120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 1 October 2010 Maine Voter Preference Study – Wave III Prepared for: Maine Today Media October 2010 Focus Groups  Surveys  Public Opinion Polling 120 Exchange Street, Portland, Maine Telephone: Fax:

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 2 October 2010 Introduction

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 3 October 2010 Method & Approach A random, statewide poll of 605 registered likely voters across Maine was conducted on October 10 th and 11 th as a follow up to earlier measurements conducted for Maine Today Media in mid- and late-September, respectively. As with prior waves of measurement, the survey instrument was developed by Critical Insights, in collaboration with Maine Today Media. Live interviews were conducted by telephone using a computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system. In order to qualify for inclusion in the survey, respondents had to: –Be a registered voter in the State of Maine; –Indicate that they voted in the most recent Presidential election in November 2008; and –Claim they were likely to vote in the upcoming election on November 2 nd. Subsequent analysis and compilation of data was also prepared by Critical Insights. –Results presented in this report are based on statistically weighted data to reflect the gender, age, and geographic distribution of Maine voters. –A complete profile of survey respondents may be found at the conclusion of this document. Sample SizeData Collection Period Margin of Error Length of Interview 90%95% 605October 10 th and 11 th, 2010 ±3.4±4.0 8 minutes

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 4 October 2010 Key Results

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 5 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance Programs in Maine In each wave of measurement of this poll for Maine Today Media, rotating items of interest relevant to the upcoming election were included. While Wave II of measurement focused on issues surrounding education and the gubernatorial election, the current poll focused on voters’ perspectives surrounding public assistance programs in Maine, particularly attitudes and beliefs about these programs. Prior to being presented with any questions in this area, all respondents were provided with the following introductory material: Next, I’m going to ask you several questions about government assistance programs in Maine. Sometimes referred to as “welfare programs,” these programs are designed to promote or assure the basic well-being of those documented to be in need. These efforts aim to improve a person or family’s financial status and employment situation, as well as provide access to basic healthcare needs. Depending on the question, sometimes I’ll refer to these programs as “welfare” or as “government assistance.”

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 6 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Management of Public Assistance Programs Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy? A majority of voters polled give Maine an average or lesser grade for its management of public assistance programs.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 7 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Management of Public Assistance Programs, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “poor” and 5 means “excellent,” how well do you believe the State of Maine is currently managing its programs designed to provide assistance to the needy? A majority of LePage supporters give Maine an unfavorable rating for management of public assistance programs. Close to half of Cutler supporters responded similarly, while only one-quarter of Mitchell supporters gave Maine an unfavorable rating.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 8 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance Programs in Maine Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with… “Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.”

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 9 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with… “Poor people in Maine have become too dependent on government assistance programs.” A disproportionate bloc of LePage supporters agree that poor people in Maine have become too dependent on these programs.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 10 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance Programs in Maine Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with… “The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.”

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 11 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate Using a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 means “completely disagree” and 5 means “completely agree,” please tell me your level of agreement with… “The State of Maine has a responsibility to provide assistance for food and housing to people in need.” While strong majorities of those supporting both Mitchell and Cutler agree that Maine has a social responsibility to care for those in need, significantly fewer LePage supporters agree.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 12 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance: “Gaming the System” A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”? A majority of voters believe that no more than half of those receiving public assistance are “gaming the system.” A smaller bloc of voters (21%) believe that more than half of recipients are taking advantage of the system. The remaining 16% of voters don’t know or declined to answer.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 13 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance: “Gaming the System,” by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate A phrase sometimes heard is that some people are “gaming the welfare system.” If you had to guess, approximately what percentage of people currently receiving welfare assistance in Maine are “gaming the system”? When asked to estimate the number of people “gaming the system” in Maine, LePage supporters tend to be more pessimistic than are supporters of either Cutler or Mitchell.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 14 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work? Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 15 October 2010 Voter Perspectives on Public Assistance, by Preferred Gubernatorial Candidate Does the state of Maine do enough to encourage and help those receiving government assistance to find work? Do you believe that Maine should institute a lifetime cap on the amount of state aid any recipient may receive?

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 16 October 2010 Perception of Most Effective Manager of Maine’s Public Assistance Programs Which of the current candidates for Governor do you believe would be most effective at managing the state’s welfare programs? * Includes aggregated totals for Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, respectively.

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 17 October 2010 Respondent Profile: Wave III

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 18 October 2010 Respondent Gender and Age Could you tell me how old you are? % 18 to 44 years old42% 45 to 64 years old41 65 years old or over17

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 19 October 2010 Family Status Do you have any children, age 18 or younger, living with you at home? What is your current marital status? % Married75% Single12 Divorced5 Widowed4 Living as part of a couple2 Don’t know/Refused2

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 20 October 2010 SES: Level of Education & Income What is the highest grade or year of regular school or college that you have completed? % High school or less26% Post high school, technical2 Some college22 College degree34 Some graduate school2 Graduate school degree13 Other2 And which one of the following broad groups includes your entire household’s approximate total yearly income before taxes? % Less than $25,0008% $25,000 to just under $50,00017 $50,000 to just under $75,00017 $75,000 to just under $100,00014 $100,000 or more11 No answer/Refused to specify33

120 Exchange Street Portland Maine 21 October 2010 Political Party and Ideology In what political party are you registered to vote? % Democratic34% Republican33 Unenrolled/Independent25 Green Ind. or other party2 Don’t know/Refused5 Thinking about your political leanings, would you say you are…% Very conservative16% Somewhat conservative26 Moderate30 Somewhat liberal17 Very liberal6 Don’t know/Refused5