More Challenges for Big Coal Tim Light Senior Vice President Fuel, Emissions, and Logistics Southern Coals Conference March 5, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

More Challenges for Big Coal Tim Light Senior Vice President Fuel, Emissions, and Logistics Southern Coals Conference March 5, 2009

2 “Safe Harbor” Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These factors include electric load and customer growth; weather conditions, including storms; available sources and costs of, and transportation for, fuels and performance of fuel suppliers and transporters; availability of generating capacity and performance of generating plants; the ability to recover regulatory assets and stranded costs in connection with deregulation; the ability to recover increases in fuel and other energy costs through regulated or competitive electric rates; the ability to build or acquire generating capacity (including our ability to obtain any necessary regulatory approval and permits) when needed at acceptable prices and terms and to recover those costs (including the costs of projects that are cancelled) through applicable rate cases or competitive rates; new legislation, litigation and government regulation, including requirements for reduced emissions of sulfur, nitrogen, mercury, carbon, soot or particulate matter and other substances; timing and resolution of pending and future rate cases, negotiations and other regulatory decisions (including rate or other recovery of new investments in generation, distribution and transmission service and environmental compliance); resolution of litigation (including disputes arising from the bankruptcy of Enron Corp. and related matters); our ability to constrain operation and maintenance costs; the economic climate and growth or contraction in our service territory and changes in market demand and demographic patterns; inflationary and interest rate trends; volatility in the financial markets, particularly developments affecting the availability of capital on reasonable terms and developments impacting our ability to refinance existing debt at attractive rates; our ability to develop and execute a strategy based on a view regarding prices of electricity, natural gas, coal, nuclear fuel and other energy related commodities; changes in the creditworthiness of the counterparties with whom we have contractual arrangements, including participants in the energy trading market; actions of rating agencies, including changes in the ratings of debt; volatility and changes in markets for electricity, natural gas and other energy-related commodities; changes in utility regulation, including the implementation of the recently-passed utility law in Ohio and the allocation of costs within regional transmission organizations; accounting pronouncements periodically issued by accounting standard-setting bodies; the impact of volatility in the capital markets on the value of the investments held by our pension, other postretirement benefit plans and nuclear decommissioning trust and the impact on future funding requirements; prices for power we generate and sell at wholesale; changes in technology, particularly with respect to new, developing or alternative sources of generation; other risks and unforeseen events, including wars, the effects or terrorism (including increased security costs), embargoes and other catastrophic events; and other factors discussed in the reports, including Forms 10-K and 10-Q, filed from time to time by the company with the SEC.

3 Coal/Lignite 66% Nat. Gas/Oil 23% Nuclear 6% Pumped Storage/ Hydro/Wind 5% AEP’s Generation Fleet 38,721 MW Capacity Company Overview 5.1 million customers in 11 states Industry-leading size and scale of assets : AssetSize Industry Rank Domestic Generation~38,700 MW# 2 Transmission~39,000 miles# 1 Distribution~213,000 miles# 1

4 Coal Procurement – 2009 Projected Coal Stats:  98+% contracted for 2009  Avg. delivered price ~ $47/ton in 2008  Projecting 15% increase in 2009 ~ $52/ton AEP burns ~ 77 million tons of coal per year AEP West AEP East Total AEP System Northern Appalachia 30% Powder River Basin 35% Central Appalachia 26% Lignite 6% Colorado/Utah 2% Illinois Basin 1% Northern Appalachia 39% Illinois Basin 1% Colorado/Utah 3% Powder River Basin 23% Central Appalachia 34% Powder River Basin 75% Lignite 25%

5 Controlled Assets  Approximately 9,100 Railcars - owned & leased  Approximately 2,800 Barges - commercial & captive  82 Boats - commercial & captive  Cook Coal Terminal with an annual transload capacity of approximately 18 Million Tons  Alliance Railcar Maintenance Facility maintains approximately 7,000 railcars annually  Dolet Hills Lignite Company with approximately 3.3 Million tons production annually  Conesville Coal Preparation Plant with approximately 2 Million tons processed annually  Central Coal Lab with approximately 28,000 samples processed annually

6 The New Administration— Energy and the Environment  Energy Legislation -- A First Priority  For electric utilities: Federal RPS likely  Climate Legislation -- Also a Priority  Passage is complex  Further Air Emissions Requirements -- SO2, NOx, and Hg???

7 The Coal Gap (Electric Perspectives – 3 rd Quarter 2008 Survey)  69% of those surveyed think of climate change as fact  72% of these believe the matter is urgent  Coal only accounts for ~20% of power generation  Climate change can be addressed through renewables and energy efficiency, and  2/3 think climate change can be addressed “without serious negative consequences”

8 Our Position On Climate Change The scientific community, led largely by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, has provided scientific evidence that human activity has contributed to global warming. AEP is helping to lead the discussion nationally and internationally to find a reasonable, achievable approach and enact federal energy policy that is realistic in time frame and does “not” seriously harm the U.S. economy. We also are developing advanced coal technologies so that “coal” can continue to be the important energy resource it is today. We support the adoption of an economy wide, cap-and-trade greenhouse gas reduction program that allows us to provide reliable, reasonably priced electricity to our customers and that fosters the international participation that is necessary to make meaningful progress.

9 EIA Base Case 2007 A Portfolio is Needed and CCS is Key TechnologyEIA 2007 ReferenceTarget EfficiencyLoad Growth ~ +1.5%/yrLoad Growth ~ +1.1%/yr Renewables30 GWe by GWe by 2030 Nuclear Generation12.5 GWe by GWe by 2030 Advanced Coal Generation No Existing Plant Upgrades 40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020– GWe Plant Upgrades 46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030 CCSNoneWidely Deployed After 2020 PHEVNone 10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter DER< 0.1% of Base Load in 20305% of Base Load in 2030 Achieving all targets is aggressive, but potentially feasible

10 AEP’s GHG Reduction Portfolio Renewables (e.g. 800 Mw of Existing Wind 1000 Mw New Wind PPA by 2011 Biomass Co-firing) Offsets & GHG Markets (e.g. Chicago Climate Exchange, Forest Preservation and Tree Planting, Methane Capture from Livestock, 2.5 MM CO2eTons/yr by 2011 Goal) New Technology: Clean Coal/CCS (e.g. Chilled Ammonia Retrofit, IGCC) Efficiency (e.g. Coal Plant Heat Rate Improvements DSM and Energy Efficiency) AEP is investing in a portfolio of GHG reduction alternatives

11 The Challenge: CCS is Expensive  CCS w/ Geologic Sequestration  Other renewable, advanced geothermal and/or solar  Carbon Capture for Enhanced Oil Recovery  New Biomass Generation  Dispatch of additional gas vs. inefficient coal  Biomass Co-firing  Forestry  New Wind  Nuclear  Energy Efficiency  Methane Offsets $/ton CO 2 e $0 $50+

12 Key Points  Expected federal environmental policy will require further emissions reductions from existing and future coal and natural gas fired power plants  No silver bullet – Portfolio mix of resources will be required to satisfy future energy needs  Carbon capture and storage and enhanced oil and natural gas recovery are critically needed technologies for baseload generation to comply with anticipated federal CO2 emissions reduction requirements

13 Mind the Gap !!!