1. The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A Toolbox for Water- and Environmental-Resources Modeling and Management G.H. Leavesley, S.L. Markstrom, R.J. Viger, and L.E. Hay U.S. Geological Survey, Denver, CO USA

2. STARTING POINTS There are no universal models There are no universal models Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application

3. Modeling Conundrum Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others

4. TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS Research Model Developer Complex Detail Research Model Developer Complex Detail Application Model Developer Application Model Developer Model User Model User Resource Manager Resource Manager Policy Maker Condensed Analysis Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

5. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS Single Purpose Multi-objective, Complex

6. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

8. CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN relate directly to real world components or processes relate directly to real world components or processes have input and output variables that are measurable values have input and output variables that are measurable values communicate solely via these input and output variables communicate solely via these input and output variables Modules should Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

10. Model Building Tool - XMBUILD

12. SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS USGS USGS PRMS PRMS GSFLOW GSFLOW WEBMOD WEBMOD OTHER TOPMODEL Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt) Sacramento Model (NWS) Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS) ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria)

13. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

14. Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling MODFLOW PRMS DAFLOW

15. GSFLOW -- Coupled PRMS, MODFLOW, SFR, and Unsaturated Zone Models Streamflow Unsaturated Zone Model: PRMS to UNSAT UNSAT to MODFLOW PRMS to SFR PRMS to MODFLOW MODFLOW to SFR

16. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

17. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Database Fish Model Data Management Interface (DMI) MMS Model Off-the-shelf Model

18. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model

19. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Fish Model PRMS Habitat Suitability Index Channel Geometry Analysis Program (CGAP)

20. Coupled Model Results

21. LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Database Fish Model Data Management Interface (DMI) MMS Model Off-the-shelf Model Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

22. OBJECT USER INTEFACE (OUI)

23. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

24. Watershed and River Systems Management Program Recreation Municipal & Industrial Riparian Habitat Hydropower Irrigation Endangered Species Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.

27. RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

28. Upper Gunnison River DSS Hydrologic Database Hydromet Real-time climate data feed RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model DMI Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS) DMI

29. Generic DSS Framework for a Wide Range of Management Issues Any Database Climate Data Source Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models DMI MMI Any Resource Management Model

30. WARSMP Basins Currently Active Under Development Gunnison, Truckee, Upper Rio Grande, Yakima San Juan, Umatilla, Upper Columbia Future Bitterroot, Carson, Central Platte, Lower Rio Grande, Salmon

31. LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS PROCESS MODEL MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

32. GIS WEASEL Delineation: Only requires elevation Grid as input Interactively delineate Area of Interest Many kinds of features Streams Elevation bands Landuse Contributing areas Topographic index ……

33. Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) DIGITAL DATABASES STATSGO Soils (USDA) Satellite SW Radiation (U Md) Monthly PET

34. AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

35. GIS WEASEL Parameterization: 200+ methods available Easily add custom methods Configure recipes Apply to feature maps Exploit many types of data Produce maps and ASCII files of parameters

36. PARAMETER PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHOD MODEL RECIPE FILE

37. Multi-step Calibration

38. Multi-step calibration visualization

39. ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS Currently Available Statistical and Graphical Analyses Parameter Optimization Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Beta Testing Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Visualization

40. Forecast Methodologies - Historic data as analog for the future Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) - -Synthetic time-series Weather Generator - Atmospheric model output Dynamical Downscaling Statistical Downscaling

41. MMS Development is Accomplished Through Collaborative Multi-disciplinary Efforts

42. Sleepers River, Vermont Trout Lake, Wisconsin Panola Mountain, Georgia Luquillo, Puerto Rico Loch Vale, Colorado WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM USGS

43. WEBMOD PRMS National Weather Service - Hydro17 TOPMODEL

44. Next step:Use tracers to constrain the hydrologic solutions Use Chemical and Isotopic Tracers to Evaluate Simulated Flow Paths and Residence Times

45. Coupled WEBMOD and PHREEQC

46. Satellite image of the Rodeo and Chediski fires before they merged into one fire, eventually burning some 470,000 acres Effects of Vegetation and Vegetation Change on Water and Energy Partitioning Fool Creek Watershed, Fraser Experimental Forest, Colorado (714 acres) Managed Natural Issues: Process, Scale, Parameter Estimation

47. Vegetation Management Model US Forest Service, Missoula, Mt Simulates vegetation patterns and processes emphasizing the dynamics of landscape level change. Produces ensemble output

50. Integrating Science with Resource Management through Collaborative Approaches and Adaptive Modeling Systems Land Use Climate CO 2 Human population Invasive species GDWRD BRDNMD Physical models Resource availability Public land management Restoration plans … Flood & drought impacts Vegetation change Wildland fire Grazing impacts Landslides Water quality Science SynthesisModeling Framework Development NPSCESU USFSBLM SIMPPLLE + Resource Management

51. Initial DSS Development Area USGS, NPS, USFS, BLM, BIA, CO State University, N AZ University

52. Integrating Water-Resource and Socio-Economic Models Population and Demand Forecasts Population and Demand Forecasts Water Markets Water Markets (change in ownership in perpetuity) (change in ownership in perpetuity) Water Banking Water Banking (lease options over some period of time) (lease options over some period of time) Issue: The better the prediction of the spatial and temporal distribution of water, the better the markets can perform. This requires the full integration of physical-process and socio- economic models to optimize economic and institutional analyses.

53. Adding Water Banking to a Water Resources Decision- Support System Hydrologic Database Hydromet Real-time climate data feed RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Precipitation/Runoff Model (PRMS) DMI Water Banking DMIs

54. MMS UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION University of Arizona University of Arizona NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) University of Colorado University of Colorado NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts University of Nevada Reno University of Nevada Reno Desert Research Institute funded – Watershed modeling and coupled SW/GW modeling Desert Research Institute funded – Watershed modeling and coupled SW/GW modeling Colorado State University Colorado State University Interagency MOU funded – GeoLEM and Parameter estimation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis tools Interagency MOU funded – GeoLEM and Parameter estimation, optimization, and sensitivity analysis tools

55. Working with the NRCS to incorporate the USGS Modular Modeling System into the NRCS forecasting toolbox

56. Integrated Framework Development Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) OMS Platform ModelCoreModelBuilderRZWQMPRMSDatabase Netbeans IDE, Sun Forte,… Java CompilerXMLTestingC++Other… - ARS - USGS - NRCS -Friedrich Schiller University, Germany Branding

58. Other Model Integration Approaches U.S. U.S. BASINS (EPA) BASINS (EPA) FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA) FRAMES (DOE, NRC, DOD, EPA) DIAS (DOE) DIAS (DOE) XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS Inc.) XMS (WMS, GMS, SMS, … - EMS Inc.) OMS (USDA) OMS (USDA) International International HarmonIT (Europe) HarmonIT (Europe) Catchment Modeling Toolkit (Australia) Catchment Modeling Toolkit (Australia)

59. MMS SUMMARY Integrated toolbox approach to model development and application for water- and environmental-resources management Integrated toolbox approach to model development and application for water- and environmental-resources management Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-specific needs Easily configured and/or enhanced for user-specific needs Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology as well as changes in management objectives Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology as well as changes in management objectives Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs

60. Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul “ A fool with a tool is still a fool.” System Development magazine POINT

61. MORE INFORMATION http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/mms http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/weasel http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp http://wwwbrr.cr.usgs.gov/warsmp http://oms.ars.usda.gov http://oms.ars.usda.gov http://www.iscmem.org http://www.iscmem.org