Indonesian Elections Dr Greg Fealy ANU

Parties and Platforms  38 parties contesting legislative election  Categorising them is difficult –Often classified according to religion or ideology (eg, nationalist, Christian, Islamic) but boundaries between these categories are blurred –Growing centrism in Indonesian politics resulting in part from increasing use of polling and national media  Lots of parties blend religious and ideological messages –Many parties are largely personal vehicles for wealth and powerful politicians

‘Nationalist’ Parties  PD (Democrat Party) was created as electoral vehicle for SBY –Chaired by son-in-law and SBY’s wife dominant figure –Many members drawn from military and bureaucratic backgrounds –7% of vote in 2004 –Recent polls have PD as high as mid-20% –No real ideological coherence to party

‘Nationalist’ Parties  PDI-P (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) –Megawati is chair and presidential nominee –19% in 2004; 34% in 1999 –Main opposition party since 2004 and prospered in polls because of that –Polls range from about % –Mega both plus and minus

‘Nationalist’ Parties  Golkar –Former regime party of Soeharto but remade itself since 1998 –Led by vice-president Yusuf Kalla –22% of vote in 1999 and 2004 –Most experienced and hard-headed party machine in Indonesia –Polling suggests b/w % of vote

‘Nationalist’ Parties  Hanura party of ex-General Wiranto  Gerindra party of former General and Soeharto son-in-law Prabowo Subianto  Both parties draw heavily on leaders’ former army networks and are lavishly funded –Prabowo set new standards for political advertising on TV  Both parties have good chance of clearing threshold but probably below 5%

Islamic Parties  Two types: ‘pluralist’ and Islamist  Pluralist Islamic parties rely on support of mainstream Islamic organisations and use Islamic symbols but do not promote sharia agendas –Formal ideological basis is Pancasila, not Islam  Islamist parties have more ideological Islamic agenda, including support for sharia implementation –Often more exclusivist in orientation

Pluralist Islamic parties  PKB (National Awakening Party) founded by Abdurrahman Wahid (Gus Dur) and based on Nahdlatul Ulama community –12% of vote in 1999; 11% in 2004 –Constant leadership ructions; Gus Dur now estranged from party –Will continue to be a major party

Pluralist Islamic Parties  PAN (National Mandate Party) founded by Amien Rais and based on Muhammadiyah community –7% of vote in 1999; 6% in 2004 –Now led by ineffectual Soetrisno Bachir –Plummeting support despite massive funding by Bachir

Islamist Parties  PPP (United Development Party) based on both NU and Muhammadiyah communities –Currently led by Cooperatives Minister Suryadharma Ali –11% in 1999; 8% in 2004 –Demoralised party with lacklustre leadership; falling support  PBB (Crescent Star Party) led by Forestry Minister MS Kaban –About 2% in previous elections but party in decline

Islamist Parties  PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) is most interesting of Islamist parties –Muslim Brotherhood inspired and only genuine cadre party in Indonesia –1% of vote in 1999; 7% in 2004 –Best organised of Islamic parties and aiming at 15-20% in 2009 –Likely to gain above 10%

Grim Islamic Party Prospects  Nearly all respected public opinion surveys over last two years have suggested declining support for Islamic parties –PKB: 4-7% –PPP: 3-5% –PAN: 3-5% –PKS: 4-8% –PBB: 1-2%  Three factors: low public support for formal sharia- isation (below 22%); internal ructions; poor leadership

Dynasties?

Presidential Elections  Importance of the 20%-25% thresholds for nominating candidates –Limits tickets to 2 or 3 –Possibility of only one pair of candidates  All parties waiting for legislative election results before finalising tickets –Highly fluid situation; few parties willing to commit themselves at this stage

SBY  SBY is clear front-runner –Approval ratings above 50% and some polls have him with double the support of his nearest challenger –Seen as safe, steady, clean and decent, if a little boring and indecisive –Reasonable economic results and success of anti-poverty schemes have been key to his continuing popularity –Running mate still undecided

Megawati  In mid-2008, several polls had Mega in front of SBY but has now fallen well behind again –Has good political strategists but she continually fluffs attempts to remake her image –Poor campaigner; often berates voters for not electing her in 2004 –Not a good coalition builder  Has courted Sultan of Yogyakarta as possible running mate