Real-time Seismology Masumi Yamada Kyoto University.

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Presentation transcript:

Real-time Seismology Masumi Yamada Kyoto University

Jim Mori

Earthquake Location of aftershocks determined (Mainshock was assumed to be the same place) Magnitude estimated as min 14 min 24 min 1994 Northridge EQ Jim Mori

2011 Tohoku EQ Earthquake P-wave detected Location and Magnitude determined Earthquake Early Warning issued Observed Seismic Intensity reported Tsunami Warning issued 0 sec 19 sec 27 sec 3 min 3.5 min

29min 34min Shaking arrival Tsunami arrival Mainichi.jp 10sec 55min Tsunami hight

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

Wald(2005) Seismic Stations San Francis co Los Anagele s

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismometer

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs communicationseismometer

sens or Japan Meteorological Agency TV radio cell phone town speaker provider train factory <1sec

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs communicationseismometer

Providing Earthquake Early Warning needs seismologycommunicationseismometer

Kanamori (2005)

Trade-off: Speed vs Accuracy

8 warnings for M6-7 earthquakes in 3 years …but 10 times more after March 11, M Obs. Pred. May 8, July 8, July 24, Sep. 11, Aug. 11, Oct. 30, Feb. 27, Mar. 14,

64% 17% 13% Cell phone TV Radio Announce Town speaker Unknown Tohoku earthquake March 11, 2011

“Earthquake occurred off Fukushima. Prepare for strong shaking.” (Japan Meteorological Agency)

Galapagos phone Smart phone -NTT OK -Au OK -Softbank NO -NTT NO -Au OK -Softbank NO (iphone) vs

with EEW 47% no EEW 53% 47% of cell phone can receive EEW JMA website, September 2010

How to Use EEW ?

27 bullet trains were stopped without derailments. - March 11, 2011

2003 Sanriku EQ US $15 million loss 2005 Miyagi EQ US $200k loss $600k invested in EEW and structural improvements OKI SEMICONDUCTOR

Nature.com

Human Seismometer iSeismometer Tsunami Warning Your idea

Thank you for your attention. “Real-time Seismology” Masumi Univ.

Good!Bad… 3/11 M9 3/12 M6 JMA website Improve Location Estimation

Real-time Seismology