8377/05S&S6P NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec /05Intel6M NTOLZMANNNONA02-Dec /05Intel6M Different Police Systems

Criminal Networks 1 st Degree

Criminal Networks 2 nd Degree

Criminal Networks 2 nd Degree – Different Target

Actual Results Organised Crime Group

Identifying Relevant Criminal Networks

Why 2 Degrees of Freedom?

Sample Network Who Do We Target ?

Identifying Offenders to Target

Creating Crime Sets Crime Super Set

Normalised Crime Score SurnameForenameDOBOffender Roles Normalised Crime Score ROMINGERPALMIRA28/02/ :00Burglary SCHEBELCATHERN16/10/ :00Burglary SIBBETTMELITA05/12/ :00Burglary 9.95 CAPASSOBELLA17/12/ :00Burglary 4.07 MOLDREMVERNITA12/08/ :00Burglary 4.41 PINICKTOYA07/05/ :00Violence 4.07 TOLZMANNNONA02/12/ :00Violence 4.16 MEHLINGARIE23/12/ :00Violence 4.16 VALASQUEZCAITLIN10/06/ :00Violence 4.07 ARMELKEMBERLY29/12/ :00Violence 4.07 Frequency of crime > 50% Single Type is main Role

SNA Scoring Betweenness – labelled as a gatekeeper / information control Top 10% An information controller Score = 3 11%-20%Some involvement Score = 2 OthersNo involvementScore = 1 Closeness – best access to other parts of the network Top 10%Best accessScore = 3 11%-20%Average accessScore = 2 OthersLimited accessScore = 1 Degree – most active based on the number of links Top 10%ActiveScore = 3 11%-20%Fairly activeScore = 2 OthersNot activeScore = 1

Distance to Crime Euclidian Distance Merging that distance in miles with the main offences that the offenders commit and assessing the average and standard deviations for every crime committed by an offender the following labelling was applied: The average distance <= Standard deviation *2 Compact Offending Area Score = 3 The average distance >= Standard deviation *3 Wide Offending Area Score = 2 All others Average Offending Area Score = 1

Offenders to Target SurnameForenameRoleNormalised Score Informan t Score Access Score Criminal Activity Score Travel Score Final Score Final Normalised Score SCHEBELCATHERNBurglary ROMINGERPALMIRABurglary SIBBETTMELITABurglary FEDELEMARTINBurglary DOMENECHINOCENCIABurglary GILLINGHAMBRINDAViolence MEMOSDENICEVehCrime ROSENBALMBRITNIVehCrime URENMURIELViolence KRIEGINGRIDVehCrime WOODLEARNITABurglary CROSSENBERNADINEBurglary HOCKENBURYPANDORAVehCrime DELEEUWSTEPHANIEBurglary

Disrupted Network Original Network

Questions ? Dr Rick Adderley