Aviation Market in Transition Director Marketing Vladimir Kamynin

INVESTIGATED FACTORS The main forecast factors: GDP Jet fuel price The factor of limitedness of labour resources Investigated factors for the market of the Russian Federation: GDP Jet fuel price Real income of population Investments into main production. Factors rendering essential/critical influence: Global incidents and threats (atypical pneumonia (SARS)), bird flue (H5N1), pork flue (A/H1N1),earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunami) Aviation accidents (catastrophes and acts of terrorism)

The Russian Federation Dynamics of the basic macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation Source: ROSSTAT Source: MER Crisis -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Real GDP Real income of population Investments into fixed capital

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates in the Russian Federation from GDP* The Russian Federation * - here and further the forecast of a passenger traffic volume in 2009 by marketing group of the airport Domodedovo. High sensitivity of a passenger traffic volume to GDP chages in the Russian Federation The average change of GDP on the Russian market is 2,0 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Passenger traffic in the Russian Federation GDP

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates in the Russian Federation from GDP (enlarged scale) The Russian Federation I период снижения II период снижения I decrease period :I decrease period : Decrease in growth rates GDP Sharp rise in fuel prices - on the average by 60 % in the Russian Federation II decrease period :II decrease period : Снижение темпов роста ВВП Резкое удорожание топлива – в среднем на 50% по РФ 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Passenger traffic in the Russian Federation GDP

Dependence of passenger traffic growth rates on the fuel price The Russian Federation There is an inverse dependence of market growth rate on fuel price changes -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Passenger traffic in the Russian Federation Fuel price

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on GDP Moscow Aviation Note Market of Moscow Aviation Node is more stable to GDP than the Russian Federation market. Market of Moscow Aviation Node in long-run period increases of GDP up to 1,8 coefficient which conforms to ICAO methods (competitive market) -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% MOW passenger flow GDP Russian passenger traffic

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note in internal air lines and international air lines market segments on GDP. Moscow Aviation Note Regular international market of Moscow Aviation Note is more dynamically develops in the period of development and is more stable to the crisis than the market of Russian Federation. -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Passenger traffic on internal air lines of Moscow Aviation Note GDP MOW International passenger traffic

Dynamics of passenger traffic volume of the Moscow Aviation Note in the various market segments, I half-year of 2009, % During the period of crisis the most stable market segment is passenger transfer on Far Abroad and CIS (international air-line’s regular market) Moscow Aviation Note -2% -16% -2% -18% -20% -18% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Far Abroad (other)Internal Air linesCISTravel market

Distribution of passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note on regular international air lines between foreign and Russian air companies. Moscow Aviation Note

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note in travel flights on GDP Moscow Aviation Note During the economic growth the travel market of Moscow Aviation Note is stably increasing with the average coefficient 1,8 of GDP. At the same time during the crisis it decreases faster than other market segments, decrease of rates are bigger than the decrease of GDP. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Travel stream of Moscow Aviation Note GDP

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on GDP during the crisis period. Moscow Aviation Note Инерционный период Восстановительный период Шоковый период -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note GDP Delayed-action period Shock period Recovery period

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume between regions in the Russian Federation on GDP Moscow Aviation Note Market of passenger transfer between regions in the Russian Federation is unstable in comparison with Moscow Aviation Note. -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Passenger transfer between regions in the Russian Federation without Moscow Aviation Note. GDP MOW passenger flow

Change of growth rates of real earnings of the population makes the greatest impact on growth rates of passenger traffic volume on a tourist market segment. Moscow Aviation Note -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Travel stream of Moscow Aviation Note Real earnings of the population

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note on real earnings of population in the crisis period Direct influence of growth rates of incomes of the population on a passenger traffic volume of Moscow Aviation Note Moscow Aviation Note -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Passenger traffic of Moscow Aviation Note Real earnings of the population

Dependence of growth rates of passenger traffic volume of the Russian Federation on investments into fixed capital The Russian Federation -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Passenger traffic of the Russian Federation Investments into fixed capital

Growth rates of passenger traffic volume for the direction to Krasnodar – Moscow Aviation Note The choice of International Olympic Committee Sochi as a capital of the winter Olympic Games. Krasnodar – business capital of land. Moscow Aviation Note Krasnodar MOW

The Russian Federation Dynamics of the basic macroeconomic indicators and passenger traffic of the Russian Federation -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Passenger traffic of the Russian Federation Household income Fixed capital investment GDP

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