RPS Land Use and Transportation Modeling Results Presentation to RPS TAC & MPO TAC Brian Gregor Transportation Planning Analysis Unit May 17, 2006

Presentation Outline Modeling background Description of land use model (LUSDR) Land use results Transportation results

Modeling Background

Land Use and Transportation Planning Legend County Urban Growth Area Poss. Urban Reserve Highway Poss. Highway Urban development goes in urban growth boundaries. County lands are predominantly resource zoning and very low density development. Urban reserves are future sources of land for inclusion into urban growth boundaries. They affect future transportation demand. Highway location affects land development patterns.

Approaches to Land Use and Transportation Modeling Most common practice is to make aspirational- concensus land use forecasts. These are fixed for all transportation modeling. With integrated land use and transport models, land use allocations vary with transportation, but almost all just produce one land use pattern. The LUSDR model is also sensitive to transportation policies but recognizes that land many develop in many ways.

Why Evaluate Alternative Land Use Patterns? The overall number of trips may not change much, but the patterns of trip origins and destinations will. Roadway traffic can be very different depending on the land use assumptions. Assessment of many plausible land use patterns help identify potential problems. O O OO D D DD

Modeling Multiple Scenarios to Assess Risks A B A Traffic Volume Number of Scenarios B Traffic Volume

Goal of RPS: To achieve regional consensus on where urban reserves should be designated to accommodate a doubling of population. Modeling Objectives –Develop a moderately large set of plausible future land use patterns. –Model the effects of the different land use patterns on the transportation system. –Identify key features of land use patterns affecting transportation performance. Jackson County Regional Problem Solving (RPS) Study

What is LUSDR and How Does It Work?

Land Use Scenario DevelopeR Creates variation through stochastic microsimulation. Stochastic means that there is a random component to the model but average behavior is replicated. Microsimulation means that individual household, business and development decisions are modeled.

Stochastic Microsimulation = all of these places meet requirements Shopping center might be located here in one simulation Might be located here in another simulation

Start with Population by Age & Total Population Growth

HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent Bldgtype Hh1 h2 w2 a1 i4 rent SFD Hh2 h2 w1 a4 i2 rent SFD Hh3 h2 w3 a1 i2 rent A5P Hh4 h3 w2 a2 i3 own SFD Hh5 h1 w2 a2 i1 own SFD Hh6 h4 w4 a2 i5 own SFD Hh7 h2 w3 a1 i3 rent SFD Hh8 h2 w1 a2 i5 own SFD Hh9 h2 w3 a3 i1 rent SFD Hh10 h2 w1 a3 i5 own SFD Hh11 h2 w1 a3 i4 rent SFA Hh12 h3 w2 a4 i4 rent A24 Hh13 h4 w3 a2 i4 rent MH Hh14 h2 w2 a2 i2 own SFD Generate Households

Comparisons of Observed and Simulated Household Building Types Building Type Categories 1990 Census 1990 Estimated 2000 Census 2000 Estimated Single Family Detached Single Family Attached Unit Apartment Unit Apartment Mobile Home Other

Assign to Developments HhSize Worker AgeOfHead Income Ownrent Bldgtype DevId Hh1 h1 w1 a1 i5 own SFDH SFDH-161 Hh2 h1 w1 a1 i3 own MHpark MHpark-1 Hh3 h1 w1 a1 i4 rent SFDM SFDM-126 Hh4 h1 w1 a1 i1 rent SFDM SFDM-207 Hh5 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-758 Hh6 h1 w1 a1 i2 rent SFDM SFDM-660

Generate Employment Establishments and Put in Developments Id DevType LocType NumEmp UnitArea TotArea UnitPrice Period ACC-3 ACC EmpGrp p4 ACC-1 ACC EmpGrp p1 ACC-12 ACC EmpGrp p2 ACC-14 ACC EmpGrp p4 ACC-8 ACC EmpGrp p3 ACC-4 ACC EmpGrp p1

Locate Developments For each development –Identify set of candiate TAZs –Choose TAZ based on preference probabilities (considering slope, distance to interchange, traffic exposure, accessibility) For each TAZ –Balance supply and demand based on plan compatibility and willingness to pay Repeat as necessary until all developments are sited

Preference Probability Example 1: Construction & Manufacturing

Retail Preference Probabilities Preference Probability Example 1: Retail and similar

Land Use Results

How to Interpret the Shapes of Box Percentile Plots Employment center line shows the median value fifty percent of the values are between the top and bottom horizontal lines top and bottom show the range of values the width indicates the relative frequency of the value 5

Transportation Results

VMT by Functional Class and Scenario

ADT by Location and Scenario

ADT by Location and Scenario

RPS TAC Project Should be Compared With Impacts

Next Steps Complete analysis of transportation performance measures. Show measures of transportation results as well as variation in measures. Identify transportation problems. Analyze relationship between transportation problems and land use patterns. Write up results. Develop presentation of results.