Agenda Admin Observational studies and others Why education? The progressives and centralization

The challenge of methods What’s the problem? We want to know if an educational policy causes an outcome: -Does attending a private school make you more likely to go to college? -Is phonics more effective than other instructional methods? -Does smaller class size/charter schools/tutoring increase test scores? -Does level of centralization of the educational system matter?

What’s the solution? Experiments (randomization) Quasi-experiments: – Regression discontinuity designs – Instrumental variables – Difference in differences Propensity scores Virtual twins

Reading a regression table

Questions What are the: Independent variables Dependent variable (what is the effect of the treatment on?) What are the underlying regression equations whose coefficients are being evaluated? Column 1 What is the average score for a student not in a small class? What is the average score for a student in a small class? Are the coefficients statistically significant? Column 2 What is the average score for a female, Asian student on a free-lunch program not in a small class? What is the conceptual difference of the results in Column 2 with the results observed in Column 1? Are the results statistically significant?

Pritchett paradox Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world. --Nelson Mandela BUT… “No associations between increases in human capital and (per worker) rates of growth” --Lant Pritchett Pritchett, L. (2003): Where has all the education gone?

Source: Pritchett, L. (2001) “Where has all the education gone?”

Explanations Quality not captured High diversity of environments: – Institutional environment of education/of production – Increased supply leads to less returns – Skills matching

Middle schools