October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science1 “Less Developed” and “Newly Industrializing” Countries Frank H. Brooks

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science2 Defining the Category  Formerly “Third World”  “developing” countries  Countries not central to Cold War conflict  “Less Developed” and “Newly Industrializing”  Developments since decolonization  Some have industrialized, many same or worse off  Political shifts, to and from democracy  Economic and political aspects  Political variation: authoritarian more common, shift to democracy?  Economic variation: political economic systems, level of development

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science3 Analytical Questions  Why so few established democracies among this group?  Why haven’t more of these countries developed economically?  Why have some (the “newly industrializing”) been more successful in economic development?  What are the connections between democratization and economic development?

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science4 Democratization and Political Development  Conditions for democracy  Social  Modernization (secularism, education)  development of “civil society”  Role of women  Political  Institutions, e.g. parties, presidential v. parliamentary  Rule of law; bureaucracy, public sector, corruption  Economic  Democracy correlated with national wealth  Which comes first?  Historical  Emergence of democracy for advanced democracies  Historical trajectories of less developed countries  Impact of imperialism and colonialism  Focus on general theory or specific cases?

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science5 Barriers to Democratization  National boundaries established under colonialism  Weak states  Nationalism and ethnic conflict  Poor political leadership  International interference (including “aid”)  Poverty  Corruption

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science6 No Preconditions?  Global reach of third wave democratization suggests that democracy can crop up anywhere  Optimistically rejects assumption that some countries “not ready for democracy”  Democracy as a universal value (Diamond)  even where its performance is shaky  even where democracies rare (e.g. Middle East)  If true, research and practical questions are:  Why are there holdouts?  What can be done to hasten democracy among the holdouts?  If not, issues are different:  Why does (re-)democratization emerge from authoritarian breakdown?  How are democracies consolidated?

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science7 Democracy “Drivers”  Economic development  Related to rising levels of education, middle class, vibrant civil society  Emergence of “a more questioning, assertive, pro-democratic political culture”  Economic performance  Authoritarian regimes often rest legitimacy on this  When it fails, they have no legitimacy  International actions and pressures  Especially U.S. emphasis on human rights and decline of Cold War  Also EU, election observers, human rights groups  Changing international norms  Democracy as a “human right”  Has made intervention easier, by NGOs and governments

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science8 Economic Development Challenges  Convergence v. Divergence  In theory, poorer countries should grow at faster rate and “converge”  In practice, most have grown more slowly  Recent convergence, e.g. Latin America Latin AmericaLatin America  Legacy of Imperialism and Colonialism  Focus on extraction of primary commodities  Industrial development suppressed  “terms of trade”, tax policy, “rent-seeking” “rent-seeking”  Foreign aid and foreign debt  Key issues  Relationship to international markets – trade, finance, investment  Infrastructure development – transport, communication, etc.  Human capital development – education, healthcare…  Agricultural sector – export? Subsistence? Political weight?

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science9 Strategies for Economic Development  Export-Oriented Industrialization  E.g. South Korea and other “Asian tigers”  Mercantilist strategy – state maintains low exchange rate, shapes “industrial policy”  Usually suppresses labor organizing to keep labor costs low  Recent examples: China, India?  Import substitution  Brazil a major example until 1990s  Focus on industrial production because of “terms of trade”  Sufficiently-large domestic market walled off from competition – leads to higher costs for manufactured goods (but also ancillary benefits?)  Tendency towards autarky  Structural adjustment policies  Aid and debt restructuring conditioned on market-oriented reforms  Liberalization of trade rules; reduction of public sector

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science10 Alternative Development Models  Socialism  Adopted/adapted in many developing countries  E.g. “African socialism” in Tanzania  Trading blocs rather than world market  “Small Is Beautiful”  E.F. Schumacher (1973) E.F. Schumacher E.F. Schumacher  Industrial-scale production unsustainable  “sustainable development”  Micro-credit, especially Grameen Bank in Bangladesh Micro-creditGrameen Bank Micro-creditGrameen Bank  In “developed” countries: local currencies, community land trusts

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science11 Democracy and Development  Correlation  Wealthy countries more likely to be democratic  Poor countries more likely to be authoritarian  Should poor countries strive to democratize in order to develop economies?  Yes: more accountable state will try to benefit public  No: demands for immediate consumption benefits will undermine necessary investment  Should they implement capitalism, assuming that democracy will follow?  Yes: typical model for advanced democracies  Yes: seems to have worked for “Asian tigers”  No: non-democratic governments not necessarily committed to capitalist reforms (can be kleptocracies)  Prezworski  In poorest countries, doesn’t matter whether regime is democratic or authoritarian (too few resources)  At “middle incomes,” slight advantage to non-democratic regimes in economic development

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science12 Sub-Saharan Africa  Particularly poor record on democratization and development  Some successes in Asia, head start in Latin America  Many have become poorer and less democratic; few have developed  Collier and Gunning  Focus on development  Are major problems domestic or external, policy or destiny?

October 15, 2015October 15, 2015October 15, 2015Introduction to Political Science13 Collier and Gunning  Domestic – Destiny  Poor health (tropical climate, AIDS)  High population growth  Poor soils  Low population density and high ethnic diversity  Many small countries (due to colonialism)  Domestic – Policy  Large public sector (ethnic conflict, chokes off private sector)  Poor public services (education, infrastructure)  Intrusive economic policy (price controls, regulation)  External – Destiny  Many landlocked countries (hinders trade)  Deterioration of terms of trade for primary commodities  Foreign aid (conditions; displacement of private investment)  External – Policy  High exchange rates and trade barriers  Large foreign debt