R ATIONAL A CTION T HEORY Q UANTITATIVE A NALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE D ATA SETS RAT AND QAD, ARE THEY MARRIED BY NOW OR STILL SINGLES? ?

THE BRIEF ANSWER: RAT AND QAD STILL HAVE NOT TIED THE KNOT AND ACTUALLY, RAT NOW IS CALLING QAD NAMES THE INVENTED INVECTIVE: VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY

WOUT ULTEE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN THE NETHERLANDS ICS 20 th ANNIVERSARY GRONINGEN NOVEMBER 11, 2006

SEQUENCE IN MY PRESENTATION * DID RAT INVENT A SCAPEGOAT? * DOES RAT OFFER A SOUND EXEMPLAR? * DOES RAT HAVE ENOUGH PUZZLES? * HOW DOES RAT DEAL WITH CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS? * RAT AND ONE- OR MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES? * RAT: ONLY MARKETS OR MORE INSTITUTIONS? * RAT: INDIVIDUALS WHO ACT LOGICALLY OR INDIVIDUALS WHO THINK IN ANALOGIES? IS RAT A STUMBLING PARADIGM?

RAT HAS QAD AS A SCAPEGOAT AND THE BÊTE NOIRE IS DUNCAN’S PATH MODEL OF THE SOCIO- ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE BOUDON CURSED DUNCAN’S MODEL AS VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY, THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION WAS APPLIED AGAIN TO DUNCAN’S MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM AND IS NOWAPPLIED GENERALLY BY ESSER

BLAU & DUNCAN, THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE, 1967, p. 170 THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH PERTAINS TO THE USA IN 1962 SURELY, FIVE INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES DOTS REFER TO CONCEPTS, ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS

MISSING COEFFI- CIENTS DUNCAN’S INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR FOUR AGE GROUPS

DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO INDUSTRY WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATION AND STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION

TO BRING QAD INTO THE BOAT OF RAT, RAT OFFERS AN EXEMPLAR TO QAD: COLEMAN’S BOAT

COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, P. 6: ‘THE MAJOR PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A LEVEL BELOW THAT OF THE SYSTEM IS THAT OF MOVING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE SYSTEM LEVEL’ NOTE: NOT MOVING FROM THE HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL

THE SOLUTION: COLEMAN’S BOAT TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM 2005, p. 115

SOCIETAL EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITY SOCIETAL INCOME INEQUALITY INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION INDIVIDUAL INCOME COLEMAN’S BOAT APPLIED TO THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE Coleman, ‘Microfoundations and macrosocial behavior’, 1987

THIS COLEMAN BOAT IS NOT SEAWORTHY THE BOTTOM OF COLEMAN’S BOAT IS ALSO ITS ROOF THE BEST BOAT IS A RAFT

DUNCAN’S RELATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND INCOME IS NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL RELATION IT IS ALSO A MACRO PROPERTY: IT REFERS TO THE USA IN 1962 AND IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY: IT CAN BE COMPUTED FOR OTHER PLACES AND TIMES

INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1973 INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1973 ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1962 INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1962 INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 1993 INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 1993 INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 2003 INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 2003

OCCUPATION FATHER OCCUPATION SON INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO REPRESENT THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE THIRD GENERATION OF MOBILITY STUDIES THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE MACROQUESTIONS ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY

RAT IS A PARADIGM ALTERNATIVE TO QAD, BUT WITHOUT A GESTALT SWITCH ONE ERROR OF COLEMAN’S BOAT IS THAT IT DRAWS LINES FOR EFFECTS BETWEEN CONCEPTS, INSTEAD OF LINES FOR DERIVABILITY BETWEEN FALSIFIABLE PROPOSITIONS THE OTHER ERROR IS THE GOAL OF MOVING FROM MICRO TO MACRO IT IS EASIER TO MOVE FROM MACRO TO MICRO AND STARTING WITH MACROPROBLEMS DOES THE TRICK

RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A PARADIGM LARGELY WITHOUT PUZZLES, AND EVEN MORE SO PUZZLES ABOUT SOCIETIES GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AN EMPIRICAL REGULARITY, WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE GOLDTHORPE, ON SOCIOLOGY, 2000

ALSO, ANY GOOD THEORY EXPLAINS A HOST OF EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES UNTIL NOW RAT DOES NOT DO SO RATHER, RAT OFFERS SEVERAL EXPLANATIONS FOR ONE REGULARITY THAT IS TOPSYTURVYDOM

THESE TO-BE-EXPLAINED EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES SHOULD PERTAIN TO SOCIETIES IF THE REGULARITIES PERTAIN TO INDIVIDUALS ONLY, THEY FALL OUTSIDE THE SCOPE OF SOCIOLOGY’S QUESTIONS

PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES PUZZLES ARE ANCHORS FOR COLEMAN’S BOAT MACROPUZZLES MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE FROM MACRO- TO MICROTHEORIES THE HEAVIEST ANCHORS ARE MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES

CRIMINOLOGISTS ARE LESS CRIMINAL THAN THE REST, SO HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE CRIMINOLOGISTS IN A COUNTRY GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME? DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHY-WASHY ADVICE INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT FIRST- OFFENDERS BECOME RECIDIVISTS?

DO NOT THROW OUT MICRO-MACRO PARADOXES AS ‘ECOLOGICAL FALLACIES’ OR ‘AGGREGATIVE FALLACIES’ THINK UP HYPOTHESES ABOUT CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS Robinson, ‘Ecological correlations and behavior of individuals’, 1950

MACRO-X MACRO-Y MICRO-XMICRO-Y CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND THE COLEMAN BOAT COLEMAN’S BOAT DOES NOT NEED REINFORCEMENT OF THE HULL COLEMAN’S BOAT NEEDS ANCHORS, SAILS AND PEDALS FOR THE RAFT

SOME PARADIGMS IN SOCIOLOGY COMPRISE, APART FROM A HOST OF EXPLAINED REGULARITIES, ONE HIGHER-LEVEL AXIOM AND SEVERAL LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES LENSKI CALLS THEM MULTI- LAYERED THEORIES Lenski, ‘Rethinking macrosociological theory’, 1988

TWO EXAMPLES OF MULTI- LAYERED THEORIES IN SOCIOLOGY OUTSIDE RAT: LENSKI-NOLAN ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM THE DURKHEIM- LAZARSFELD-HIRSCHI INTEGRATION HYPOTHESIS

RAT MAY BECOME MULTI- LAYERED, BUT RIGHT NOW IT OFTEN IS NOT RAT’S QUEST FOR MECHANISMS SIDETRACKS DIJKSTERHUIS, MECHANIZATION OF THE WORLD PICTURE, 1950, compare HEDSTRÖM AND SWEDBORG, SOCIAL MECHANISMS, 1998, p. 2, n. 4

A HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS CORRECTS A LOWER- LEVEL HYPOTHESIS RAT DOES NOT ALWAYS APPRECIATE THIS Popper, ‘The aim of science’, 1957, p. 32 compare HEDSTRÖM, PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY, p. 31, law-covering explanations do not allow of exceptions, explanations by mechanisms do allow exceptions

MOVING FROM A LOWER- LEVEL HYPOTHESIS TO A HIGHER-LEVEL HYPOTHESIS AMOUNTS TO RE- INTERPRETING AN INHERENT PROPERTY AS A RELATIONAL PROPERTY Popper, ‘Aim of science’, 1957, p. 29

HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND MAKE MULTI- LAYERED THEORIES? DISTINGUISH TYPES OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES AND SPELL OUT A THEORY COMPRISING HIGHER- AND LOWER-LEVEL HYPOTHESES AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS

WHICH AXIOMS AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES THE RAT PARADIGM HAVE? BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE FAMILY, 1981, p. viii ‘THIS VOLUME USES THE ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING BEHAVIOR, STABLE PREFERENCES, AND EQUILIBRIUM IN IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT MARKETS’

BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM THAT INDIVIDUALS ARE RATIONAL AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT THEY ACT ON MARKETS HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS

RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A MISNOMER THE PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY THIS IS NOW RECOGNIZED IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION ALBERT, MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK, 1967 Iannaccone, ‘Voodoo economics?’, 1995, p. 76: ‘… a[n] … application of rational choice [theory] - the religious market alternative to secularization theory - …’

HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY? RAT IS IN NEED OF A THEORY OF SOCIETY WHICH GOES BEYOND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT MARKETS ARE THE ONLY INSTITUTION COORDINATING HUMAN ACTION

HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL GOODS: * MARKETSHUNGER AVERSION * HIERARCHIESPAIN AVERSION * COMMUNITIESDERISION AVERSION FREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY PHILOSOPHERS, 1953

SO, APART FROM MARKET SOCIOLOGY THERE IS ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND CULTURAL SOCIOLOGY THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN RATIONAL ACTION AND NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR IS FALSE

VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF COLLECTIVE GOODS BY SOCIETAL POLITIES: * WISE BENEVOLENT DICTATOR * TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS * A POPULATION MAKING UNANIMOUS DECISIONS * MAJORITY DECISIONS VAN DEN DOEL, DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE ECONOMICS, 1978

BLAU AND THE PRODUCTION OF SOCIAL RELATIONS (MARRIAGES, CRIMES) BY PREFERENCES AND OPPORTUNITIES * SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS ON ONE PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE * MOBILITY IN TIME ALONG ONE PARAMETER OF SOCIAL STRCUTRE * CROSS-CUTTING PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE * CONCENTRIC CIRCLES OF PARAMETERS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE BLAU, CROSSCUTTING SOCIAL CIRCLES, 1984

IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO OUTCOMES: MARKETS: OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR COMPETITIVE EXCESSES? HIERARCHIES: CRIME-FREE STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC PATCHWORK? COMMUNITIES: SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH SECRETE VICES? ELIAS, UEBER DEN PROZESS DER ZIVILISATION, 1939 LIPSKY, STREET LEVEL BUREAUCRACY, 1980

THUS RUNS MY RESURRECTION OF THE RAT PARADIGM BY WAY OF BETTER AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS IT IS POSSIBLE TO GO BEYOND THE RAT AXIOM THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY?

COMPARE HEDSTRÖM, DISSECTING THE SOCIAL, ON THE PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY, 2005 WITH LENSKI, ECOLOGICAL- EVOLUTIONARY THEORY, PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS, 2005

HEDSTRÖM DISCUSSES THE PRINCIPLES OF ANALYTICAL SOCIOLOGY WITHOUT ALWAYS STATING THEM CLEARLY LENSKI ENUMERATES THE PRINCIPLES OF ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM BEFORE APPLYING THEM HEDSTRÖM HAS ONE EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, LENSKI FOUR

ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM CONTAINS THE ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY, AND IS MUCH RICHER IN AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS AND MACRO-EFFECTS

HOW TO IMPROVE ECOLOGICAL EVOLUTIONISM? ARE THERE ALTERNATIVES TO THE AXIOM THAT PERSONS ACT RATIONALLY?

THE FIRST ALTERNATIVE AXIOM HOW DO PERSONS MAKE COGNITIONS COHERENT? THEY CHANGE COGNITIONS BUT MAINTAIN THEIR WORLDVIEW ACTIONS OF INDIVIDUALS ARE ADEQUATE TO THEIR WORLDVIEW Weber, ‘Protestantische Ethik’, 1905; cf. Webbink & Ultee, ‘Orthodox Protestantism and vaccination in the Netherlands: unorthodox questions about modernization, markets, and secularization’, forthcoming

TO ANSWER MACRO QUESTIONS, APART FROM A THEORY OF INDIVIDUAL ACTION, A THEORY IS NEEDED ABOUT INDIVIDUAL THINKING PEOPLE DO ALWAYS NOT THINK LOGICALLY THEY OFTEN THINK IN ANALOGIES

THE SECOND ALTERNATIVE AXIOM HUMAN BEINGS FIRST THINK IN ANALOGIES, THEN LOGICALLY EVOLUTIONARY PSYCHOLOGIST PINKER, THE BLANK SLATE, 2002, AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGIST DAWKINS, THE GOD DELUSION, 2006 THREE TYPES OF ANALOGIES: BIOMORPHIC MODELS SOCIOMORPHIC MODELS TECHNOMORPHIC MODELS TOPITSCH, VOM URSPRUNG UND ENDE DER METAPHYSIK, 1958

LENSKITOPITSCH TYPE OFTHOUGHT SOCIETYMODEL HUNTING AND GATHERINGBIOMORPHIC SIMPLE HORTICULTUREBIOMORPHIC ADVANCED HORTICULTURE TECHNOMORPHIC AGRARIANSOCIOMORPHIC EARLY INDUSTRIALMACHINES LATER INDUSTRIALCOMPUTERS Moor, Ultee & Need, ‘Analogies, subsistence technologies, and (non)moral supreme creator gods’ forthcoming

IN THIS WAY AN EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY ARISES, SURPASSING RATIONAL CHOICE ECONOMICS AND BOUNDED RATIONALITY PSYCHOLOGY

DID I ‘SINK THE COLEMAN’? COLEMAN’S BOAT WAS ALREADY MAKING WATER BUT DID I PRESENT AN AIRWORTHY PLANE? RAT-QAD VERSUS EVOLUTIONARY SOCIOLOGY AS A FUTURE THEME!