Rising to the Challenge of Climate Change in the South East Local Presenter & Organisation Partner’s Logo

OutlineOutline l What is climate change? l How will the South East be affected? l What is the South East Climate Change Partnership? l How is [local organisation] involved? l How do I find out more? l What is climate change? l How will the South East be affected? l What is the South East Climate Change Partnership? l How is [local organisation] involved? l How do I find out more?

What is climate change? l Who to believe? l Is it happening? l Isn’t it ‘natural’? l Can it be stopped? l Who to believe? l Is it happening? l Isn’t it ‘natural’? l Can it be stopped?

Climate change: who to believe? l Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) l US Environmental Protection Agency l US National Academy of Sciences l Kyoto Protocol signatories l Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) l US Environmental Protection Agency l US National Academy of Sciences l Kyoto Protocol signatories

Climate change: is it happening? Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (Met Office)

Climate change: is it happening? Increase in global surface temperature over the past 1000 years – and projections for this century. Source: IPCC

Climate change: isn’t it natural? l Climate has always changed – and always will. Natural factors include: –Changes in the Sun’s energy output –Changes in the Earth’s tilt & orbit –The effects of volcanoes l But global climate also responds to changes in greenhouse gases: –Carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, CFCs, water vapour… l Climate has always changed – and always will. Natural factors include: –Changes in the Sun’s energy output –Changes in the Earth’s tilt & orbit –The effects of volcanoes l But global climate also responds to changes in greenhouse gases: –Carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, nitrous oxide, CFCs, water vapour…

Climate change: isn’t it natural? l CO 2 levels have risen by 31% in 250 years: –Pre-industrial = 280ppm –End of 20 th century = 368ppm l CO 2 levels could more than double again by the 2080s l Global climate takes time to respond to increasing GHG levels l Changes we have seen so far have been a combination of natural and human factors l CO 2 levels have risen by 31% in 250 years: –Pre-industrial = 280ppm –End of 20 th century = 368ppm l CO 2 levels could more than double again by the 2080s l Global climate takes time to respond to increasing GHG levels l Changes we have seen so far have been a combination of natural and human factors

Climate change: isn’t it natural? How “Natural”, “Man-made” & “Mixed” models compare with observations of rising temperature. Source: IPCC

Climate change: can it be stopped? l Emissions of GHGs now will affect climate from the 2050s onwards l But we are already ‘locked in’ to climate change from past emissions l Some change is inevitable! l Emissions of GHGs now will affect climate from the 2050s onwards l But we are already ‘locked in’ to climate change from past emissions l Some change is inevitable!

How will the SE be affected? l How will our climate change? l What are the challenges? l How will our climate change? l What are the challenges?

How will the SE climate change? l New climate change scenarios were produced for the UK in April 2002 l Changes in 26 variables –e.g. temperature & rainfall etc l 3 Timescales –‘2020s’, ‘2050s’ & ‘2080s’ l Most changes will be more extreme in the South East than elsewhere l New climate change scenarios were produced for the UK in April 2002 l Changes in 26 variables –e.g. temperature & rainfall etc l 3 Timescales –‘2020s’, ‘2050s’ & ‘2080s’ l Most changes will be more extreme in the South East than elsewhere

How will the SE climate change? l Changes will include Temperature & Rainfall - plus: l Soil moisture l Humidity l Cloud cover l Solar energy reaching ground level (UV) l Sea level l Extreme events: –Storms –Flooding –Droughts l Changes will include Temperature & Rainfall - plus: l Soil moisture l Humidity l Cloud cover l Solar energy reaching ground level (UV) l Sea level l Extreme events: –Storms –Flooding –Droughts

How will the SE climate change? Change in UK Summer Temperatures for the 2080s (Medium-High Scenario) Source: UKCIP

How will the SE climate change?

How will the SE climate change?

What are the challenges? l Some further climate change is inevitable –Delayed climate response to GHGs l Climate change will mean adapting the way we plan and manage: –Our countryside –Our built environment & heritage –Our water resources –Our floodplains –Our coastal defences –Our businesses l Some further climate change is inevitable –Delayed climate response to GHGs l Climate change will mean adapting the way we plan and manage: –Our countryside –Our built environment & heritage –Our water resources –Our floodplains –Our coastal defences –Our businesses

John Craven – SECCP President “Combating the future effects of climate change is one of the biggest challenges facing the world today, especially in low-lying densely- populated areas such as the South East of England. We must be prepared.”

Adaptive planning l Integrated approach to decisions l Climate change will continue l It will impact on the South East l We need to: –Reduce risks –Take opportunities –Avoid increasing future causes of change  Make use of best current understanding  Involve stakeholders l Integrated approach to decisions l Climate change will continue l It will impact on the South East l We need to: –Reduce risks –Take opportunities –Avoid increasing future causes of change  Make use of best current understanding  Involve stakeholders

South East Climate Change Partnership l A partnership of public, private & voluntary sectors created to: l Investigate, inform and advise on the threats & opportunities from the impacts of climate change in South East England l Promote adaptive planning in the region. l A partnership of public, private & voluntary sectors created to: l Investigate, inform and advise on the threats & opportunities from the impacts of climate change in South East England l Promote adaptive planning in the region.

SE Climate Change Partnership l Partners include: l Public sector –Local & regional Government –National agencies l Private sector –Water companies –Environmental technology & consultancy l Voluntary sector –Wildlife charities –Heritage charities l Partners include: l Public sector –Local & regional Government –National agencies l Private sector –Water companies –Environmental technology & consultancy l Voluntary sector –Wildlife charities –Heritage charities

The response… l The partnership approach & regional coverage help us, by –Demonstrating credibility in addressing the issues –Building confidence in developing our responses –Acting as a catalyst in bringing together sources of solutions l The partnership approach & regional coverage help us, by –Demonstrating credibility in addressing the issues –Building confidence in developing our responses –Acting as a catalyst in bringing together sources of solutions

SECCP activities l Key sectors: l Agriculture l Biodiversity l Business community l Emergency planning l Planning l Tourism l Utilities & infrastructure l Key sectors: l Agriculture l Biodiversity l Business community l Emergency planning l Planning l Tourism l Utilities & infrastructure

SECCP activities l Annual forum –Members’ AGM & stakeholders conference l Website: –Decision makers & public l Quarterly bulletin –Members & stakeholders l Training & Workshops –Skills & experience l Projects –Research & demonstration l Annual forum –Members’ AGM & stakeholders conference l Website: –Decision makers & public l Quarterly bulletin –Members & stakeholders l Training & Workshops –Skills & experience l Projects –Research & demonstration

For further information l XXXX: l Contact name l l Phone number l SECCP: l Mark Goldthorpe, Programme Manager l l Tel: l XXXX: l Contact name l l Phone number l SECCP: l Mark Goldthorpe, Programme Manager l l Tel: