Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA Presented by: Jim O’Brien Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden COAPS, The Florida.

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Presentation transcript:

Optimum Big Rain Indicator of Extremes for the Southeast USA Presented by: Jim O’Brien Collaborators: Preston Leftwich and David Zierden COAPS, The Florida State University

Hurricanes and Tornadoes are Categorical Hurricanes Saffir-Simpson Scale CategoryWind Speed Cat mph Cat mph Cat mph Cat mph Cat 5> 155 mph Tornadoes Enhanced Fujita Scale CategoryWind Speed EF mph EF mph EF mph EF mph EF mph EF5> 200 mph Both scales are based on damage potential.

Gamma Distribution Alpha > 1.0 Alpha < 1.0 Gamma Function Generalized Gamma pdf

Rainfall Events Fitted to a Gamma Distribution

Pensacola, FL

Bartow, FL

Potential Applied Users Water utility managers Water management districts Stormwater design and control Engineering (retention pond design and maintenance) Road and other construction Agricultural specialists Flooding potential outlooks Wildcard – human health

Proposed Scale for Heavy Rainfall Heavy Rainfall Event (2-day) CategoryAmountProbability R11-2 inches80-88% R inches88-96% R inches96-99% R4> 3 inches> 99%

Station Distribution Map Heavy rain events based on 2-day totals. NWS Cooperative Observers only report once daily, usually midnight-to-midnight. Rainfall does not automatically stop at midnight, 2-day totals better describe discrete events. In some cases, 3-day totals may be applicable

Exceedance Probabilities by Month Tarpon Springs, FL March Category 2 Rainfall Event

Exceedance Probabilities by Month Tarpon Springs, FL April Category 2 Rainfall Event

Exceedence Probabilities by ENSO Phase Tarpon Springs, March Tarpon Springs, July

Probability of Two or More Events > Two Inches

Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods Orlando, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event (2 inches or greater)

Seasonal Probability by 20-year periods High Springs, FL Probability of at least one Cat 2 Rainfall Event (2 inches or greater)

Southeastern Rainfall Extremes Dr. James J. O’Brien July 10, 2012 AASC Annual Meeting in Sandestin

Kissimmee Rainfall

The End

The End

Two-Inch Two-day Events

Black: Empirical Red: Exponential Green: Gamma (max liklihood) Blue: Gamma (Method of Moments) Purple: Gamma (Method of Moments via L-moments)