1. IF COLEMAN’S BOAT MAKES WATER, WHAT WILL KEEP SOCIOLOGY AFLOAT? PRESENTATION AT THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY OTTO-FRIEDRICH-UNIVERSITÄT BAMBERG NOVEMBER 13, 2007 WOUT ULTEE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIOLOGY RADBOUD UNIVERSITY NIJMEGEN posted at http://www.socsci.ru.nl/maw/sociologie/ultee/

2. AT FIRST SIGHT THROUGHOUT SOCIOLOGY’S HISTORY THE GERMAN INPUT TO INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGY HAS HINDERED PROGRESS IN THAT DISCIPLINE MARXIST DOGMATISM UNDIGESTABLE MAX WEBER THE POSITIVISMUSSTREIT FROM 1961 TO 1969 LUHMANN’S PHENOMENOLOGICAL FUNCTIONALISM WEBER EXEGESIS BECK’S RISK SOCIETY

3. UPON CLOSER INSPECTION IN THE PAST DECADES SOMETHING EMERGED THAT MIGHT BE CALLED EUROPEAN RIGOROUS SOCIOLOGY AND THAT HAPPENED BECAUSE OF BENEFICIAL GERMAN INFLUENCES

4. THIS HAPPENED FIRST BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY FROM THE VOLKSWAGENSTIFTUNG ERKISON & GOLDTHORPE’S 1992 THE CONSTANT FLUX SET THE EXAMPLE FOR BREEN’S 2004 SOCIAL MOBILITY IN EUROPE

5. THIS HAPPENED SECOND BECAUSE OF GERMAN MONEY FOR A SONDERFORSCHUNGSBEREICH IT PITTED THE PANEL OF THE ECONOMIST HAUSER AGAINST THE RETROSPECTIVE DATA OF THE SOCIOLOGIST MAYER AND THAT BATTLE, AT LEAST INITIALLY IN 1989, WAS WON BY THAT GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST MAYER SHOWED THE WAY TOWARDS THE COLLECTION OF RETROSPECTIVE LIFE-COURSE DATA FOR OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

6. THIS HAPPENED THIRD BECAUSE OF A JOURNAL CALLED THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW FOUNDED IN 1985 AND EDITED FOR YEARS NOW BY THE GERMAN SOCIOLOGIST BLOSSFELD WITH THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW OVERTAKING THE AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

8. TODAY I WOULD LIKE TO ADDRESS THE TOPIC OF HOW EUROPEAN RIGOROUS SOCIOLOGY MIGHT BECOME MORE CUMULATIVE

9. WHY IS CUMULATION DESIRABLE? FIRST EVERY ARTICLE IN THE EUROPEAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW TAKEN ON ITS OWN MAY BE GOOD BUT SOCIOLOGY AS A WHOLE MAY STILL DISPLAY A LOT OF STAGNATION AND LITTLE PROGRESS

10. WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE? SECOND THE BRIDGE BETWEEN THEORY AND RESEARCH REMAINS UNFINISHED RATIONAL ACTION THEORY (RAT) AND THE QUANTATIVE ANALYSIS OF LARGE-SCALE DATA SETS (QAD) SINCE 1998 HAVE NOT TIED THE KNOT RAT IS CALLING QAD NAMES: VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY WITH DUNCAN’S 1967 MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC LIFE CYCLE AS THE SCAPEGOAT

11. WHY IS MORE CUMULATION DESIRABLE? THIRD THE LESSON I DRAW FROM PARTICIPATION IN THE DUTCH GRADUATE SCHOOL ICS IS THAT RAT COMES TOO CLOSE TO ECONOMICS, MATHEMATICS AND PSYCHOLOGY AND TOO DISTANT FROM SOCIOLOGY’S QUESTIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES

12. HOW TO OBTAIN MORE CUMULATION? THE AGE-OLD DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY: THE SCANDAL OF THE GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND RESEARCH THE OLD REMEDY: THEORY-GUIDED RESEARCH WITH A THEORY, SAY RAT, YIELDING TESTABLE HYPOTHESES, AND RESEARCH, SAY QAD, AS TESTING THESE HYPOTHESES

13. MY DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY FIRST THE NON-RELATION IN SOCIOLOGY BETWEEN GENERAL HYPOTHESES AND SPECIFIC HYPOTHESES NEW REMEDY: BUILD MULTI-LAYERED THEORIES CONSISTING OF MORE GENERAL AND LESS GENERAL HYPOTHESES DERIVE MACRO PROPOSITIONS FROM MICRO PROPOSITIONS BY USING COLEMAN’S BOAT AS A CONJUGATION SCHEME

14. MY DIAGNOSIS OF WHAT ELSE IS WRONG WITH SOCIOLOGY SECOND THE NON-RELATION BETWEEN SOCIOLOGY’S MANY QUESTIONS NEW REMEDIES: TAKE PRESENT-DAY SMALL DOABLE QUESTIONS AS SUB-QUESTIONS OF LONG-STANDING CENTRAL QUESTIONS DEVISE STRINGS OF DEEPER AND DEEPER QUESTIONS

15. QUESTION-DRIVEN THEORIZING RATIONAL CHOICE EXPLANATIONS AND EXPLANATIONS OF ANY OTHER TYPE SHOULD NOT ENGAGE IN CHERRY PICKING CONTEMPORARY EXPLANATIONS SHOULD TAKE UP AND IMPROVE AND SOMETIMES RECAST SOCIOLOGY’S CLASSICAL QUESTIONS BUT NEVER DISMISS THEM

16. THREE CLASSICAL PROBLEM SHIFTS AND PROBLEM STRUCTURES IN SOCIOLOGY ORDER AND VIOLENCE COHESION SOCIAL ISOLATION SUICIDE INEQUALITY MOBILITY RELATIVE MOBILITY RELATIVE HETEROGAMY WEALTH OF NATIONS RATIONALIZATION BUREAUCRATIZATION DISENCHANTMENT REFINEMENT OF MANNERS SECULARIZATION

17. WHAT I AM GOING TO SAY IS THAT COLEMAN’S BOAT HAS BEEN TAKEN IN THE NETHERLANDS AS SEAWORTHY WHILE I TAKE IT AS A RAFT THAT SEEKS TO MOVE WITHOUT MASTS AND SAILS AND WITHOUT AN ANCHOR COLEMAN IS TOO NEGATIVE ABOUT THE QUESTIONS, THEORIES AND RESEARCH TECHNIQUES OF CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY

19. RESEARCH FINDINGS MAY NOT ONLY TEST THEORIES THEY ALSO MAY PROVOKE EXPLANATIONS AN EXAMPLE FROM CLASSICAL SOCIOLOGY IS WEBER’S TABLE THAT AROUND 1900 IN GERMAN STATES WITH A RELGIOUSLY MIXED POPULATION PROTESTANTS ARE OVERREPRESENTED AMONG THE BUSINESS OWNERS AND SKILLED WORKERS AND CHILDREN OF PROTESTANTS AMONG THE VISITORS OF COMMERCIALLY AND TECHNICALLY ORIENTED SECONDARY SCHOOLS BUT DO ALL TABLES YIELD PUZZLING FINDINGS? PUZZLES ARE THE THING TO GO AFTER!

20. RAT UNTIL NOW HAS BEEN A PARADIGM LARGELY WITHOUT PUZZLES AND EVEN MORE SO WITHOUT PUZZLES ABOUT SOCIETIES GOLDTHORPIAN RAT SEEKS TO EXPLAIN AN EMPIRICAL REGULARITY WHICH IS NOT MUCH OF A PUZZLE

21. WHAT IS PUZZLING ABOUT THE FINDING FOR ALL INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES THAT CHILDREN FROM UPPER-CLASS PARENTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OPT FOR AND ATTAIN HIGHER LEVELS OF SCHOOLING EVEN AFTER TAKING INTELLIGENCE INTO ACCOUNT?

22. A PUZZLE WOULD BE: WHY DOESN’T IN COUNTRIES WITH A SYSTEM OF STIPENDS FOR LOWER - CLASS CHILDREN THE TIE BETWEEN CLASS OF ORIGIN AND LEVEL OF EDUCATION WEAKEN ? BUT THERE IS NO SUCH PUZZLE SINCE EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITIES ARE DECREASING IN MOST INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES !

23. THERE IS NOTHING PUZZLING ABOUT THE FINDING THAT IN ALL EU-COUNTRIES UNEMPLOYMENT COMES IN COUPLES BUT WHY DOES UNEMPLOYMENT STILL COME IN COUPLES AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EDUCATIONAL AND AGE HOMOGAMY ? THAT IS A PUZZLE !

24. MORE PUZZLES 1 WHY ARE IN ALL INDUSTRIAL SOCIETIES PEOPLE WITH MORE SCHOOLING LESS LIKELY TO BE UNEMPLOYED? BECAUSE THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO BE FIRED OR BECAUSE THEY ARE MORE LIKELY TO FIND A NEW JOB AFTER FIRING? SURELY, IF ENTERPRISES CLOSE PERSONS WITH MORE SCHOOLING ARE AS LIKELY TO BE FIRED AS PERSONS WITH LESS SCHOOLING!

25. MORE PUZZLES 2 AND 3 HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT IN THE NETHERLANDS IN THE 1960S THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS ROSE WHILE CATHOLICS LEFT CHURCH IN THRONGS? HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RIGHT NOW WORLDWIDE THE PERCENT OF RELIGIOUS PERSONS GROWS AND IN EACH COUNTRY THE PERCENT OF RELIGIOUS PERSONS STAYS STABLE OR FALLS? DO CHURCHES GROW BECAUSE OF HIGHER FERTITLITY OR BECAUSE OF SWITCHING?

26. PUZZLE 4 WHY DO MORE LIBERAL ABORTION LAWS IN A COUNTRY NOT ALWAYS MAKE FOR MORE ABORTIONS?

27. PUZZLE 5 HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT COUNTRIES WHERE PERSONS HAVE THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF SEXUAL PARTNERS ALSO HAVE THE LOWEST INCIDENCE OF SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED INFECTIONS AND UNPLANNED PREGNANCIES?

28. PUZZLE 6 NOT ABOUT SOCIETIES BUT ABOUT THE WORLD AND ITS STATES HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT RIGHT NOW WORLD INCOME INEQUALITY DECREASES WHILE INCOME INEQUALITY IN EVERY COUNTRY INCREASES?

29. PUZZLE 7 ABOUT SOCIETIES AND INDIVIDUALS HOW IS IT POSSIBLE THAT MORE CRIMINOLOGISTS IN A COUNTRY GOES HAND IN HAND WITH MORE CRIME? CRIMINOLOGISTS ARE MORE CRIMINAL THAN THE REST? DO CRIMINOLOGISTS THROUGH WISHY- WASHY ADVICE INCREASE THE CHANCES THAT FIRST-OFFENDERS BECOME RECIDIVISTS?

31. COLEMAN 1987 DISMISSES DURKHEIM’S QUESTIONS ABOUT SUICIDE AS SOCIOLOGICAL PUZZLES SUICIDE IS AN INDIVIDUAL PHENOMENON DURKHEIM AT BEST BRINGS IN SOCIAL PHENOMENA AS EXPLANATORY FACTORS HOWEVER FOR DURKHEIM A HIGHER SUICIDE RATE INDICATES LIMITED SOCIETAL COHESION AND ALL OF DURKHEIM’S WORK WAS CONCERNED WITH SPECIFIC COHESION QUESTIONS

32. SOCIETAL COHESION OR THE TIES BETWEEN THE MEMBERS OF A SOCIETY ECONOMIC TIES THROUGH THE DIVISION OF LABOUR 1885 SEVERING THE LAST TIE TO SOCIETY THROUGH SUICIDE 1897 SOCIAL TIES THROUGH RELIGIOUS RITES 1912 DOES COLEMAN HAVE SUCH A PROBLEM STRUCTURE? DOES COLEMAN DIRECT SOCIOLOGISTS TO OVERARCHING QUESTIONS AND SUB-QUESTIONS?

34. COLEMAN ALSO MISJUDGES THE DEPTH OF WEBER’S QUESTION ABOUT PROTESTANTISM AND CAPITALISM AND THE ANTI-RAT CHARACTER OF HIS EXPLANATION WEBER AS A HISTORIAN OF LAW REJECTED SMITH’S MACRO-HYPOTHESIS THAT LAWS STIPULATING FREEDOM OF ENTERPRISE, LABOUR, PRICES ETC MAKE FOR THE WEALTH OF NATIONS THESE LAWS WERE THERE IN CHINA, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH DID NOT HAPPEN THERE AND THESE LAWS DIFFERED HARDLY FROM 15 TH CENTURY ITALY AND 17 TH CENTURY ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS WHILE STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH ONLY HAPPENED IN ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS WEBER HAD A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES

35. Coleman, ‘Microfoundations of macrosocial behavior’, page 159

36. WEBER HAD A PUZZLE ABOUT SOCIETIES TO SOLVE THAT PUZZLE WEBER WENT BACK TO THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IS NOT ONLY DETERMINED BY OPPORTUNITIES, BUT ALSO BY MOTIVATIONS WHY DID THE PEOPLE IN CHINA AND IN 15 TH CENTURY ITALY NOT USE THE OPPORTUNITIES THE LAWS OFFERED AND ACCUMULATE WEALTH IN THIS WAY? WHICH MOTIVATION DID THE PEOPLE IN 17 TH CENTURY ENGLAND AND THE NETHERLANDS HAVE TO USE THE FREEDOMS OF LABOUR, ENTERPRISE, ETC?

38. ACCORDING TO LINDENBERG CUM SUIS OF THE ICS EXPLANATIONS OF MACRO PHENOMENA SHOULD START FROM THE ASSUMPTION THAT PEOPLE ACT RATIONALLY HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL QUITE DIFFERENT RATIONAL CHOICE EXPLANATIONS OF ONE EMPIRICAL REGULARITY WHEREAS THE MOST GENERAL HYPOTHESIS OF A MULTI-LAYERED THEORY SHOULD EXPLAIN SEVERAL REGULARITIES IN ONE STROKE THAT IS WHY I LIKE TO GO BACK TO DURKHEIM’S EXPLANATION OF SUICIDE REGULARITIES AND LENSKI’S S PRINCIPLE THAT RESOURCES MAKE FOR PRIVILEGES

39. ACCORDING TO COLEMAN THERE ARE DIFFICULTIES WITH EXEMPLARS OF THE SOCIOLOGICAL ENTERPRISE WHEN DERIVING PROPOSITIONS ABOUT SOCIETIES FROM PROPOSITIONS ABOUT INDIVIDUALS THESE DIFFICULTIES HAVE BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE INTERNATIONAL LITERATURE BY WAY OF COLEMAN’S BOAT COLEMAN’S BOAT DOES NOT SOLVE THEM COLEMAN’S BOAT AGGREVATES THEM

40. COLEMAN, FOUNDATIONS, 1990, page 6: ‘THE MAJOR PROBLEM FOR EXPLANATIONS OF SYSTEM BEHAVIOR BASED ON ACTIONS AND ORIENTATIONS AT A LEVEL BELOW THAT OF THE SYSTEM IS THAT OF MOVING FROM THE LOWER LEVEL TO THE SYSTEM LEVEL’ NOTE: COLOEMAN DOES NOT TALK ABOUT MOVING FROM THE HIGHER TO THE LOWER LEVEL

41. THE SOLUTION: COLEMAN’S BOAT TAKEN FROM HEDSTRÖM 2005 page 115 LINE 4 SHOULD HAVE NO DOTS, THE OTHER LINES SHOULD BE DOTTED

42. PROBLEMS PRECEDE THEORIES PUZZLES ARE ‘ANCHORS’ FOR COLEMAN’S BOAT BUT IN THE BOAT THEY ARE ON TOP! MACROPUZZLES MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO MOVE FROM MACROTHEORIES TO MICROTHEORIES

43. WEBER’S EXPLANATION IN TERMS OF COLEMAN’S BOAT SMITH HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TWO MACRO-PROPERTIES ONE MACRO-PROPERTY REFERS TO A COUNTRY’S LAWS WHERE TO PLACE THIS COLLECTIVE ACTOR? WEBER ALSO HAD A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN A MACRO-PROPERTY AND AN INDIVIDUAL PROPERTY LAWS STIPULATING FREEDOMS ARE FOR INDIVIDUALS OPPORTUNITIES TO ACT WEBER HAD THE SAME RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDIVIDUAL’S ACTIONS AND THE SOCIETAL OUTCOME AS SMITH IF A MEMBER OF A SOCIETY ACCUMULATES MORE WEALTH, NATIONAL INCOME GROWS

44. MARKETS AS LEGAL OPPORTUNITIES WEALTH OF NATIONS INDIVIDUAL MOTIVATIONS INDIVIDUAL WEALTH

45. IN COLEMAN’S READING WEBER HAD AN ARROW BETWEEN TWO INDIVIDUAL PROPERTIES IN MY OPINION WEBER TOOK TWO PROPERTIES AS THE JOINT CAUSE OF BEHAVIOUR : OPPORTUNITIES PLUS MOTIVATIONS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SMITH AND WEBER WAS THAT THE ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH WAS AN UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE OF THE RATIONALIZATION OF THE MEANS OF SALVATION WEBER HAD IDEAS ABOUT TWISTED MOTIVATIONS

47. SOCIETAL EDUCATIONAL INEQUALITY SOCIETAL INCOME INEQUALITY INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION INDIVIDUAL INCOME COLEMAN’S BOAT APPLIED TO INEQUALITY Coleman, ‘Microfoundations and macrosocial behavior’, 1987, page 165

48. THE MOST COMMON MACRO-PROPOSITION ABOUT INEQUALITY SINCE LENSKI’S 1966 POWER AND PRIVILEGE LEFT-WING GOVERNMENTS MAKE FOR LOWER GINI’S GOING BACK TO A LOWER LAYER EXPLANATION YIELDS AN ALTERNATIVE MEASURE FOR INCOME INEQUALITY DO NOT COMPUTE GINI’S, COMPUTE DECILE SHARES THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE BOAT IS REPLACED

49. UNDERLYING LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS IN A DEMOCRACY, TO GOVERN ANY PARTY MUST CATER TO AT LEAST 51 % OF THE VOTERS FOR THAT REASON THERE NEVER WILL BE A REDISTRIBUTION FROM THE HIGHEST TO THE LOWEST DECILE THE LOWEST DECILE WILL NOT BENEFIT MUCH FROM ANY GOVERNMENT - WHETHER LEFT OR RIGHT NEVER AGGREGATE INDIVIDUAL INCOME INTO GINI’S COMPUTE DECILE SHARES THE MORE INFORMATIVE LOWER -LAYER HYPOTHESIS DOES AWAY WITH TOO GENERAL MACRO - MEASURES FOR INEQUALITY NOT THAT THESE MEASSURES ARE WRONG THESE MEASURES DO NOT FIT THE HYPOTHESES AT HAND

51. BOUDON CURSED DUNCAN’S MODEL AS VARIABLE SOCIOLOGY THAT TERM OF OPPROBATION WAS APPLIED AGAIN TO DUNCAN’S MODEL BY HEDSTRÖM AND IS NOW APPLIED GENERALLY BY ESSER

52. DUNCAN THE AMERICAN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE 1967 page 170 THE BASIC MODEL, WHICH PERTAINS TO THE USA IN 1962 SURELY, FIVE INDIVIDUAL VARIABLES DOTS REFER TO VARIABLES, ARROWS STAND FOR EFFECTS

53. MISSING COEFFI- CIENTS.342.321.288.313 DUNCAN’S INGREDIENTS OF ADVANCED MODELS FOR FOUR AGE GROUPS

54. DUNCAN COMPUTED FOUR MODELS TO TEST THE HYPOTHESIS THAT THE SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE TO INDUSTRY IN A COUNTRY WEAKENS THE TIE BETWEEN FATHER’S AND SON’S OCCUPATION AND STRENGTHENS THE BOND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION AND OCCUPATION

55. IS THAT HYPOTHESIS A MACRO- PROPOSITION OR IS THAT HYPOTHESIS A MICRO- PROPOSITION? THAT HYPOTHESIS IS A MACRO-MICRO-PROPOSITION!

56. SO, THE BOTTOM OF COLEMAN’S BOAT IS ALSO ITS ROOF

57. DUNCAN’S RELATION BETWEEN EDUCATION AND INCOME IS NOT ONLY AN INDIVIDUAL RELATION IT IS ALSO A MACRO PROPERTY: IT REFERS TO THE USA IN 1962 AND IT IS A VARIABLE SOCIETAL PROPERTY: IT CAN BE COMPUTED FOR OTHER PLACES AND TIMES

58. INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1973 INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1973 ONE WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES IN A MACRO PROPERTY INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION USA 1962 INDIVIDUAL INCOME USA 1962 INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 1993 INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 1993 INDIVIDUAL EDUCATION NETHERLANDS 2003 INDIVIDUAL INCOME NETHERLANDS 2003

60. IF A SOCIETY’S INCOME DISTRIBUTION DOES NOT CHANGE THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE INCOME OF ALL INDIVIDUALS OR ALL HOUSEHOLDS DOES NOT CHANGE THAT IS WHY MOBILITY QUESTIONS ARE GOOD FOLLOW-UPS TO DISPARITY QUESTIONS

61. OCCUPATION FATHER OCCUPATION SON INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY

62. OCCUPATION FATHER OCCUPATION SON ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY

63. OCCUPATION FATHER OCCUPATION SON INFLOW AND OUTFLOW PERCENTAGES ODDS RATIOS FOR UNEQUAL COMPETITIVE OUTCOMES A RAFT WITH TWO MASTS AND TWO SAILS TO REPRESENT THE SHIFT FROM THE FIRST TO THE THIRD GENERATION OF MOBILITY STUDIES THE SAILS TAKE THE RAFT IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND MAKE FOR SEPARATE MACROQUESTIONS ANOTHER WAY TO TURN A RELATION BETWEEN TWO MICRO PROPERTIES INTO A MACRO PROPERTY

64. COLEMAN ABOUT RELATIVE MOBILITY QUESTIONS: ONE SHOULD NOT ELIMINATE QUESTIONS ABOUT STRUCTURES HOWEVER, LOGLINEAR AND REGRESSION MODELS ARE CAPABLE OF MODELLING STRUCTURAL DIFFERENCES LOGLINEAR MODELS YIELD SHIFT COEFFICIENTS LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS YIELD INTERCEPTS AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE TO ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE RELATION BETWEEN SHIFT AND DISTANCE AND THE RELATION BETWEEN INTERCEPT AND SLOPE

66. MOVING FROM A LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS TO A HIGHER-LAYER HYPOTHESIS AMOUNTS TO RE-INTERPRETING AN INHERENT PROPERTY AS A RELATIONAL PROPERTY Popper, ‘Aim of science’, 1957, page 29

67. POPPER’S RELATIONAL PROPERTIES COMPRISE WHAT IS KNOWN IN SOCIOLOGY AS CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES SMITH INTERPRETED MARKETS NOT SIMPLY AS A MACRO - PHENOMENON BUT ALSO AS A RELATIONAL PROPERTY OF AN INDIVIDUAL

68. HOW TO GO BEYOND THE IDEA OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND MAKE MULTI - LAYERED THEORIES? DISTINGUISH TYPES OF CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES AND SPELL OUT A THEORY COMPRISING HIGHER- AND LOWER-LAYER HYPOTHESES AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS

69. WHICH AXIOMS AND AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS DOES THE RAT PARADIGM HAVE? BECKER, A TREATISE ON THE FAMILY 1981, page viii ‘THIS VOLUME USES THE ASSUMPTIONS OF MAXIMIZING BEHAVIOR, STABLE PREFERENCES, AND EQUILIBRIUM IN IMPLICIT OR EXPLICIT MARKETS’

70. BECKER HERE STATES THE AXIOM THAT INDIVIDUALS ARE RATIONAL AND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT THEY ACT ON MARKETS HOWEVER, NOT ONLY MARKETS COORDINATE INDIVIDUAL BEHAVIOR AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ARE NOT ANCILLARY ASSUMPTIONS

71. RATIONAL CHOICE SOCIOLOGY IS A MISNOMER THE PROPER NAME IS MARKET SOCIOLOGY THIS IS NOW RECOGNIZED IN THE SOCIOLOGY OF RELIGION ALBERT MARKTSOZIOLOGIE UND ENTSCHEIDUNGSLOGIK 1967 Iannaccone, ‘Voodoo economics?’, 1995, page 76: ‘… a[n] … application of rational choice [theory] - the religious market alternative to secularization theory - …’

72. HOW TO EXPAND MARKET SOCIOLOGY? RAT IS IN NEED OF A THEORY OF SOCIETY WHICH GOES BEYOND THE AUXILIARY ASSUMPTION THAT MARKETS ARE THE ONLY INSTITUTION COORDINATING HUMAN ACTION

73. HEILBRONER AND THE PRODUCTION OF INDIVIDUAL GOODS: * MARKETSHUNGER AVERSION * HIERARCHIESPAIN AVERSION * COMMUNITIESDERISION AVERSION FREE AFTER HEILBRONER, THE WORLDLY PHILOSOPHERS, 1953

74. SO, APART FROM MARKET SOCIOLOGY THERE IS ORGANIZATIONAL SOCIOLOGY AND CULTURAL SOCIOLOGY THE OPPOSITION BETWEEN RATIONAL ACTION AND NORM-GUIDED BEHAVIOR IS FALSE

75. VAN DEN DOEL AND THE PRODUCTION OF COLLECTIVE GOODS BY SOCIETAL POLITIES: * WISE BENEVOLENT DICTATOR * TWO INDEPENDENT PERSONS * A POPULATION MAKING UNANIMOUS DECISIONS * MAJORITY DECISIONS VAN DEN DOEL DEMOCRACY AND WELFARE ECONOMICS 1978

77. STATISTICAL MODELS FROM THE NIJMEGEN RESEARCH PROGRAM ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE SHIFT FROM A HIGLY RELIGIOUS SOCIETY TO AN ULTRA-LIBERAL SOCIETY THE MULTI-LEVEL MODELS CONTAIN CONTEXTUAL PROPERTIES WHICH PERTAIN TO STATES MARKETS COMMUNITIES

78. MACRO-X MACRO-Y MICRO-XMICRO-Y CONTEXTUAL EFFECTS AND THE COLEMAN BOAT THE HULL OF COLEMAN’S BOAT REINFORCED

80. FROM QUESTIONS ABOUT BEING A CHURCH MEMBER OR NOT TO QUESTIONS ABOUT REMAINING IN OR LEAVING CHURCH THREE REGULARITIES TO BE EXPLAINED : LIBERAL PROTESTANTS MOST LIKELY TO LEAVE, ORTHODOX PROTESTANTS LEAST OLDER PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO LEAVE THE HIGHER SOMEONE’S EDUCATION, THEY HIGHER THE CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH BY THE PRINCIPLE THAT OPPORTUNITIES AND MOTIVATIONS MAKE FOR BEHAVIOUR

81. FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 1998 INSTALLMENT LOOSING MY RELIGION (NUFFIELD REMIX) NAN-DIRK DE GRAAF, NEED, ULTEE 2004

83. COMMUNITY EFFECT : PROTESTANT SCHOOLS COUNTER CHURCH LEAVING CATHOLIC SCHOOLS DO NOT MARKET EFFECT : THE MORE NON-RELIGIOUS PERSONS THERE ALREADY ARE IN A PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY IS A RELIGIOUS PERSON LIVING IN THAT PROVINCE TO LEAVE CHURCH MANIPULATION OF THE INTERACTION TERMS FOR YEAR AND DENOMINATION SHOW THAT NOWADAYS CHANCES OF LEAVING CHURCH DO NOT DIFFER BETWEEN DENOMINATIONS

84. + NOTE THAT WE CIRCURVENT THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF STATISTICALLY DISTINGUISHING EFFECTS OF AGE, COHORT AND PERIOD BY BRINGING IN SUBSTANTIVE HYPOTHESES

85. IF RELIGIOUS PARENTS VOTE FOR A LEFT-WING PARTY THEIR CHILDREN ARE MORE LIKELY TO LEAVE CHURCH MARKET EFFECT: IRRESPECTIVE OF A RELIGIOUS PERSON’S EDUCATION THE HIGHER THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN THIS PERSON’S PROVINCE THE MORE LIKELY THIS PERSON IS TO LEAVE CHURCH

86. THE MAIN EFFECT OF AGE DOES NOT DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING LEAVING HOME AND MARRIAGE THE MAIN EFFECT OF EDUCATION DOES DISAPPEAR AFTER INTRODUCING AN INTERACTION OF LEAVING HOME AND EDUCATION INTERACTION OF OPPORTUNITY AND MOTIVATION : PEOPLE BECOME NON-RELIGIOUS WHEN THEY LEAVE HOME AND CONTINUE THEIR EDUCATION

88. OFFICIAL STATISTICS OF DEATH CAUSES AND SUICIDES THE NETHERLANDS 1936-1973 WE PAID FOR DIAGITALIZATION OF THE DATA

89. DURKHEIM FOUND FOR GERMAN STATES AT THE END OF THE 19TH CENTURY PROTESTANTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DIE OF SUICIDE THAN CATHOLICS

90. WE POSTULATED A MARKET EFFECT : IF THE PERCENT OF NON - RELIGIOUS PERSONS IN A MUNICIPALITY IS HIGHER THE SUICIDE RATE FOR EVERY RELIGION IS HIGHER AND WE POSTULATED A COMMUNITY EFFECT : IF THE PERCENT OF CATHOLICS IN A MUNICIPALITY IS HIGHER ONLY THE SUICIDE RATES FOR CATHOLICS ARE LOWER

92. VAN TUBERGEN, TE GROTENHUIS, ULTEE AJS 2005

94. FAMILY SURVEY DUTCH POPULATION 2003 INSTALLMENT 2006 PUBLICATION IN DUTCH OF LUBBERS, JASPERS, ULTEE FORTHCOMING IN ENGLISH

95. Gay marriage should be abolished % (1) Completely disagree 49.7 65.4 (2) Largely disagree 15.7 (3) Don’t agree or disagree 18.7 ( 4) Largely agree 3.8 15.9 (5) Completely agree 12.1 Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003 ANSWERS TO AN EXTREME 2003 SURVEY ITEM OLDER ITEMS DID NOT DIFFERENTIATE ANYMORE

96. MEN MUCH MORE THAN WOMEN IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE EDUCATION MOVES PEOPLE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS MAINTAINANCE NO EFFECT OF MOTHER’S EDUCATION AND RELIGION AFTER BRINGING IN MOTHER’S ATTITUDE TOWARDS HOMOSEXUALITY WHEN PERSON WAS YOUNG INDIVIDUAL RELIGION HAS LIMITED EFFECT WHEN MEASURED AS MEMBERSHIP MORE SO IF MEASURED AS CHURCH ATTENDANCE CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES PEOPLE MOVE FROM NEUTRALITY TOWARDS ABOLITION LIVING IN A PROTESTANT AREA MAKES PEOPLE MORE IN FAVOR OF ABOLISHING GAY MARRIAGE

97. Table 4:Importance of the different determinants in explaining attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage (by removing one characteristic from model 5 in table 3b; n=1204) Characteristic removedχ 2 loss Educational level mother0.14 Church membership/attendance mother1.96 Attitude mother towards homosexuality50.41** Highest educational level completed11.25** Field of study3.55 Church membership19.25* Religious elementary school2.28 % Protestants living in COROP area6.38* % Catholics living in COROP area2.86 Co-habitation status7.65 Sex11.98** Age1.83 Origin9.84* Church attendance53.18** Model χ 2 368.72 ~ = p<0.10; * = p<0.05; ** = p<0.01 Source: Netherlands Family Survey 2003. Importance of determinants of attitude towards the abolition of gay marriage assessed by removing one characteristic from final model

99. OPINIONS ABOUT ABORTION IN WESTERN EUROPE 1981-2000 14 COUNTRIES FROM THE EUROPEAN VALUES SURVEY FORTHCOMING BY NEED, LEVELS, ULTEE

100. APART FROM INDIVIDUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE GENDER AGE DENOMINATION EDUCATION CHURCH ATTENDANCE CONTEXTUAL CHARACTERISTICS LIKE PERCENT OF NON-RELIGIOUS IN AREA PERCENT OF CATHOLICS IN AREA AVERAGE EDUCATION IN AREA STRICTNESS OF NATIONAL ABORTION LAW NUMBER OF ABORTIONS IN COUNTRY AS PERCENT OF NUMBER OF BIRTHS

101. ASSUMED CAUSAL ORDER PERCENT OF CATHOLICS STRICTNESS ABORTION LAW NUMBER OF ABORTIONS

102. CATHOLICS MORE OPPOSED AGAINST ABORTION PROTESTANTS NOT CHURCH ATTENDANCE MAKES FOR OPPOSITION EDUCATION LOWERS OPPOSITION

103. THE STRICTNESS OF THE ABORTION LAW MAKES FOR MORE INDIVIDUAL OPPOSITION THIS HIERARCHY EFFECT IS INDIRECT BY WAY OF THE ABORTION RATIO PERCENT OF NON - BELIEVERS MAKES FOR LESS OPPOSITION PERCENT OF CATHOLICS HAS NO INFLUENCE AVERAGE EDUCATION MAKES FOR LESS OPPOSITION

105. IMPROVING AUXILIARY ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT MACRO OUTCOMES MARKETS: OPTIMAL EQUILIBRIA OR COMPETITIVE EXCESSES? HIERARCHIES: CRIME-FREE STREETS OR BUREAUCRATIC PATCHWORK? COMMUNITIES: SHARED COSINESS OR PRESTIGIOUS LEADERS WITH SECRETE VICES?

106. DID I ‘SINK THE COLEMAN’? COLEMAN’S BOAT WAS ALREADY MAKING WATER BUT DID I PRESENT AN AIRWORTHY PLANE? TO BE POSTED ON MY WEBSITE TYPE IN GOOGLE WOUT ULTEE THE FIRST HIT GO TO FOREIGN PRESENTATIONS