USGS, Denver, Colorado USA PRMS/MMS: A Model and Modeling Framework for Use in Water- and Environmental-Resources Management George Leavesley USGS, Denver, Colorado USA

Overview PRMS MMS Focus Areas in Model Development Summary Model Processes Toolbox Summary

PRMS

PRMS Features Modular Design Deterministic Distributed Parameter Daily and Storm Mode User Modifiable

Distributed Parameter Approach Hydrologic Response Units - HRUs HRU Delineation Based on: - Slope - Aspect - Elevation - Vegetation - Soil - Precip Distribution

HRU DELINEATION AND CHARACTERIZATION Grid Cell Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) Polygon Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs)

PRMS -- HRU Delineation Topographic Pixelated

CASCADING FLOW PLANES Overland Flow Path Channel Segment 1 2 3 1 7 8 Overland Flow Path 10 9 1 Channel Segment 3 Channel Junction 4 3 6 2 Overland Flow Plane 2 4 width Grass/Agriculture Bare Ground/Rock 5 12 11 Trees length Shrubs

The Modular Modeling System (MMS) An integrated system of computer software developed to: Provide a common framework for model development and operational applications Facilitate the integration of multi-disciplinary modeling approaches for use in addressing complex, multi-objective, resource-management problems Provide a toolbox-approach to the development of resource-management, decision-support systems

MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) Model Builder MMS Interface Object User Interface

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

PRMS

WEBMOD PRMS National Weather Service - Hydro17 TOPMODEL

Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Flow Paths and Residence Times Next step: Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic solutions Chloride Potassium DOC Oxygen Isotopes Bedrock Alkalinity Equifinality vs uncertainty in time and place.

Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone Models PRMS to SFR Unsaturated Zone Model: PRMS to UNSAT UNSAT to MODFLOW PRMS to MODFLOW MODFLOW to SFR Streamflow

2x vertical exaggeration Sagehen Creek Model 2x vertical exaggeration Springs Stream gage

Ground-Water Discharge & Saturation Excess

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Aquatic Habitat Models Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model

Aquatic Habitat Models Results ft3/s ft2

LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

Watershed and River Systems Management Program Recreation Watershed and River Systems Management Program Municipal & Industrial Irrigation Hydropower Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues. Riparian Habitat Endangered Species

WARSMP Basins Currently Active Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima Under Development San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia Future Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon WARSMP Basins

Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of Management Issues Any Resource Management Model Climate Data Source Any Database DMI DMI DMI MMI Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models

Database-Centered Decision Support System Hydromet Real-time climate data feed Hydrologic Database DMI DMI USBR RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model DMI DMI USGS Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling USGS Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS)

OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)

Environmental Database-Centered Decision Support System (DSS) Resource Database Resource Management Alternatives SIMPPLLE Vegetation Dynamics Models (USFS) Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models DMI

Focus Area Model Processes Precipitation Distribution Snow accumulation and melt proceses Parameter estimation in ungauged basins

Precipitation Interpolation Methods Inverse distance weighting Kriging Multiple linear regression Climatological multiple linear regression Locally weighted polynomial k nearest neighbor …

PRMS Snowpack Energy Balance Components

Evaluating MM5 Output Using PRMS

Nested Domains for MM5

HRU Configurations Polygon Grid

HRU Configurations

(Climate Station Data) Effects of HRU Configuration and Data Source (Yampa River @Steamboat Springs) Grid Polygon (Climate Station Data) 20 5 1.7 HRU Type/ Data Size

Satellite vs Modeled Snow Covered Area east

Animas Basin Snow-covered Area Year 2000 Simulated Measured (MODIS Satellite) Error Range <= 0.1

NOHRSC Snow Modeling Framework Data Assimilation 2 Temperature Relative Humidity Wind Speed Solar Radiation Atmos. Radiation Precipitation Precipitation Type Hourly Input Gridded Data (1 km) Soils Properties Land Use/Cover Forest Properties Static Gridded Data (1 km) Snow Energy and Mass Balance Model Blowing Snow Model Radiative Transfer Model State Variables for Multiple Vertical Snow & Soil Layers Snow Water Equivalent Snow Depth Snow Temperature Liquid Water Content Snow Sublimation Snow Melt 1 Snow Observations Snow Water Equivalent Snow Depth Snow Cover 3 NSA Product Generation Interactive Maps Digital Data Discussions

NOHRSC Snow Model Physics

National Snow Analyses (NSA) Data Products Interactive Maps Time Series Plots Text Discussions Snow Information Products High-resolution Daily and Hourly Gridded Snow Data Sets of Fused Model and Observations Local Information (1 km2) Continental U.S. Information Snow Water Equivalent Snow Depth Snow Density Snow Sfc. Temperature Snow Avg. Temperature Snow Melt Sublimation Snow Wetness Archived at NCDC, NSIDC, and NDFD (soon)

Animas River @ Durango 1805 km2

Animas River Basin, CO

Predicted and Measured Streamflow Animas Basin, CO 1990 - 2005 PREDICTED MEASURED

Animas Basin SWE - 2004 April 1 (in.) May 1 SNODAS PRMS

Animas Basin SWE - 2005 (in.) April 1 May 1 SNODAS PRMS

SWE Difference on Selected HRUs SWE_diff = SNODAS - PRMS

PRMS OBS Q (cfs) Animas PRMS SNODAS melt (in) PRMS SNODAS swe (in)

a priori Parameter Estimation IAHS Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUBs) predict the fluxes of water and associated constituents from ungauged basins, along with estimates of the uncertainty of predictions Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) develop techniques for the a priori estimation of the parameters used in land surface parameterization schemes of atmospheric models and in hydrologic models

Gauged Subbasins in the Upper Gunnison Basin, CO East River Taylor River Tomichi Creek Lake Fork Cochetopa Creek

Forecasting at Internal Nodes Hunter Creek nr Aspen, Colorado Hunter Midway No Name Gage Trans-mountain Diversion Points HRUs

GIS WEASEL Delineation: Only requires elevation Grid as input Interactively delineate Area of Interest Many kinds of features Streams Elevation bands Landuse Contributing areas Topographic index ……

Satellite SW Radiation (U Md) Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) DIGITAL DATABASES STATSGO Soils (USDA) Satellite SW Radiation (U Md) Monthly PET

AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

MOPEX US Basin Locations Workshop I Workshop II: 20 basins in France Workshop ? 438 basins

Participants MOPEX Workshop I NWS (SWB & SAC) Meteo France (ISBA) Russian Academy of Science (SWAP) UC Berkeley / Princeton (VIC) Cemagref, France (GR4J) NCEP (NOAH) USGS (PRMS) Yamanashi University (BTOPMC) Swedish Meteor. and Hydro. Institute, Sweden (HBV) University of Alberta, Canada (SAC) University of Newcastle, Australia University of Arizona Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK Oregon State University Wageningen University, The Netherlands National Institute of Hydrology, Canada University of New Hampshire

MOPEX Workshop I Results Average daily Nash-Sutcliffe CE for all 12 basins Uncalibrated Calibrated PRMS NWS VIC PRMS NWS VIC

Ensemble Modeling 10 Model Ensemble

Dill Basin, Germany Topography 750 km2 Sub-basins Land Use

Bias & Efficiency of Model Simulations Original Precip Data Set

Focus Area Toolbox

TOOLBOX TOOL PITCH Parameterizer (GIS Weasel)

TOOLBOX TOOL PITCH Parameterizer (GIS Weasel) Optimizer (Luca)

Statistical and graphical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools TOOLBOX Statistical and graphical sensitivity and uncertainty analysis tools TOOL PITCH Parameterizer (GIS Weasel) Optimizer (Luca) Analyzer

OMS

Integrated Framework Development Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) OMS Platform ModelCore ModelBuilder RZWQM PRMS Database Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,… Java Compiler XML Testing C++ Other… - ARS - USGS - NRCS - (NWS) -Friedrich Schiller University, Germany Branding http://oms.ars.usda.gov

Working with the NRCS and NWS to develop a Modular Modeling System forecasting toolbox using MMS/OMS and PRMS

Integrated Adaptive-Modeling and Decision-Support System Summary Facilitates multi-disciplinary integration of models and tools to address the issues of water and environmental-resource management. Allows rapid evaluation of the effects of decision and management scenarios. Allows incorporation of continuing advances in physical, social, and economic sciences. Provides an effective means for sharing scientific understanding with stakeholders and decision makers. Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs.

MORE INFORMATION http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp http://oms.ars.usda.gov