Futuring the Key to NC Success Pat Sobrero NC Urban Extension Summit May 11, 2005

Futuring the Key to NC Success “The difficulty in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, but to respond with yesterday’s logic.” --- Peter Drucker

Embrace Anticipatory Techniques Extension has all of the tools needed in order to implement futuring as a viable precursor to planning and to inform ongoing program direction.

Embrace Anticipatory Techniques Organizations “must become more forward looking to deal effectively and systematically with an increasingly turbulent environment… This turbulence has the potential to either destroy…or offer new opportunities. ---Morrison and Ashley

Steps of Futuring Step 1 –Scan and monitor the environment.  Assure that social, economic, political, environmental and technological changes are analyzed using existing county, state and national data centers.  Include both observational and research-based data.

Steps of Futuring Step 1 –Scan and monitor the environment.  Incorporate local learner and stakeholder input including customer/learner satisfaction. Result:  Extension develops user friendly access to “situational analysis” intelligence.

LOGIC MODEL: Program Performance Framework INPUTS OUTPUTS Activities Participation What we invest Staff Volunteers Time Money Materials Equipment Technology Partners What we do Workshops Meetings Counseling Facilitation Assessments Product dev. Media work Recruitment Training Who we reach Participants Customers Citizens What the short term results are Learning Awareness Knowledge Attitudes Skills Opinions Aspirations Motivations What the medium term results are Implement Behavior Practice Decisions Policies Social action What the ultimate impact(s) is Societal Social Economic Civic Environmental ASSUMPTIONS 1) 2) 3) 4) ENVIRONMENT Influential factors S I T U A T I O N Short Medium Long Term OUTCOMES – IMPACT

Situational Analysis

Trends in NC

Steps of Futuring Step 2 – Analyze internal and external assumptions. Consider external driving forces and internal organizational assumptions related to :  relevancy,  priorities of targeted learners,  societal trends, as well as  the mission of the organization and availability of resources.

Steps of Futuring Step 3 - Create scenarios around emerging issue areas.  Use data driven intelligence and results of assumption analysis to develop four scenarios for each targeted issue area where change is likely to occur.  The scenarios should range from a very desirable future to an undesirable or even catastrophic future.  Develop these scenarios in a written format and include details.

Steps of Futuring Step 4 - Develop a list of forecasts with each scenario.  Refer to the data-driven intelligence gathered.  Add recommended interventions that could change the future forecast and attach estimated resources needed for the intervention.

Steps of Futuring Step 5 - Use the results of the first four steps to write a succinct issue brief.  This brief should be short and compelling.  Issue briefs should be available electronically. Open access to issue briefs will inform program development and enable a learning organization culture of empowerment.

Steps of Futuring Step 6 - Assign issue briefs that include scenarios to the program champion most likely to notice the indicators and signals of an emerging change.

Steps of Futuring Step 7 - Assign teams the annual responsibility of continual futuring to inform planning, direction, funding, staffing, partnerships and programs.

Effective Futuring Leads to: Higher quality decision-making. Shifting from reactive to proactive modes to anticipate change. More effective and timely framing, valuing and ranking of program priorities. Positioning current and future assets to address emerging issues.

Anticipatory Management: Futuring “ The impact and consequences of decisions made today will frame Extension’s viability for future generations.” Lets have the courage to connect “people to the wealth of relevant knowledge and research residing within various colleges and disciplines of the university.” (NASULGC, 2002, Page 2)

From Theory to Practice Step 1 –Scan and monitor the environment. Step 2 – Analyze internal and external assumptions. Consider external driving forces and internal organizational assumptions.

From Theory to Practice Step 3 - Create scenarios around emerging issues.

From Theory to Practice Step 4 - Develop a list of forecasts with each scenario. Step 5 - Use the results of the first four steps to write a succinct issue brief.

Issue Brief Format I.Issue - What is the Issue? II.Situational Analysis - What is the background/context of the issue? III.Drivers and Patterns - What are the forces driving the issue? What patterns will begin to change?

Issue Brief Format IV.Status & Prediction - Where is the issue going? What are its prospects? V.Implications - What are the implications of the issue for research, Extension, teaching and urban communities? VI.Preparation - What should we do now to prepare for the issue?

From Theory to Practice Step 6 - Assign issue briefs that include scenarios to the program champion most likely to notice the indicators and signals of an emerging change. Step 7 - Assign teams the annual responsibility of continual futuring to inform planning, direction, funding, staffing, partnerships and programs.

Futuring the Key to NC Success Futuring and timely proactive planning tied to meaningful engagement with the people in each state will result in Extension being highly valued as the proactive “catalyst for connecting people to the wealth of relevant knowledge and research residing within various colleges and disciplines of the university.” (NASULGC, 2002, Page 2)