IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy Joint Research Centre (JRC) JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 1 POMI EMISSION INVENTORY

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 2 1. Checked the procedure followed for the preparation of the emission inventory base case

IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy Joint Research Centre (JRC) JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 3 NAZIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY EMISSIONI GRIGLIATE REGIONAL EMISSION INVENTORY (INEMAR) UNECE/EMEP Urban road  Italia + EMEP su griglia  nazioni confinanti PROXY DB INPUT FOR MODELERS Linear Point Areal + Linear Point sources Area + linear + point Land use + Profiles IMPRESAREO RDBMS Highway + Extraurban road without coordinate

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 4 2. Intercomparison within regional/national PM10 emission inventory ISPRA (ex APAT)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 5 2. Intercomparison within regional/national NOX emission inventory ISPRA (ex APAT)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 6 2. Intercomparison within regional/national emission inventory

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 7 2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory (regions providing the complete INEMAR)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 8 2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 9 2. Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - PM10

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR Intercomparison within POMI/national emission inventory - NOx

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR Which are the main sources of PM ?

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 12 C.A.T.I. (Computer AidedTelephone Interview) for families 3.1 Residential wood combustion? Activity dataEmission factors ? Temporal profile

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR Residential wood combustion?

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR Residential wood combustion? Activity dataEmission factors PM ? Temporal profile Traditional fireplace Traditional stove Close fireplace Innovative stove BAT Traditional fireplace Traditional stove Close fireplace Innovative stove BAT INEMARGUIDEBOOKIIASAPMNOxVOC

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 15 PM Emission inventory

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR Residential wood combustion? Activity dataEmission factors Temporal profile ?

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 17 Fuel consumption for areal traffic Linear traffic Copert IV (E.F.) Linear traffic emissions Fuel sold Fuel consumption factors Fuel used Copert IV (E.F.) Urban traffic emissions 3.2 Road transport?

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 18 Emission considering or not the gradient of the street for different vehicle load 3.2 Road transport?

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 19 Applied a different methodology for estimating emission from road transport sectors (ARTEMIS/HBEFA) Considering the so-called go-trough traffic Analisi di incertezza aggiornata sui fattori di emissione COPERT IV Still ongoing…

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 20 POMI domain

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 21 POMI domain

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 22 POMI domain

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 23 Base Case Isoprene emissions 2005cle 2005cle_nobiog

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 24 Base Case Isoprene emissions BVOC – Po valley domain - Italian emission inventory: 200 kton/y - MEGAN estimate:700 kton/y All Biogenic Anthrop

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 25 Grazie per l’attenzione!

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 26 After the February POMI meeting… The witch hunting is over: PM emission inventory are now double checked!! Giuseppe Cinzia

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 27

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 29 RAINS-Europe Model is Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation, developed by IIASA, which has been officially used for the negotiations in the context of both the Gothenburg protocol and the 2001/81/EC Directive (NEC Directive). RAINS/GAINS

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 30 HARMONISATION CLE SCENARIO RAINS – IT ENERGY MARKAL (MARKET ALLOCATION) is model of optimization of the energy system Industry Based on national statistics, projections of economic activity and non-energy macro-economic factors such as GDP Control strategy It takes into account the existing legislation Regional level

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT Harmonization CLE Scenario  Energy  Productive Activities  Control strategies

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 32 Emission scenario CLE (Current LEgislation) 4 kinds of source emissions:  Diffused emission  SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants  Road Transport  Point sources 2012 CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 33 Emission scenario CLE (Current LEgislation) 4 kinds of source emissions:  Diffused emission  SNAP02 – Non industrial combustion plants  Road Transport  Point sources 2012 CLE – Lombardy region Interpolation of RAINS DATA PAE – regional energy plan Technological scenario and fuels consumption scenario Provided by ARPA Lombardia

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT Harmonization CLE Scenario  Energy  Productive Activities  Control strategies Base case CLE Scenario  PAE –regional energy plan  Road transport trends  Rains for diffused emission

IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy Joint Research Centre (JRC) JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 36 Emission scenario

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 37 EuropePo-ValleyLombardy 2005 BC 2005 BC BC2 (emissions Temp fac.+met)2005 BC CLE 2012 AQP 2012 CES 2012 MFR 2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ? 2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ? 2012 CLE (Meteorology 2) 2012 CLE (Bound. Cond. CHIMERE) 2012 CLE (Po backg) 2015 CLE 2015 CLE (AQP?)2015 AQP 2020 CLE 2020 CLE (AQP?) 2020 AQP 2020 CES 2020 MFR CHIMERE – EMEP – CAMx – RCG -- AURORA

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR (CLE & AQP) RAINS - IT REGIONAL INPUT or PLAN Harmonization CLE Scenario  Energy  Productive Activities  Control strategies Air quality measures AQP Base case CLE Scenario  PAE –regional energy plan  Road transport trends  Rains for area emission Air quality measures AQP

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR AQP – Lombardy region a. TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGICAL FUEL PUBLIC TRANSPORT POLLUTION CHARGE

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR AQP – Lombardy region b. ENERGY EFFICIENCY RENEWABLE

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR /2020 (CLE & AQP) RAINS - IT Harmonization CLE Scenario  Energy  Productive Activities  Control strategies Air quality measures AQP

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 42 As soon as possible….  2012 AQP  2015 CLE  2015 AQP  2020 CLE  2020 AQP  2012 CLE (Lombardy background) ?  2012 CLE (Po traff & Inemar 2007) ?  MFR will be realized for RIAT. It will be used for POMI too in order to guarantee the consistency POMI/RIAT (availability of their data)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 43 Thank you for your attention !

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR AQP – Lombardy region a. TRANSPORT

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 45 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 46 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012 Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 47 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE Definition of the fleet composition for the year 2012 Definition of the vehicle mileage for each euro category in 2012 Definition of an average emission factor for the LDV sector, weighted using mileage and vehicle number - CLE scenario

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 48 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles replaced by EURO V) 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE FE 2012AQP

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 49 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V) Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE FE 2012AQP E LDV,<EURO3

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 50 Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in CLE scenario Estimation of an average emission factors for the LDV sector in AQP scenario (all pre EURO 3 vehicles converted to EURO V) Estimation of the contribution of the pre EURO 3 vehicle to the total LDV transport emission Calculation of emission variation 2012 AQP – Lombardy region FE 2012CLE FE 2012AQP E LDV,<EURO3 E LDV, AQP = E LDV,<EURO3 *FE 2012AQP /FE 2012CLE

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 51 Preliminary results PM10NOxCOV -61%-36%-68% 2012 AQP – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE – Po Valley Emission inventory 2005 for all the regions of the Po Valley (last version – july 2008) RAINS CLE SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, COV, NH3 Linear interpolation INEMAR 2012 CLE macrosectors

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE – Po Valley RAINS SNAP NOMENCLAURE Interpolation 2012/2005

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR AQP – PO valley RAINS AQP SNAP NOMENCLAURE  AQP: 2010 AQP CLE 2012 AQP : 2012 CLE +  AQP

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 55 OPEN issue…to discuss Emission inventory: 2008 INEMAR for all the regions of the Po Valley Different traffic emission model (ARTEMIS vs COPERT) Transport model for the entire Po Valley Emission scenarioPoValleyLombardy BC CLE2012CLE (RL) AQP2012 AQP (RL) CLE2012 AQP (RL) MFR (RAINS) CLE (RAINS)2015 CLE (RL) MFR (RAINS) CLE (RAINS) MFR (RAINS)

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 56 INEMAR – traffic data and emissions Areal traffic (urban) Lienar traffic

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 57 INEMAR Traffic emissions Algorithms proposed by Corinair COPERT IV methodology: PM exhaust + PM vehicle tyres, brake and road surface wear. non-urban (highway and other main roads) / urban driving An Equilibrium Traffic Assignment Algorithm model, provides data traffic flows and driving speeds on all the region road network (9000 roads), for 4 vehicle categories. Temporal distribution profiles (4 seasons, 3 days, 3 hours) are also provided. Data on urban traffic (mileage) is assessed by a “fuel balance” at regional level

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 58 Diffused emissions INEMAR 2005 RAINS CLE ( ) SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3 Data interpolation INEMAR 2012 CLE classification 2012 CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 59 Area emissions INEMAR 2005 RAINS CLE ( ) SO2, NOx, PM10, COV, NH3 Data interpolation INEMAR 2012 CLE classification 2012 CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 60 Non industrial combustion plants PAE – regional plan for energy policy INEMAR 2005 Emission Factors E 2012 I,C,S = E 2005I,C,S * FC AC *FC FES 2012 CLE – Lombardy region CNG GAS OIL FUEL OIL GPL BIOMASS CNG OILFUEL HEATING AGRICOLTURE

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 61 Non industrial combustion plants 2012 CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 62 Road Transport E =  FEi * NVi * Pi Technology scenarioFuel consumption scenario Euro 0 Euro 10? 2012 CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR 63 Road Transport INEMAR COPERT CLE – Lombardy region

JRC Milan 30/09/2009 – INEMAR CLE – Lombardy region